State of the Day - Ohio

The Buckeye State currently sits at the fulcrum of national politics. Big and closely divided, neither party can truly control national politics without Ohio. Sure enough, Ohio has trended to the Democrats just as the nation has over the past four years. George W. Bush carried Ohio in 2000 and 2004, and the Republicans controlled both Senate seats, the House delegation, and the Governor’s Mansion. Democrats won big victories for Senate and Governor in 2006, and the President carried the state while Democrats picked up three House seats to add to the two they won in 2006.

Republicans will look for a comeback here in 2010. Unfortunately for them, they will have to spend most of their energy defending the Senate seat being vacated by moderate George Voinovich. Democrats would seem to have an easier time defending their House gains and the Governor’s Mansion. If there is a national mood one way or the other, it will show up in Ohio.


President - 20 Electoral Votes

2000: George Bush (R) 50%, Al Gore (D) 46%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 51%, John Kerry (D) 49%
2008: Barack Obama (D) 51%, John McCain (R) 47%

After voting right at the national average in 2004, Ohio returned to being about a point more Republican than the nation in 2008. This means two things. First, barring a razor close election Ohio will vote for the winner. Two, Republicans simply cannot win the White House without Ohio’s 20 Electoral Votes. Indeed, none ever has. If the President can maintain enough popularity to maintain an edge in Ohio, he will win reelection. You know he knows this, and thus I would expect him to spend a good amount of time here in the next four years.

Governor - Ted Strickland (D)

1998: Bob Taft (R) 50%, Lee Fisher (D) 45%
2002: Gov. Bob Taft (R) 58%, Timothy Hagan (R) 38%
2006: Ted Strickland (D) 61%, Kenneth Blackwell (R) 37%

Often cited as being safe, Strickland could see a strong challenge. His approval ratings generally only hit the low 40’s, but his disapproval ratings are low as well. Recent polling shows him leading different Republicans with mid-40’s support. He won’t have the huge wind at his back this time created by national and state GOP stink. On the other hand, Republicans will probably concentrate more on keeping the Senate seat. Rate Strickland as a favorite, but not an airtight choice.

Senior Senator - George Voinovich (R)

1992: Sen. John Glenn (D) 51%, Mike DeWine (R) 42%
1998: George Voinovich (R) 56%, Mary O. Boyle (D) 44%
2004: Sen. George Voinovich (R) 64%, Eric Fingerhut (D) 36%

Voinovich’s retirement opens up a Senate seat in a totally tossup environment. Republicans lucked out when Rob Portman, a former Congressman, Trade Representative, and OMB Director, announced his candidacy. He seems to have cleared the field. The Democratic situation is muddled. The likeliest candidates at this time are Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher (who anonymous sources have said is leaning against running), and Representatives Tim Ryan and Zack Space. Portman starts out with meaningless, low 40’s to mid 30’s lead, against all of the Democrats in polling.

Any open Senate seat in Ohio obviously starts out as a tossup. I give the early edge to the GOP due to a better candidate situation. They will need an improvement in the political climate to hold this seat, however.

Junior Senator - Sherrod Brown (D)

1994: Mike DeWine (R) 53%, Joel Hyatt (D) 39%
2000: Sen. Mike DeWine (R) 60%, Ted Celeste (D) 36%
2006: Sherrod Brown (D) 56%, Sen. Mike DeWine (R) 44%

Brown owes his victory to Republican screwups in 2006. He’s probably too liberal for the state, so I would expect a challenge in 2012. His future is probably tied to the President’s.

House 1 - Steven Dreihaus (D)

2004: Rep. Steve Chabot (R) 60%, Greg Harris (D) 40%
2006: Rep. Steve Chabot (R) 52%, John Cranley (D) 48%
2008: Steven Dreihaus (D) 52%, John Cranley (R) 48%

This Cincinnati seat could go either way, but it is trending Democratic and has a 27% black population. This combination spelled doom for Republicans in 2008. The GOP should mount a strong challenge in 2010, but I’d rate Dreihaus an early favorite. Oddly, this seat should be easier to hold in 2012 than 2010, due to increased black turnout for the President.

House 2 - Jean Schmidt (R)

2004: Rep. Robert J. Portman (R) 72%, Charles W. Sanders (D) 28%
2005 special: Jean Schmidt (R) 52%, Paul Hackett (D) 48%
2006: Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) 50%, Victoria Wulsin (D) 49%
2008: Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) 45%, Victoria Wulsin (D) 38%

This safe Republican seat keeps ending up on target lists because, frankly, Schmidt is a moron. Even so, given the 2008 result she is not out of danger, but the seat will continue to lean her way as long as she keeps her muzzle on.

House 3 - Mike Turner (R)

2004: Rep. Mike Turner (R) 62%, Jane Mitakides (D) 38%
2006: Rep. Mike Turner (R) 59%, Richard Chema (D) 41%
2008: Rep. Mike Turner (R) 63%, Jane Mitakides (D) 37%

This Dayton based seat looks like a tossup on paper, but Turner has sailed through two brutal environments. He is likely fine.

House 4 - Jim Jordan (R)

2004: Rep. Michael Oxley (R) 59%, Ben Konop (D) 41%
2006: Jim Jordan (R) 60%, Rick Siferd (D) 40%
2008: Rep. Jim Jordan (R) 65%, Mike Carroll (D) 35%

The Republican Party really might disintegrate if this one ever becomes a problem.

House 5 - Bob Latta (R)

2004: Rep. Paul Gillmor (R) 67%, Robin Weirauch (D) 33%
2006: Rep. Paul Gillmor (R) 57%, Robin Weirauch (D) 43%
2007 special: Bob Latta (R) 57%, Robin Weirauch (D) 43%
2008: Rep. Bob Latta (R) 64%, George Mays (D) 36%

This is another safe Republican district.

