State of the Day - North Carolina

The Tar Heel State may be at the crossroads of its political development. For a generation it has straddled the line between the Deep and Peripheral South. It has generally been socially conservative and favored Republicans, at least on the national level. Democrats have had a vibrant and growing base among blacks, academics in the Research Triangle, and urban professionals in fast growing Charlotte. This enabled North Carolina Democrats to generally have the upper hand in state politics, even as the Republicans dominated in Presidential races. This changed in 2008. The President, with a surge in support from blacks, younger voters, and economically concerned voters edged out a very narrow win. Democrats also picked up a Senate seat, a House seat, and kept the Governor’s Mansion.

2010 will go a long way toward showing the future of politics in North Carolina. Democrats have reason to believe that they can challenge Republican Senator Richard Burr. For their part, Republicans would like to make some inroads into the Democratic controlled House delegation. 2008 might have been a blip created by a popular Democratic candidate in an extraordinary situation. Or, it might have portended a bluer future for North Carolina. Only future elections will tell.


President - 15 Electoral Votes

2000: George Bush (R) 56%, Al Gore (D) 43%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 56%, John Kerry (D) 44%
2008: Barack Obama (D) 50%, John McCain (R) 49%

Based on previous years results, with a seven point national win we would have expected the Democrat to fall about three points short in North Carolina. Several factors enabled the President to pick up an impressive win here. First, he got a higher black turnout that went for him even more overwhelmingly than usual. Secondly, he benefited from huge margins among younger voters in the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill area. Also, he benefited disproportionately here from the financial crisis. Charlotte has become a major banking center so as the financial services industry failed, North Carolina felt it even more than most places. The Democratic turnout effort could not have hurt, either. All in all, we should expect the President to work North Carolina hard over the next four years to build a more enduring Democratic base, because continued success here is hardly assured.

Governor - Beverly Perdue (D)

2000: Michael Easley (D) 52%, Richard Vinroot (R) 46%
2004: Gov. Michael Easley (D) 56%, Patrick Ballantine (R) 43%
2008: Beverly Perdue (D) 50%, Pat McCrory (R) 47%

Perdue was behind in some polls and unlike her predecessors probably owes her job to a Democratic President. Budget shortages make this a difficult period to be Governor. This could be an interesting setup for a 2012 challenge, especially if the President has lost ground here. North Carolina hasn’t voted for a Republican Governor since 1988.

Senior Senator - Richard Burr (R)

1992: Lauch Faircloth (R) 50%, Terry Sanford (D) 46%
1998: John Edwards (D) 51%, Sen. Lauch Faircloth (R) 47%
2004: Richard Burr (R) 52%, Erskine Bowles (D) 47%

Burr would seem to be in good position as a generic conservative in a conservative leaning state. Things are not that simple, however. Democrats have made gains here and Burr’s former colleague, Elizabeth Dole, lost her seat in 2008. Burr has the advantages of not having to worry about an Obama wave and turnout operations. The political climate for Republicans in 2010 could not be worse than it was the last two cycles. However, he might have a strong opponent. Representative Heath Shuler, a conservative Democrat with good name recognition, would be well positioned to give Burr a good run. Burr leads in polls as of now, but tops out at around 40%. Stay tuned.

Junior Senator - Kay Hagan (D)

1996: Sen. Jesse Helms (R) 53%, Harvey B. Gantt (R) 46%
2002: Elizabeth Dole (R) 54%, Erskine Bowles (D) 45%
2008: Kay Hagan (D) 53%, Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) 44%

Hagan turned out to be a better candidate than expected, but the real story here was that Elizabeth Dole spent several months aiming a howitzer at her own toes. I’m sure Republicans can do better when Hagan comes up again.

House 1 - G.K. Butterfield (D)

2004: Rep. G.K. Butterfield (D) 64%, Greg Dority (R) 36%
2006: Rep. G.K. Butterfield (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. G.K. Butterfield (D) 70%, Dean Stephens (R) 30%

This Northeast North Carolina seat is one of the few black majority districts that Republicans could win if everything went right. That will not happens as long as Butterfield, the world’s whitest black man, hangs around.

House 2 - Bob Etheridge (D)

2004: Rep. Bob Etheridge (D) 62%, Billy Creech (R) 38%
2006: Rep. Bob Etheridge (D) 67%, Dan Mansell (R) 33%
2008: Rep. Bob Etheridge (D) 67%, Dan Mansell (R) 31%

Etheridge has entrenched himself in what should be this swing Raleigh/Central North Carolina seat. It would take a major Republican wave to imperil him.

House 3 - Walter Jones (R)

2004: Rep. Walter Jones (R) 71%, Roger Eaton (D) 29%
2006: Rep. Walter Jones (R) 69%, Craig Weber (D) 31%
2008: Rep. Walter Jones (R) 66%, Craig Weber (D) 34%

Democrats will never win this seat. Jones had previously faced conservative opposition due to his opposition to the Iraq War, but he should be safe from that at this point.

