State of the Day - New York

The Empire State has become a total wasteland for the Republican Party. This used to be a swing state, with a Republican Upstate balancing out the Democratic city. It tilted heavily Democratic by the 1980’s thanks to Democratic strength in the suburbs, but Republicans could still elect statewide candidates as late as 2002. Now they seemingly have nothing. Senators Charles Schumer and Hillary Rodham Clinton helped lead a Democratic surge upstate, which has led to some frightening beatings. Republicans have even lost their long-term stronghold in the State Senate. This will allow Democrats to dominate redistricting, and with only three House seats left and the state expected to lose two more after the next Census, it’ is possible the Congressional delegation will have no Republicans by 2013.

Short term prospects for the GOP don’t look much better, either. Schumer and Governor David Paterson look safe for 2010. Republicans are talking about competing in a 2010 special election to replace Clinton, but that seems unlikely. Given the size and importance of the state and the complete domination, New York may be the heart of the Democratic Party.


President - 31 Electoral Votes

2000: Al Gore (D) 60%, George Bush (R) 35%
2004: John Kerry (D) 58%, Pres. George Bush (R) 40%
2008: Barack Obama (D) 63%, John McCain (R) 36%

The only surprise here in 2008 was that Obama did not win by a greater margin. I cannot think of any circumstances where New York is even remotely interesting in 2012.

Governor - David Paterson (D)

1998: Gov. George Pataki (R) 54%, Peter Vallone (D) 33%
2002: Gov. George Pataki (R) 49%, Carl McCall (D) 34%
2006: Eliot Spitzer (D) 70%, John Faso (R) 29%

Realistically, Republicans have very little chance to beat a Democratic with a 50% approval rating, as Paterson now has. I won’t write off Rudy Giuliani completely if he runs, and he at least has a pulse unlike recent statewide Republican candidates. He would at least put pressure on Paterson to be productive the next two years and not mess up his Senate appointment. In the end, I think he passes on the race. Giuliani has never seemed much interested in Upstate issues, and I have a hard time picturing him spending any time in Albany. If he does run, he’ll be well funded and may do better than most Republicans in New York City, but his appeal Upstate is unknown. Paterson has done well enough to forestall a serious primary challenge. Considering all factors, I’d say Paterson is a likely victor in 2010.

Senior Senator - Charles Schumer (D)

1992: Sen. Al D’Amato (R) 45%, Robert Abrams (D) 44%
1998: Charles Schumer (D) 55%, Sen. Al D’Amato (R) 44%
2004: Sen. Charles Schumer (D) 71%, Howard Mills (R) 24%

Schumer is unbelievably safe. I guess he could be vulnerable in he pulled a Spitzer, but he is in front of a camera so often I can’t see how he would find the time to employ a prostitute. Representative Peter King has expressed interest in running for this seat, but I don’t see why he’d waste his time doing so when he could run in the special election for the other seat the same year. If King did run for some reason, his upside would top out at doing somewhat better than the hapless Howard Mills did in 2004.

Junior Senator - Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)

1994: Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan (D) 55%, Bernadette Castro (R) 42%
2000: Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) 55%, Rick Lazio (R) 43%
2006: Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) 67%, John Spencer (R) 31%

Clinton remains in the Senate for now, but she seems assured of winning confirmation as Secretary of State. I don’t like to comment on special elections before the need for them becomes official, but let’s just say that whether in 2010 or 2012, I don’t really see Republicans having much of a chance. As I’ve written earlier, I think Caroline Kennedy would win by a reduced margin compared to recent Democrats because she’d engender some hostility Upstate. Personally, I don’t see any qualifications for or reasons why she should get the job, and she has certainly done nothing to raise her reputation since her name was floated. I find it self-evident that she wouldn’t be a serious candidate if her last name wasn’t Kennedy (and notice, she’s quite adding Schlossberg on the end).

