State of the Day - North Dakota

To a casual observer, the Peace Garden State has long appeared to present a marked dichotomy. In reality, North Dakota is a generally conservative state with a historical hint of radicalism. However, politics is this small state has always had more to do with personal connections than with simple partisanship. This explains why the state has generally voted Republican for the White House, but how Democrats can dominate the state’s Congressional delegation.

Nothing in North Dakota looks likely to change anytime soon. With no gubernatorial race and entrenched Congressional incumbents, this state should be as quiet as any in 2010.


President - 3 Electoral Votes

2000: George Bush (R) 61%, Al Gore (D) 33%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 63%, John Kerry (D) 35%
2008: John McCain (R) 53%, Barack Obama (D) 45%

As in most of the Midwest and Great Plains, the President did better here than one might have expected given his national margin. While that made a huge difference in Indiana, it did not get him all that close here. Personally, I think John McCain’s abhorrence of current agricultural policy was a huge part of the Republican problem in North Dakota. I would be surprised if the President did any better here in 2012.

Governor - John Hoeven (R)

2000: John Hoeven (R) 55%, Heidi Heitkamp (D) 45%
2004: Gov. John Hoeven (R) 71%, Joseph Satrom (D) 27%
2008: Gov. John Hoeven (R) 74%, Tim Mathern (D) 24%

Hoeven is incredibly popular, as the election results show. There is no reason to think he cannot remain in the Governor’s Mansion as long as he would like.

Senior Senator - Kent Conrad (D)

1994: Sen. Kent Conrad (D) 58%, Ben Clayburgh (R) 42%
2000: Sen. Kent Conrad (D) 62%, Duane Sand (R) 38%
2006: Sen. Kent Conrad (D) 69%, Dwight Grotberg (R) 30%

Conrad always has some risk of losing if an anti-Democratic wave took hold in this Republican state. He is well liked and well positioned, so he maintains a serious edge in all other circumstances.

Junior Senator - Byron Dorgan (D)

1992: Byron Dorgan (D) 59%, Steve Sydness (R) 39%
1998: Sen. Byron Dorgan (D) 63%, Donna Nalewaja (R) 35%
2004: Sen. Byron Dorgan (D) 68%, Mike Liffrig (R) 32%

The Conrad comment applies here as well, except add in A) a tacky comment about Dorgan’s horrendous “hair”, and B) mention that Governor John Hoeven would have a legitimate shot at beating Dorgan should he run.

House At-Large - Earl Pomeroy (D)

2004: Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) 60%, Duane Sand (R) 40%
2006: Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) 66%, Matt Mechtel (R) 34%
2008: Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) 62%, Duane Sand (R) 38%

Pomeroy has survived serious challengers and bad political climates, but never both in the same year. If he gets a decent challenge, I think he could be in major trouble. That if is so big as to be unlikely, however.