State of the Day - New Jersey

The Garden State is known primarily as a cesspool for dirty politics than for any sort of positive political achievement. In a state dominated by two media markets based in other states, politics remains a local affair reminiscent of an earlier, but not necessarily cleaner time. Conflicts of interest and corruption remain the name of the game here. New Jersey used to be Republican, but as a totally suburban state has trended toward the Democrats along with the rest of suburbia. Republicans always seem to tease here, but it never works out for them.

The GOP will try again and finally seem to have moved beyond the troika of multiple time losers they have run statewide in recent years, Douglas Forrester, Bret Schundler, and Dick Zimmer. They have a real chance in the gubernatorial race. Democratic Governor Jon Corzine was elected in 2005 to clean of the stink, but he hasn’t really succeeded. Nobody that rich is ever out of it, but if the Republicans can’t make a comeback in 2009 I’ll wonder if they ever will.


President - 15 Electoral Votes

2000: Al Gore (D) 56%, George Bush (R) 40%
2004: John Kerry (D) 53%, Pres. George Bush (R) 46%
2008: Barack Obama (D) 57%, John McCain (R) 42%

New Jersey is now an indisputably Democratic state. In a mirror image of 2008, New Jersey might be the Republican equivalent of North Carolina. If Obama is close in New Jersey in 2012, he’s hopeless nationally.

Governor - Jon Corzine (D)

1997: Gov. Christine Whitman (R) 47%, James McGreevey (D) 46%
2001: James McGreevey (D) 56%, Bret Schundler (R) 42%
2005: Jon Corzine (D) 53%, Douglas Forrester (R) 43%

Three years into his term, Corzine has hardly cleaned up Trenton. In fact, things seem to be worse. Tax increases and a bizarre plan to exponentially increase charges on the New Jersey Turnpike haven’t helped either. His approval rating currently sits at a scintillating 25%. If it stays there he’s dead. I suspect he can bring things up, however. He will have essentially unlimited funds and a state that still leans Democratic. It’s also unclear who his opponent will be. U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie seems to be the frontrunner, but Somerset County Mayor Brian Levine, Steve Lonegan, and Rick Merkt are also in the mix. Christie, who battled New Jersey corruption for seven years, seems well positioned to argue he can do what Corzine failed to do. I’d have to rate him a favorite at this point for both the nomination, but I cannot yet rate him a favorite over Corzine.

Prediction: Gov. Corzine (D) 52%, Christie (R) 47%

Senior Senator - Frank Lautenberg (D)

1996: Robert G. Torricelli (D) 53%, Dick Zimmer (R) 43%
2002: Frank Lautenberg (D) 54%, Douglas Forrester (R) 44%
2008: Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) 56%, Dick Zimmer (R) 43%

Polling repeatedly shows people don’t like Lautenberg, but that doesn’t stop them from voting for him.

Junior Senator - Robert Menendez (D)

1994: Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) 50%, Chuck Haytaian (R) 47%
2000: Jon Corzine (D) 50%, Bob Franks (R) 47%
2006: Sen. Robert Menendez (D) 53%, Thomas Kean Jr. (R) 44%

Menendez might have lost in 2006 absent the insanely Democratic year as some ethical troubles got him in hot water. That’s not exactly uncommon in New Jersey, and he should be fine going forward.

House 1 - Robert Andrews (D)

2004: Rep. Robert Andrews (D) 75%, Daniel Hutchison (R) 25%
2006: Rep. Robert Andrews (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. Robert Andrews (D) 72%, Dale Glading (R) 26%

Only in New Jersey can a Congressman run in a Senate primary, lose, and then arrange to come back to his safe House seat after his wife running to replace him miraculously drops out.

House 2 - Frank LoBiondo (R)

2004: Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R) 65%, Timothy Robb (D) 33%
2006: Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R) 62%, Viola Thomas-Hughes (D) 36%
2008: Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R) 59%, David Kurkowski (D) 39%

This Atlantic City based seat is one of the few genuinely Democratic leaning seats still represented by a Republican. That fact alone makes LoBiondo vulnerable, though Democrats really need to step up their game here.