House 1 - Tim Bishop (D)

2004: Rep. Tim Bishop (D) 56%, William Manger (R) 44%
2006: Rep. Tim Bishop (D) 62%, Italo Zanzi (R) 38%
2008: Rep. Tim Bishop (D) 58%, Lee Zeldin (R) 42%

This swing Long Island district certainly continues to lean Bishop’s way, but his performances aren’t impressive enough for me to go beyond that.

House 2 - Steve Israel (D)

2004: Rep. Steve Israel (D) 67%, Richard Hoffmann (R) 33%
2006: Rep. Steve Israel (D) 70%, John Bugler (R) 30%
2008: Rep. Steve Israel (D) 67%, Frank Stalzer (R) 33%

Republicans might have a vague shot at this Long Island seat if it were open in the right circumstances, but Israel is safe.

House 3 - Peter King (R)

2004: Rep. Peter King (R) 63%, Blair Mathies (D) 37%
2006: Rep. Peter King (R) 56%, David Mejias (D) 44%
2008: Rep. Peter King (R) 64%, Graham Long (D) 36%

King has an advantage in the Levittown based seat as long as he runs. However, the underlying seat is pretty even and this is a major Democratic pickup opportunity should King vacate it to run for the Senate.

House 4 - Carolyn McCarthy (D)

2004: Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D) 63%, James Garner (R) 37%
2006: Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D) 65%, Martin Blessinger (R) 35%
2008: Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D) 64%, Jack Martins (D) 36%

McCarthy has totally entrenched herself in this mostly Democratic based Hempstead based Hempstead. She’s rumored to be interested in a Senate appointment, but her father wasn’t President.

House 5 - Gary Ackerman (D)

2004: Rep. Gary Ackerman (D) 71%, Stephen Graves (R) 28%
2006: Rep. Gary Ackerman (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. Gary Ackerman (D) 71%, Elizabeth Berney (R) 27%

Ackerman won some notoriety for comparing Caroline Kennedy’s qualifications for Senate to Jennifer Lopez’s. This seat is safely Democratic.

House 6 - Gregory Meeks (D)

2004: Rep. Gregory Meeks (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. Gregory Meeks (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. Gregory Meeks (D) unopposed

You might get the sense this is a safely Democratic seat.

House 7 - Joseph Crowley (D)

2004: Rep. Joseph Crowley (D) 81%, Joseph Cinquemain (R) 19%
2006: Rep. Joseph Crowley (D) 84%, Kevin Brawley (R) 16%
2008: Rep. Joseph Crowley (D) 85%, William Britt (R) 15%

Crowley is about as New Yawk as you can get, coming across with the appearance and demeanor of a man you’d expect to be downing a cold one at Yankee Stadium. His district is a Republican wasteland.

House 8 - Jerrold Nadler (D)

2004: Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D) 81%, Peter Hort (R) 19%
2006: Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D) 85%, Eleanor Friedman (R) 14%
2008: Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D) 80%, Grace Lin (R) 20%

Nadler is interested in the Senate appointment. Some consider him too liberal for statewide office, but I don’t really think that is possible in today’s New York. It certainly is not possible in this district.

House 9 - Anthony Weiner (D)

2004: Rep. Anthony Weiner (D) 71%, Gerard Cronin (R) 29%
2006: Rep. Anthony Weiner (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. Anthony Weiner (D) unopposed

Weiner’s run for New York City Mayor may or may not have been derailed by Mike Bloomberg’s move to shove aside term limits. This is a Republican stronghold compared to these other districts, but Democrats will have no problems holding onto this seat in any event.

House 10 - Edolphus Towns (D)

2004: Rep. Edolphus Towns (D) 91%, Harvey Clarke (R) 7%
2006: Rep. Edolphus Towns (D) 92%, Jonathan Anderson (R) 6%
2008: Rep. Edolphus Towns (D) 94%, Salvatore Grupico (R) 6%

I’m surprised the Republican can draw 6% here. Towns has faced primary challenges, but they are almost never successful in the boss politics of New York.