House 6 - Charlie Wilson (D)

2004: Rep. Ted Strickland (D) unopposed
2006: Charlie Wilson (D) 62%, Chuck Blasdel (R) 38%
2008: Rep. Charlie Wilson (D) 62%, Dick Stobbs (D) 33%

Believe it or not, this huge Southeast Ohio district votes at around the national average. You’d never know it from the terrible Republican performances in the House races. Even if Republicans got their act together, this seat now leans Democratic.

House 7 - Steve Austria (R)

2004: Rep. David Hobson (R) 65%, Kara Anastasio (D) 35%
2006: Rep. David Hobson (R) 61%, William Conner (D) 39%
2008: Steve Austria (R) 58%, Sharen Neuhardt (D) 42%

Austria had no problem winning this Republican leaning Springfield based seat. That is no small praise in a year like 2008. He is probably secure going forward.

House 8 - John Boehner (R)

2004: Rep. John Boehner (R) 69%, Jeff Hardenbrook (D) 31%
2006: Rep. John Boehner (R) 64%, Mort Meier (D) 36%
2008: Rep. John Boehner (R) 68%, Nick von Stein (D) 32%

Can somebody tell me Boehner’s tanning secret?

House 9 - Marcy Kaptur (D)

2004: Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) 68%, Larry Kaczala (R) 32%
2006: Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) 74%, Bradley Leavitt (R) 26%
2008: Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) 74%, Bradley Leavitt (R) 26%

This mostly Democratic Lorain to Toledo seat is safe as long as Kaptur runs.

House 10 - Dennis Kucinich (D)

2004: Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D) 60%, Edward Herman (R) 34%
2006: Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D) 66%, Michael Dovilla (R) 34%
2008: Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D) 57%, Jim Trakas (R) 39%

This West Cleveland seat is not quite as Democratic as you’d think given that it elects Kucinich. That could give the Secretary of Peace some problems at some point, but it probably will not.

House 11 - Marcia Fudge (D)

2004: Rep. Stephanie Tubbs-Jones (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. Stephanie Tubbs-Jones (D) 83%, Lindsey String (R) 17%
2008: Marcia Fudge (D) 85%, Thomas Pekarek (R) 15%
2008 special: Marcia Fudge (D) unopposed

Fudge is about as likely to lose an election as Hosni Mubarak.

House 12 - Pat Tiberi (R)

2004: Rep. Pat Tiberi (R) 62%, Edward Brown (D) 38%
2006: Rep. Pat Tiberi (R) 57%, Bob Shamansky (D) 43%
2008: Rep. Pat Tiberi (R) 55%, David Robinson (D) 42%

Tiberi has done well to hold his tossup Columbus based seat through the Republican disasters of 2006 and 2008. Even so, his dropping performance should cause some concern. If I were the DCCC I would target this seat.

House 13 - Betty Sutton (D)

2004: Rep. Sherrod Brown (D) 67%, Robert Lucas (R) 33%
2006: Betty Sutton (D) 61%, Craig Foltin (R) 39%
2008: Rep. Betty Sutton (D) 65%, David Potter (R) 35%

Sutton has solidified herself beyond challenge in this Democratic leaning Akron/Loraine/suburban Cleveland district.

House 14 - Steven LaTourette (R)

2004: Rep. Steven LaTourette (R) 63%, Capri Cafaro (D) 37%
2006: Rep. Steven LaTourette (R) 58%, Lewis Katz (D) 39%
2008: Rep. Steven LaTourette (R) 58%, William O’Neill (D) 39%

This is the sort of swing seat Democrats will be targeting going forward. Having survived the purges however, LaTourette has a strong advantage in this Northeast Ohio seat.

House 15 - Mary Jo Kilroy (D)

2004: Rep. Deborah Pryce (R) 60%, Mark Brown (D) 40%
2006: Rep. Deborah Pryce (R) 50%, Mary Jo Kilroy (D) 50%
2008: Mary Jo Kilroy (D) 46%, Steve Stivers (R) 45%

Given the environment, Kilroy should have won this marginal Columbus based seat in 2006 and should have won it by more in 2008. She strikes me as a weak incumbent. This should be one of the hardest fought and closest elections in the country again in 2010, but it is one in which I give the Republicans the advantage for the pickup.

House 16 - John Boccieri (D)

2004: Rep. Ralph Reugla (R) 67%, Jeff Seemann (D) 33%
2006: Rep. Ralph Regula (R) 58%, Thomas Shaw (R) 42%
2008: John Boccieri (D) 55%, Kirk Schuring (R) 45%

This Canton based seat leans Republican, and all else equal should be more difficult to hold than the 15th. However, Boccieri has proved quite impressive, and I would favor him even as I rate this one a tossup.

House 17 - Tim Ryan (D)

2004: Rep. Tim Ryan (D) 77%, Frank Cusimano (R) 23%
2006: Rep. Tim Ryan (D) 80%, Don Manning (R) 20%
2008: Rep. Tim Ryan (D) 78%, Duane Grassell (R) 22%

Every time I see a picture of Ryan, I can’t believe he is not related to former ESPN bowling commentator (and major doofus) Dave Ryan, for whom he is a dead ringer. That aside, Ryan is totally safe.

House 18 - Zack Space (D)

2004: Rep. Bob Ney (R) 66%, Brian Thomas (D) 34%
2006: Zack Space (D) 62%, Joy Padgett (R) 38%
2008: Rep. Zack Space (D) 60%, Fred Dailey (R) 40%

Space won this Republican leaning Southeast Ohio seat in a cloud of scandal, but he was quite impressive in keeping it, even in a huge Democratic year. Space should by all rights be in major trouble in a more neutral year. He’ll never be safe, but he is a favorite for 2010.