State of the Day - Nevada

The Silver State has grown rapidly during the past two decades. With significant numbers of new voters for each election cycle, politics here never stands still. Republicans seemed to have an edge here though the middle part of this decades, but Democrats certainly had their moments. Republicans held their edge even in 2006, winning the open Governor’s Mansion. Along with the rest of the country, Nevada seemed to swing sharply to the Democrats in 2008. Republican Representative Jon Porter went down hard even as Barack Obama swept to a huge victory here.

Since nothing ever stays the same here, Republicans will have their chances to come back soon enough. Senate Majority Harry Reid has never been widely popular and may be trouble in 2010. However, the GOP has some problems. They simply must do better among Hispanic voters, who wiped them out in 2010. They could also benefit from the disappearance of Republican Governor Jim Gibbons, who has become the political equivalent of arsenic. Nevada should have a fun election year in 2010.


President - 5 Electoral Votes

2000: George Bush (R) 50%, Al Gore (D) 46%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 50%, John Kerry (D) 48%
2008: Barack Obama (D) 55%, John McCain (R) 43%

Nevada has become a sort of bellwether, last missing the national winner when it voted for Gerald Ford in 1976. That said, it’s not really typical of the nation in many respects. It has, however, become noticeably more Democratic. It voted three points more Republican than the nation in 2000, but one point more Democratic than the nation in 2004 and two points more Democratic in 2008. Unless Republicans can improve with the 20% of Nevadans who are Hispanic, this trend will only continue. Republicans have long depended on Nevada to get to 270 Electoral Votes, but they may need to find another combination because this state is looking worse every year.

Governor - Jim Gibbons (R)

1998: Kenny Guinn (R) 52%, Jan Jones (D) 42%
2002: Gov. Kenny Guinn (R) 68%, Joe Neal (D) 22%
2006: Jim Gibbons (R) 48%, Dina Titus (D) 44%

Gibbons is in major trouble, to put it mildly. His term has been dominated by an extremely ugly divorce and a corruption inquiry, which have helped sink his approval rating to 25%. I don’t really see any way he can win reelection at this point. Republicans must hope that he goes away before the campaign begins.

The biggest problem for the Democrats appears to be that their leading candidate is Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid, Harry’s son. Reid will have plenty of money, but his presence on the ballot in the same year as his father faces a potentially difficult reelection himself may not be ideal.

Senior Senator - Harry Reid (D)

1992: Sen. Harry Reid (D) 51%, Demar Dahl (R) 40%
1998: Sen. Harry Reid (D) 48%, John Ensign (R) 48%
2004: Sen. Harry Reid (D) 61%, Richard Ziser (R) 35%

Reid continually garners low approval ratings and could be in serious trouble in 2010. Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki seems likely to run and would be a top shelf candidate. (UPDATE: Krolocki was indicted on felony charges last month, which makes the above statement inoperative. Thanks to reader Dennis Myers for correcting my error). At this point, however, the race would seem to be a referendum on Reid. I’d give him the advantage because he is a tough competitor and will have tons of money, both from his post as Majority Leader and from gaming interests. However, his stature also makes him vulnerable if the political climate turns against Barack Obama and the Democrats. In that case, Reid’s shallow connections with Nevada voters may not be enough to save him.

Junior Senator - John Ensign (R)

1994: Sen. Richard Bryan (D) 51%, Hal Furman (R) 41%
2000: John Ensign (R) 55%, Ed Bernstein (D) 40%
2006: Sen. John Ensign (R) 55%, Jack Carter (D) 41%

Ensign may have some problems if Nevada continues to trend Democratic. However, he has a stronger personal appeal than Reid and will be tough to dislodge.

House 1 - Shelley Berkley (D)

2004: Rep. Shelley Berkley (D) 66%, Russ Mickelson (R) 31%
2006: Rep. Shelley Berkley (D) 65%, Kenneth Wegner (R) 31%
2008: Rep. Shelley Berkley (D) 68%, Kenneth Wegner (R) 28%

This Central Las Vegas seat is a long shot for Republicans under the best of circumstances, and they won’t ever touch Berkley. If I could advise her, I’d suggest she pass on another eyebrow lift.

House 2 - Dean Heller (R)

2004: Rep. Jim Gibbons (R) 67%, Angie Cochran (D) 27%
2006: Dean Heller (R) 50%, Jill Derby (D) 45%
2008: Rep. Dean Heller (R) 52%, Jill Derby (D) 41%

This “rest of the state seat” gets most of its vote from Carson City, Ely, Reno, and the Vegas suburbs. It is a mostly Republican seat, though Democrats have tried hard the last two cycles. If they couldn’t come all that close to it with all of the advantages of the last two years, it is hard to see Democrats winning here. Heller may continue to see challenges, but he has an edge.

House 3 - Dina Titus (D)

2004: Rep. Jon Porter (R) 54%, Tom Gallagher (D) 40%
2006: Rep. Jon Porter (R) 48%, Tessa Hafen (D) 47%
2008: Dina Titus (D) 47%, Rep. Jon Porter (R) 42%

This suburban Las Vegas/Henderson seat is a classic swing district, but like the rest of suburbia it has trended rapidly Democratic. I’m not all that impressed with Titus. Under the circumstances, her 2008 win was pretty weak and she really should have won the Governor’s race in 2006. I know it looks like she has an edge on paper, but I think with a better climate for Republicans she goes down after one term.