State of the Day - New Mexico

The Land of Enchantment has totally unique demographics that have generally made this a difficult state to analyze. Even so, it has generally tended to fall in the middle of the road politically. That may be changing, thanks in large part to the Republican Party’s seemingly conscious efforts to anger Hispanics. Al Gore won this state by 365 votes in 2000, and the President eeked out a narrow win here in 2004. Barack Obama won New Mexico by a landslide in 2008 as Democrats easily won an open Senate and all three open House seats, two of which had previously been held by the GOP.

Going forward, Republicans have no choice but to do better among Hispanics. 2010 gives them a first chance at a comeback. The Governor’s Mansion will come open and Republicans should be able to put in a strong push to reclaim the Second District House seat, if not the First District as well. If Republicans cannot make any gains in 2010, we will need to start thinking of New Mexico as a Democratic state.


President - 5 Electoral Votes

2000: Al Gore (D) 48%, George Bush (R) 48%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 50%, John Kerry (D) 49%
2008: Barack Obama (D) 57%, John McCain (R) 42%

In 2004, the President won 44% of Hispanic voters, which makes up about 42% of the population here. Nationally, John McCain won about 25% of Hispanics. If you use that number in New Mexico, we’d expect McCain to lose about eight points from the President’s 2004 total on Hispanic votes alone. Sure enough, McCain ran eight points behind the President and lost the state easily. The aim moving forward should be obvious for Republicans.

Governor - Bill Richardson (D)

1998: Gov. Gary Johnson (R) 55%, Martin Chavez (D) 45%
2002: Bill Richardson (D) 55%, John Sanchez (R) 39%
2006: Gov. Bill Richardson (D) 69%, John Dendahl (R) 31%

Richardson withdrew his nomination for Commerce Secretary, but remains term limited here in 2010. It also is unknown whether or how the ongoing investigation into corruption in his administration will affect the race to replace him. At the moment, Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish remains the favorite to win the Democratic nomination, though she suffers from not being able to move into the Governor’s Mansion this month as originally planned. Val Kilmer has also expressed interest in running.

Republicans may be headed toward another primary showdown between conservative Steve Pearce and moderate Heather Wilson. They need to figure that one out before no blood is drawn. Wilson would be a better statewide candidate than Pearce. As of now, I’d make the Democrats slight favorites to hold on here based on recent general voting trends, but it is not much of an advantage.

Senior Senator - Jeff Bingaman (D)

1994: Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D) 54%, Colin McMillan (R) 46%
2000: Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D) 62%, Bill Redmond (R) 38%
2006: Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D) 71%, Allen McCulloch (R) 29%

Bingaman will only be leaving the Senate on his own terms.

Junior Senator - Tom Udall (D)

1996: Sen. Pete Domenici (R) 65%, Art Trujillo (D) 30%
2002: Sen. Pete Domenici (R) 65%, Gloria Tristan (D) 30%
2008: Tom Udall (D) 61%, Steve Pearce (R) 39%

Udall probably would have won in any circumstances, but Republicans certainly did not benefit by nominating staunch conservative Steve Pearce over moderate Heather Wilson in a contentious primary. New Mexico’s trends over the next years will shape Udall’s reelection bid, but I have to think the seat at the minimum leans his way under any circumstances.

House 1 - Martin Heinrich (D)

2004: Rep. Heather Wilson (R) 54%, Richard Romero (D) 46%
2006: Rep. Heather Wilson (R) 50%, Patricia Madrid (D) 50%
2008: Martin Heinrich (D) 56%, Darren White (R) 44%

Darren White was considered by far the best candidate Republicans could come up with in this Albuquerque swing district. Even so, he got trounced by Democrat Martin Heinrich. Heinrich benefited from a big Democratic year, but this was still an impressive win and this seat is trending Democratic. The race definitely leans toward Heinrich in 2010.

House 2 - Harry Teague (D)

2004: Rep. Steve Pearce (R) 60%, Gary King (D) 40%
2006: Rep. Steve Pearce (R) 59%, Albert Kissling (D) 40%
2008: Harry Teague (D) 56%, Edward Tinsley (R) 44%

This Southern New Mexico seat leans Republican and includes such locales as Alamogordo, Hobbs, Las Cruces, and Roswell. It also is 47% Hispanic, a fact which just killed the Republicans in 2008. Tinsley was not exactly a top shelf candidate either. The seat is often described as a big time Republican seat, which is somewhat of an overstatement. Even so, Teague’s double digit win was unexpected. I would expect Republicans to go after this seat in 2010 and I rate it as a tossup as of now. If I had to guess, I’d say that Democratic gains among Hispanics will deliver a narrow victory to Teague.

House 3 - Ben Lujan (D)

2004: Rep. Tom Udall (D) 69%, Gregory Tucker (R) 31%
2006: Rep. Tom Udall (D) 75%, Ronald Dolin (R) 25%
2008: Ben Lujan (D) 57%, Daniel East (R) 31%

Lujan easily won this Democratic leaning Northern New Mexico seat, which includes population centers in Clovis, Farmington, and Santa Fe. A third party candidate kept Lujan from racking up a huge number, so I won’t rate him totally safe. However, it would take an unlikely series of events to flip this seat.