House 11 - Yvette Clark (D)

2004: Rep. Major Owens (D) unopposed
2006: Yvette Clark (D) 90%, Stephen Finger (R) 8%
2008: Rep. Yvette Clark (D) 93%, Hugh Carr (R) 6%

Don’t you wonder about the psychology of Republicans who run in a district like this?

House 12 - Nydia Velazquez (D)

2004: Rep. Nydia Velazquez (D) 86%, Paul Rodriguez (R) 14%
2006: Rep. Nydia Velazquez (D) 90%, Allan Romaguera (R) 10%
2008: Rep. Nydia Velazquez (D) 90%, Allan Romaguera (R) 10%

Hosni Mubarak has closer elections.

House 13 - Michael McMahon (D)

2004: Rep. Vito Fossella (R) 59%, Frank Barbaro (D) 41%
2006: Rep. Vito Fossella (R) 57%, Stephen Harrison (D) 43%
2008: Michael McMahon (D) 61%, Robert Straniere (R) 33%

Republicans would like to forget their 2008 series of disasters here, but the new Democratic Congressman makes that very difficult. McMahon is well positioned to keep this Staten Island/Brooklyn seat, which while a Republican mecca in New York City, is a swing district by national standards. McMahon’s moderate profile, along with the absurd amount of money necessary to compete here, keeps this seat leaning Democratic.

House 14 - Carolyn Maloney (D)

2004: Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D) 81%, Anton Srdanovich (R) 19%
2006: Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D) 84%, Danniel Maio (R) 16%
2008: Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D) 80%, Robert Heim (R) 19%

Maloney also, you know, wants a, you know, Senate appointment.

House 15 - Charles Rangel (D)

2004: Rep. Charles Rangel (D) 91%, Kenneth Jefferson (R) 7%
2006: Rep. Charles Rangel (D) 94%, Edward Daniels (R) 6%
2008: Rep. Charles Rangel (D) 89%, Edward Daniels (R) 8%

The ethically challenged Rangel did see his performance dip after revelations about his failure to report rental income and his illegal owning of multiple rent controlled apartments. While a Republican will never win in the most Democratic district in the country, it is worth noting that Rangel won his seat 38 years ago in a primary over an ethically tarred incumbent.

House 16 - Jose Serrano (D)

2004: Rep. Jose Serrano (D) 95%, Ali Mohamed (R) 5%
2006: Rep. Jose Serrano (D) 95%, Ali Mohamed (R) 5%
2008: Rep. Jose Serrano (D) 96%, Ali Mohamed (R) 3%

Serrano really surged here in 2008.

House 17 - Eliot Engel (D)

2004: Rep. Eliot Engel (D) 76%, Matt Brennan (R) 22%
2006: Rep. Eliot Engel (D) 76%, Jim Faulkner (R) 24%
2008: Rep. Eliot Engel (D) 80%, Robert Goodman (R) 20%

Engel is most famous for reserving a prime seat for the State of the Union Address hours early.

House 18 - Nita Lowey (D)

2004: Rep. Nita Lowey (D) 70%, Richard Hoffman (R) 30%
2006: Rep. Nita Lowey (D) 71%, Richard Hoffman (R) 29%
2008: Rep. Nita Lowey (D) 68%, Jim Russell (R) 32%

Next!

House 19 - John Hall (D)

2004: Rep. Sue Kelly (R) 67%, Michael Jaliman (D) 33%
2006: John Hall (D) 51%, Rep. Sue Kelly (R) 49%
2008: Rep. John Hall (D) 59%, Kieran Michael Lalor (R) 41%

This upscale suburban district is actually a legitimate swing district. Hall impressed in 2008, and while he may continue to see races he established himself as a definite favorite.

House 20 - Kirsten Gillibrand (D)

2004: Rep. John Sweeney (R) 66%, Doris Kelly (D) 34%
2006: Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 53%, Rep. John Sweeney (R) 47%
2008: Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 62%, Sandy Treadwell (R) 38%

Another loser in the Caroline Kennedy coming out party, Gillibrand will have to content herself for establishing an edge in this marginal Eastern Upstate district.

