The Granite State is a tiny state totally atypical of the nation, yet it has an outsized role in electing the President. New Hampshire has been sort of an outpost. It has a strong anti-tax spirit and supported Republicans long after the rest of New England went the other way. Cultural issues seem to have trumped taxes in recent years, and the Democrats gained rapidly during this decade. George W. Bush won this state in 2000, but McCain got trounced in 2008. Democrats elected a very popular Governor in 2004, took both House seats in 2006, and saw Jeanne Shaheen elected to the very same Senate seat she lost for in 2002.
New Hampshire may now lean Democratic, but the state should still see action in 2010. Governor John Lynch remains popular but has to deal with budget problems. Senator Judd Gregg should see a race in 2010, but Republicans may be to able to make a play for the two House seats. The Democrats are in control here, but it is hardly unanimous.
President - 4 Electoral Votes
2000: George Bush (R) 48%, Al Gore (D) 47%
2004: John Kerry (D) 50%, Pres. George Bush (R) 49%
2008: Barack Obama (D) 54%, John McCain (R) 45%
New Hampshire has certainly trended Democratic, but not as much as is usually reported. It only voted a point more Democratic than the nation. Thus, it should continue to be a close state in a close election. It’s just Democratic enough to where it probably won’t be a tipping point state, however. If Obama struggles, don’t be surprised if this state is back in play in 2012.
Governor - John Lynch (D)
2004: John Lynch (D) 51%, Gov. Craig Benson (R) 49%
2006: Gov. John Lynch (D) 74%, Jim Coburn (R) 26%
2008: Gov. John Lynch (D) 70%, Joe Kenney (R) 28%
Lynch remains insanely popular in New Hampshire. A December poll actually showed his approval rating “dropping” to 61%. That said, now is not a good time to be a Governor and Lynch will have tough choices to make. He may become somewhat vulnerable, and if he does John Sununu may be able to pounce. Even if Sununu runs, you’d have to consider Lynch a favorite. Just look at the 2008 election results.
Senior Senator - Judd Gregg (R)
1992: Judd Gregg (R) 48%, John Rauh (D) 45%
1998: Sen. Judd Gregg (R) 68%, George Condodemetraky (D) 28%
2004: Sen. Judd Gregg (R) 66%, Doris Haddock (D) 34%
Gregg hasn’t been seriously challenged for reelection, but that should change in 2010. Representative Paul Hodes looks likely to run for this seat. New Hampshire’s recent trends certainly would seem to argue against Gregg. However, if the political environment moves away from the Democrats, as I think it will, Gregg remains in good shape. He remains popular and Hodes, though well known, cannot match his results. If the political climate remains anti-Republican, Gregg could be in severe trouble.
Junior Senator - Jeanne Shaheen (D)
1996: Sen. Bob Smith (R) 49%, Dick Swett (D) 46%
2002: John Sununu (R) 51%, Jeanne Shaheen (D) 47%
2008: Jeanne Shaheen (D) 52%, Sen. John Sununu (R) 45%
This race was a sort of controlled experiment for how much the political climate changed in six years. Check back in six more.
House 1 - Carol Shea-Porter (D)
2004: Rep. Jeb Bradley (R) 63%, Justin Nadeau (D) 37%
2006: Carol Shea-Porter (D) 51%, Rep. Jeb Bradley (R) 49%
2008: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) 52%, Jeb Bradley (R) 46%
This Eastern New Hampshire seat, which encompasses Derry, Laconia, Manchester, Portsmouth, and Rochester, remains a tossup seat in a neutral environment. This makes it a poor fit for an unabashed liberal like Shea-Porter. I’ll concede she has a small edge, but this race starts up as a tossup again for 2010. Republicans have two candidates thus far, Robert Bestani and State Representative Will Infantine. Republicans could benefit if they didn’t have a September primary, something they could not avoid in 2008.
House 2 - Paul Hodes (D)
2004: Rep. Charles Bass (R) 58%, Paul Hodes (D) 38%
2006: Paul Hodes (D) 53%, Charles Bass (R) 46%
2008: Rep. Paul Hodes (D) 56%, Jennifer Horn (R) 41%
Hodes has expressed interest in a Senate run, but thus far has remain uncommitted. This West New Hampshire seat, which includes Berline, Concord, Keene, and Lebanon, is the more Democratic of the two but is also a tossup. Assuming he stays, Hodes maintains an edge. Jim Lawrence has expressed interest in running for the GOP.
Saturday, January 10, 2009
State of the Day - New Hampshire
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5 comments:
NH-02 is not a tossup seat. John Kerry won it 53%-46% when he was losing nationally and Obama won it 57%-42%. It is clearly a Dem leaning district.
I agree the seat tilts Democratic. I use the term tossup or swing to describe seats within about three points of the national average, as that's about the margin you'd expect a very competitive House race in an open seat. NH-2 is on the high end of that, though, and I may end up classifying it as a lean Dem seat.
Its around D+4 when compared to the national average.
Depends on how you weight and how many elections you use. Let's just say it borders between "Toss Up Dem" and "Leans Dem" but is trending Democratic.
New Hampshire might swing back if they give in to temptation and introduce taxes to balance their budget during this difficult time. The falling of the Old Man of the Mountain a few years ago seems to mirror GOP fortunes here. Where have you gone Styles Bridges?
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