House 3 - John Adler (D)

2004: Rep. Jim Saxton (R) 63%, Herb Conaway (D) 35%
2006: Rep. Jim Saxton (R) 58%, Rich Sexton (D) 41%
2008: John Adler (R) 52%, Chris Myers (D) 48%

This Central Jersey swing seat predictably swung to the Democrats when it came open in 2008. Adler’s performance wasn’t actually all that impressive, and the race should still be competitive in 2010, though I’d give Adler the edge. Justin Murphy, a primary loser in 2008, has already announced his candidacy for the Republicans.

House 4 - Chris Smith (R)

2004: Rep. Chris Smith (R) 67%, Amy Vasquez (D) 32%
2006: Rep. Chris Smith (R) 66%, Carol Gay (D) 33%
2008: Rep. Chris Smith (R) 66%, Joshua Zeitz (D) 33%

Smith somehow avoided a race in this tossup East Trenton/Central Jersey seat. The seat is close enough to keep an eye on, but Smith is so entrenched that his losing is unlikely.

House 5 - Scott Garrett (R)

2004: Rep. Scott Garrett (R) 58%, Anne Wolf (D) 41%
2006: Rep. Scott Garrett (R) 55%, Paul Aronsohn (D) 44%
2008: Rep. Scott Garrett (R) 56%, Dennis Shulman (D) 42%

Garrett has easily survived challenges in this Republican leaning North Jersey seat. He should continue to do so.

House 6 - Frank Pallone (D)

2004: Rep. Frank Pallone (D) 67%, Sylvester Fernandez (R) 31%
2006: Rep. Frank Pallone (D) 69%, Leigh-Ann Bellew (R) 30%
2008: Rep. Frank Pallone (D) 67%, Robert McLeod (R) 32%

Nothing to see here.

House 7 - Leonard Lance (R)

2004: Rep. Michael Ferguson (R) 57%, Steve Brozak (D) 42%
2006: Rep. Michael Ferguson (R) 49%, Linda Stender (D) 48%
2008: Leonard Lance (R) 50%, Linda Stender (D) 42%

Lance’s performance in this marginal North Jersey seat was quite impressive. Even so, he should remain on the top of Democratic targets lists, especially if Democrats can find somebody better than “Big Spender” Stender, who has blown two golden opportunities to win. I still give Lance a slight edge.

House 8 - Bill Pascrell (D)

2004: Rep. Bill Pascrell (D) 69%, George Ajjan (R) 29%
2006: Rep. Bill Pascrell (D) 71%, Jose Sandoval (R) 28%
2008: Rep. Bill Pascrell (D) 71%, Rollie Staten (R) 28%

Fuhgettabout it.

House 9 - Steven Rothman (D)

2004: Rep. Steven Rothman (D) 68%, Edward Trawinski (R) 32%
2006: Rep. Steven Rothman (D) 71%, Vincent Micco (R) 28%
2008: Rep. Steven Rothman (D) 69%, Vincent Micco (R) 31%

Ditto.

House 10 - Donald Payne (D)

2004: Rep. Donald Payne (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. Donald Payne (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. Donald Payne (D) unopposed

This district is so Democratic even William Jefferson could not lose it.

House 11 - Rodney Frelinghuysen (R)

2004: Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) 68%, James Buell (D) 31%
2006: Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) 62%, Tom Wyka (D) 37%
2008: Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) 62%, Tom Wyka (D) 37%

This North Jersey seat leans Republican. It’s hard to see a scenario where Frelinghuysen, who incidentally may be the biggest legacy in the House with a family of politicians dating to the Revolution, is in any trouble.

House 12 - Rush Holt (D)

2004: Rep. Rush Holt (D) 59%, Bill Spadea (R) 40%
2006: Rep. Rush Holt (D) 66%, Joseph Sinagra (R) 34%
2008: Rep. Rush Holt (D) 63%, Alan Bateman (R) 35%

Holt was first elected beating an idiotic Republican in a marginal seat and had a close call in 2000 . This Trenton/Central Jersey seat is mostly Democratic now, however, and Holt is safe.

House 13 - Albio Sires (D)

2004: Rep. Robert Menendez (D) 73%, Richard Piatkowski (R) 22%
2006 special: Albio Sires (D) unopposed
2006: Albio Sires (D) 78%, John Guarini (R) 19%
2008: Rep. Albio Sires (D) 75%, Joseph Turula (R) 22%

Republicans should only hold their breath here if they want to suffocate themselves.