House 21 - Paul Tonko (D)

2004: Rep. Michael McNulty (D) 71%, Warren Redlich (R) 27%
2006: Rep. Michael McNulty (D) 72%, Warren Redlich (R) 20%
2008: Paul Tonko (D) 62%, James Buhrmaster (R) 35%

This Albany seat isn’t totally off limits to Republicans on paper, but in practice it is for the time being.

House 22 - Maurice Hinchey (D)

2004: Rep. Maurice Hinchey (D) 67%, William Brenner (R) 33%
2006: Rep. Maurice Hinchey (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. Maurice Hinchey (D) 66%, George Phillips (R) 34%

Hinchey has made himself safe in this Democratic leaning Binghamton/Southern Upstate seat.

House 23 - John McHugh (R)

2004: Rep. John McHugh (R) 71%, Robert Johnson (D) 29%
2006: Rep. John McHugh (R) 63%, Robert Johnson (D) 37%
2008: Rep. John McHugh (R) 65%, Robert Oot (D) 35%

This Plattsburgh/Northern Upstate seat is too marginal to be completely safe, but McHugh is unlikely to see a serious challenge after easily surviving the past two cycles.

House 24 - Michael Arcuri (D)

2004: Rep. Sherwood Boehlert (R) 57%, Jeffrey Miller (D) 34%
2006: Michael Arcuri (D) 54%, Ray Meier (R) 45%
2008: Rep. Michael Arcuri (D) 52%, Richard Hanna (R) 48%

Arcuri’s 2008 performance in this Utica based swing seat was quite unimpressive, given his incumbency and the big Democratic year. I still rate Arcuri as a favorite, though he is likely to see a strong challenge and I would call this a tossup as of now.

House 25 - Dan Maffei (D)

2004: Rep. James Walsh (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. James Walsh (R) 51%, Dan Maffei (D) 49%
2008: Dan Maffei (D) 55%, Dale Sweetland (R) 42%

This Syracuse to Rochester seat could go either way, but it has a serious lean toward Maffei in 2010.

House 26 - Christopher Lee (R)

2004: Rep. Tom Reynolds (R) 56%, Jack Davis (D) 44%
2006: Rep. Tom Reynolds (R) 52%, Jack Davis (D) 48%
2008: Christopher Lee (R) 55%, Alice Kryzan (D) 41%

Democrats blew a huge chance to pick up this tossup Buffalo/Rochester seat when they nominated the liberal, grassroots Kryzan in the primary. They may try again but Lee is a definite favorite in what will probably be a better Republican year in 2010.

House 27 - Brian Higgins (D)

2004: Brian Higgins (D) 51%, Nancy Naples (R) 49%
2006: Rep. Brian Higgins (D) 79%, Michael McHale (R) 21%
2008: Rep. Brian Higgins (D) 74%, Daniel Humiston (R) 23%

Another victim of Queen Caroline, Higgins doesn’t have to worry about this mostly Democratic Buffalo/Jamestown seat.

House 28 - Louise Slaughter (D)

2004: Rep. Louise Slaughter (D) 73%, Michael Laba (R) 25%
2006: Rep. Louise Slaughter (D) 73%, John Donnelly (R) 27%
2008: Rep. Louise Slaughter (D) 78%, David Crimmen (R) 22%

This district is Democratic enough where it seems like it should be in New York City.

House 29 - Eric Massa (D)

2004: Randy Kuhl (R) 51%, Samara Barend (D) 41%
2006: Rep. Randy Kuhl (R) 51%, Eric Massa (D) 49%
2008: Eric Massa (D) 51%, Rep. Randy Kuhl (R) 49%

This Rochester/Southern Tier seat is the only one in New York that genuinely leans Republican. Massa benefited from the Democratic wave, but Kuhl was not exactly a powerhouse either. If Republicans are smart they will target this seat in 2010. It would clearly be a tossup but I’d rate the Republicans as slight favorites in a neutral year.