State of the Day - Montana

The Treasure State may slowly be changing its political identity, along with much of the West. The state seemed heavily Republican through the 1990s and into the middle part of this decade. Democrats have surged back in the past few years, however. Brian Schweitzer won the Governor’s Mansion in 2004 and easily kept it in 2008. Senator Max Baucus won two easy reelections and Democrat Jon Tester knocked off Senator Conrad Burns in 2006. Republican missteps along the way helped. Republican Governor Judy Martz became nonviable after helping to cover up her Chief of Staff’s drunk driving homicide. Burns had too many ties to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff, and Republicans couldn’t seem to find a mentally stable candidate to run against Baucus.

Yet, the Democratic surge goes beyond Republican mistakes. Barack Obama was very competitive in polling here and nearly won the state in November. 2010 should be a slow year for Montana politics. Democrats want to show their gains are for real in 2012 by reelecting Tester and delivering Montana for Barack Obama. Both goals are within reach.


President - 3 Electoral Votes

2000: George Bush (R) 58%, Al Gore (D) 33%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 59%, John Kerry (D) 39%
2008: John McCain (R) 49%, Barack Obama (D) 47%

Obama did much better in Montana than one would have thought, even accounting for his solid national victory. He did relatively better in the West as a whole, and the fading memories of the unpopular Clinton environmental policies had to have helped. Democrats probably cannot win a culturally oriented national election here. However, if the focus remains on economic issues, anything is possible. Montana Democrats have surged here over this decade. With a little more surge and attention, they could turn Montana blue for 2012.

Governor - Brian Schweitzer (D)

2000: Judy Martz (R) 51%, Mark O’Keefe (D) 47%
2004: Brian Schweitzer (D) 50%, Bob Brown (R) 46%
2008: Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) 66%, Roy Brown (R) 33%

Schweitzer and his bolo tie wearing, joke telling, cowboy persona has played to boffo reviews in Montana. I suspect you’ll see him in the Obama Administration at some point, especially since he cannot run for reelection in 2012. One would think Republicans would have the edge to replace him, but given Schweitzer’s popularity in the Democratic trend here, that probably is not a safe assumption.

Senior Senator - Max Baucus (D)

1996: Sen. Max Baucus (D) 50%, Denny Rehberg (R) 45%
2002: Sen. Max Baucus (D) 63%, Mike Taylor (R) 32%
2008: Sen. Max Baucus (D) 73%, Bob Kelleher (R) 27%

Baucus has come full circle in thirty years in the Senate. First elected when Liberal Rocky Mountain Democrats were common, he survived into an era where Republicans dominated Montana and the West. He received a close race in 1996 and was widely considered one of the most vulnerable incumbents for 2002. Marc Racicot probably could have beaten him that year. Instead, he faced a candidate who seemed mentally unstable and won easily. Democrats have since made a comeback and he won a smashing victory over a joke candidate in 2008. It is impossible to say what will happen in 2014, but Baucus has regained a definite edge.

Junior Senator - Jon Tester (D)

1994: Sen. Conrad Burns (R) 62%, Jack Mudd (D) 38%
2000: Sen. Conrad Burns (R) 51%, Brian Schweitzer (D) 47%
2006: Jon Tester (D) 49%, Sen. Conrad Burns (R) 48%

Based on Montana’s general conservative tendencies, and Tester’s narrow win over a scandal tarred incumbent with a big mouth in a huge Democratic year, I’d say this race leaned toward the Republicans in 2012. However, Tester is good fit for Montana and the Democrats have improved their position here. The Republicans don’t seem to have a reasonable candidate either. All this puts Tester in better shape that he has any right to be.

House At Large - Denny Rehberg (R)

2004: Rep. Denny Rehberg (R) 64%, Tracy Velazquez (D) 33%
2006: Rep. Denny Rehberg (R) 59%, Monica Lindeen (D) 39%
2008: Rep. Denny Rehberg (R) 64%, John Driscoll (D) 32%

Seemingly the only competent Republican left in Montana, Rehberg should be safe for as long as he runs.