State of the Day - Nebraska

The Cornhusker State has long been one of the most Republican states in the Union. Over the last thirteen Presidential elections, its composite vote total for Republicans has been over sixty percent. Democrats have been somewhat more competitive on the state level. Every so often, a Republican Governor signs a tax increase. Three times in the last forty years this has led directly to a Democratic Governor, each of whom (Jim Exon, Bob Kerrey, and Ben Nelson) served in the Senate.

It has gotten tougher for Democrats. The last two Republican Governors did not repeat the cycle and have remained popular. Nelson lost to the unknown Chuck Hagel for Senate in 1996 before barely beating a poor candidate in 2000. Yet Democrats have some hope of building more systemic success here. Barack Obama tried unbelievably hard and won one of the state’s electoral votes. Perhaps this means that simply being a Democrat won’t be quite so onerous in the future. We probably won’t find out in 2010, when Governor Dave Heineman and the state’s Representatives seem safe. We’ll get a better idea of the future of Nebraska politics in 2012, when Nelson comes up for reelection again.


President - 5 Electoral Votes

2000: George Bush (R) 62%, Al Gore (D) 33%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 66%, John Kerry (D) 33%
2008: John McCain (R) 57%, Barack Obama (D) 42%

Democrats will not come close to carrying Nebraska anytime soon. Nebraska splits its electoral votes, with two going to the statewide winner and one going to the winner of each Congressional district. This never mattered until 2008. Barack Obama put a huge organization into Omaha and edged out a very narrow victory in the Second District. The efforts made a difference. Nebraska is usually about 15 points more Republican than the nation. This time, it was 11 points more Republican than the nation. Usually the Second District is about six points more Democratic than Nebraska as a whole. This time, it was 8 points more Democratic. No place in the country shows the effectiveness of the Democratic turnout operation in 2008 more starkly.

If Obama remains popular, and redistricting doesn’t seriously change the district lines, a repeat performance is possible. While some stories appeared about the importance of it, it is highly unlikely that Obama will need one additional electoral vote if he is in striking distance of winning the district.

Governor - Dave Heineman (R)

1998: Mike Johanns (R) 54%, Bill Hoppner (D) 46%
2002: Gov. Mike Johanns (R) 69%, Stormy Dean (D) 28%
2006: Gov. Dave Heineman (R) 73%, David Hahn (D) 24%

Heineman has beaten one of the most legendary figures in Nebraska history in the Republican primary, won the largest general election victory in Nebraska in 62 years, and has a 64 percent approval rating. I’d say he’s safe for another term.

Senior Senator - Ben Nelson (D)

1994: Sen. Bob Kerrey (D) 55%, Jan Stoney (R) 45%
2000: Ben Nelson (D) 51%, Don Stenberg (R) 49%
2006: Sen. Ben Nelson (D) 64%, Pete Ricketts (R) 36%

Nelson is personally very popular and has compiled the most conservative record of any Senate Democrat. In a vacuum or in a Democratic or even neutral year, he’d probably win easily. In a state as Republican as Nebraska, he would have a hard time in a truly Republican year. He probably couldn’t survive if Obama turned in a Jimmy Carter performance in 2012. That, even more than the quality of opponent Republicans put up, will determine Nelson’s fate.

Junior Senator - Mike Johanns (R)

1996: Chuck Hagel (R) 56%, Ben Nelson (D) 42%
2002: Sen. Chuck Hagel (R) 83%, Charlie Matulka (D) 15%
2008: Mike Johanns (R) 58%, Scott Kleeb (D) 40%

A popular former Republican Governor in the extremely red state of Nebraska, Johanns would need to royally mess up to be ever have any sort of trouble.

House 1 - Jeff Fortenberry (R)

2004: Jeff Fortenberry (R) 54%, Matt Connealy (D) 43%
2006: Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R) 58%, Maxine Moul (D) 42%
2008: Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R) 70%, Max Yashirin (D) 30%

This is not a district that is realistically going to elect a Democrat. It took Fortenberry three tries to put up a big number here, but he has now firmly entrenched himself.

House 2 - Lee Terry (R)

2004: Rep. Lee Terry (R) 61%, Nancy Thompson (D) 36%
2006: Rep. Lee Terry (R) 55%, Jim Esch (D) 45%
2008: Rep. Lee Terry (R) 52%, Jim Esch (D) 48%

This Omaha district is the only one in Nebraska that could actually elect a Democrat, as indeed it voted for Barack Obama. It is still an uphill fight for Democrats in the extreme. If they were ever going to beat Terry, a year in which national Democrats organized and spent a ton of money here, the Democratic Presidential candidate won the district, and Terry fell asleep would seem to be the year. They still fell short. Terry will probably see continued stiff competition, but the seat continues to lean his way.

House 3 - Adrian Smith (R)

2004: Rep. Tom Osborne (R) 87%, Donna Anderson (D) 11%
2006: Adrian Smith (R) 55%, Scott Kleeb (D) 45%
2008: Rep. Adrian Smith (R) 77%, Jay Stoddard (D) 23%

This is really not a district that will ever elect a Democrat. That 2006 result is nothing short of miraculous.