House 4 - David Price (D)

2004: Rep. David Price (D) 64%, Todd Batchelor (R) 36%
2006: Rep. David Price (D) 65%, Steve Acuff (R) 35%
2008: Rep. David Price (D) 63%, B.J. Lawson (R) 37%

Price is safe in this Democratic leaning Raleigh/Durham seat.

House 5 - Virginia Foxx (R)

2004: Virginia Foxx (R) 59%, Jim Harrell (D) 41%
2006: Rep. Virginia Foxx (R) 57%, Roger Sharpe (D) 43%
2008: Rep. Virginia Foxx (R) 58%, Roy Carter (D) 42%

Foxx isn’t going to set any records for impressive victories, but this district is simply too overwhelmingly Republican for Democrats to win.

House 6 - Howard Coble (R)

2004: Rep. Howard Coble (R) 73%, William Jordan (D) 27%
2006: Rep. Howard Coble (R) 71%, Rory Blake (D) 29%
2008: Rep. Howard Coble (R) 67%, Teresa Sue Bratton (D) 33%

Democratic redistricting in North Carolina has made the Republican districts REALLY Republican. Coble is safe in perpetuity.

House 7 - Mike McIntyre (D)

2004: Rep. Mike McIntyre (D) 73%, Ken Plonk (R) 27%
2006: Rep. Mike McIntyre (D) 73%, Shirley Davis (R) 27%
2008: Rep. Mike McIntyre (D) 69%, Will Breazeale (R) 31%

This Fayetteville to Wilmington Southern North Carolina seat should be a tossup, but McIntyre and his brand of conservative Democratic politics work well here. Like Etheridge, it would take a 1994 situation to even think of knocking him off.

House 8 - Larry Kissell (D)

2004: Rep. Robin Hayes (R) 56%, Beth Troutman (D) 44%
2006: Rep. Robin Hayes (R) 50%, Larry Kissell (D) 50%
2008: Larry Kissell (D) 55%, Rep. Robin Hayes (R) 45%

Hayes had been under siege for years, and he finally lost this middle of the road Charlotte to Fayetteville seat. Kissell should be one of the most target Democratic incumbents. I’d still give him the edge. In the long run, I think he can turn out similar to Etheridge and McIntyre.

House 9 - Sue Myrick (R)

2004: Rep. Sue Myrick (R) 70%, Jack Flynn (D) 30%
2006: Rep. Sue Myrick (R) 67%, Bill Glass (D) 30%
2008: Rep. Sue Myrick (R) 62%, Harry Taylor (D) 36%

This is a safe Republican seat. Myrick wins an award for worst floor speech of the 110th Congress for her attempt to honor her constituent, and Republican, Ric Flair’s retirement from professional wrestling on the floor. While honoring Flair, probably the greatest professional wrestler of all time, was certainly appropriate, Myrick fell totally flat when tried to deliver Flair’s trademark, “WOOOOOOOOOO!!!!”

House 10 - Patrick McHenry (R)

2004: Patrick McHenry (R) 64%, Anne Fischer (D) 36%
2006: Rep. Patrick McHenry (R) 62%, Richard Carsner (D) 38%
2008: Rep. Patrick McHenry (R) 58%, Daniel Johnson (D) 42%

While some Democrats were excited about the possibility of knocking off McHenry, I remain unclear why the party ever thought they could win this heavily Republican seat.

House 11 - Heath Shuler (D)

2004: Rep. Charles Taylor (R) 55%, Patsy Keever (D) 45%
2006: Heath Shuler (D) 54%, Rep. Charles Taylor (R) 46%
2008: Rep. Heath Shuler (D) 62%, Carl Mumpower (R) 36%

This Asheville based seat is actually mostly Republican. Shuler has a very conservative record, good local popularity as a former football star, and avoided stiff competition in 2008. I would expect a much stiffer race in 2010, as Shuler has yet to run without a big Democratic wave. I would, however, rate Shuler as a favorite.

House 12 - Melvin Watt (D)

2004: Rep. Melvin Watt (D) 67%, Ada Fisher (R) 33%
2006: Rep. Melvin Watt (D) 67%, Ada Fisher (R) 33%
2008: Rep. Melvin Watt (D) 72%, Ty Cobb (R) 28%

This district is never interesting in general elections, but it is amusing to see Watt defeat a man named Ty Cobb. The original Ty Cobb, a baseball Hall of Famer, was a noted racist.

House 13 - Brad Miller (D)

2004: Rep. Brad Miller (D) 59%, Virginia Johnson (R) 41%
2006: Rep. Brad Miller (D) 64%, Vernon Robinson (R) 36%
2008: Rep. Brad Miller (D) 66%, Hugh Webster (R) 34%

On paper, this seat in the northern part of the state running from Greensboro to Raleigh should be competitive. In practice, Miller has iced it into the Democratic column. It would take a series of disasters to put Miller in danger.