State of the Race - Mississippi

The Magnolia State has come a long way in overcoming its miserable history of race relations and economic performance. Its voting patterns, however, continue to reflect old splits. Almost all blacks are liberal and vote Democratic. A supermajority of whites are conservative and vote Republican, at least in federal races. More conservative Mississippi Democrats can win local and state races, which has helped them hold the State House and pick up a very conservative House seat in a 2008 special election. Even though Mississippi has a higher percentage of blacks than any state in the nation, 2008 teaches us that no matter high black turnout gets, it cannot elect a liberal Democrat on its own.

The status quo looks like it will hold in Mississippi for the foreseeable future. Republicans’ first order of business will be to reclaim the First District House seat lost in 2008. The seat is solidly Republican, so a better Republican candidate and political climate should give the GOP an excellent chance of getting the seat back.


President - 6 Electoral Votes

2000: George Bush (R) 58%, Al Gore (D) 41%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 59%, John Kerry (D) 40%
2008: John McCain (R) 56%, Barack Obama (D) 43%

As we illustrated on Beyond the Polls, even with a huge increase in black turnout, Obama would need to do significantly better among whites than John Kerry had in order to think about winning. He didn’t, and thus lost the state badly even with a surge in black turnout. There is no reason to expect anything different for 2012.

Governor - Haley Barbour (R)

1999: Ronnie Musgrove (D) 50%, Mike Parker (R) 49%
2003: Haley Barbour (R) 53%, Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D) 46%
2007: Gov. Haley Barbour (R) 58%, John Eaves (D) 42%

Barbour cannot run for reelection in 2011. Republicans will be the default option to keep the seat, especially since Democrats won’t have an Obama-inspired black turnout. A conservative Democrat could have a chance, however.

Senior Senator - Thad Cochran (R)

1996: Sen. Thad Cochran (R) 71%, James W. Hunt (D) 27%
2002: Sen. Thad Cochran (R) unopposed
2008: Sen. Thad Cochran (R) 62%, Erik Fleming (D) 38%

Cochran is a Senator-for-life. His reduced percentage resulted solely from increased black turnout for Obama also voting for the Democrat Fleming for Senate.

Junior Senator - Roger Wicker (R)

1994: Sen. Trent Lott (R) 69%, Ken Harper (D) 31%
2000: Sen. Trent Lott (R) 66%, Troy Brown (D) 32%
2006: Sen. Trent Lott (R) 64%, Erik Fleming (D) 35%
2008 special: Sen. Roger Wicker (R) 55%, Ronnie Musgrove (D) 45%

Wicker entered the 2008 special election as an appointed Senator with very little name recognition statewide, running in a Democratic year with a big black turnout against a well known, conservative opponent. This was a real opportunity for Democrats, but Musgrove simply had too much baggage from his time in the Governor’s Mansion to get enough white votes to win. If Democrats couldn’t come close to Wicker in 2008, they never will.

House 1 - Travis Childers (D)

2004: Rep. Roger Wicker (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Roger Wicker (R) 66%, James Hurt (D) 34%
2008 special: Travis Childers (D) 54%, Greg Davis (R) 46%*
2008: Rep. Travis Childers (D) 55%, Greg Davis (R) 44%

*Runoff

This seat should never go to the Democrats. In this instance, the combination of a special election, Democratic wave, a good conservative Democrat, and weak Republican pushed Childers over the top. The increased black turnout ensured a repeat in November. This district would normally be an easy bet to dump a Democrat after one term, but if any Democrat is suited to hold it then Childers is the guy. I rate this a tossup for 2010. The area will vote for Mississippi Democrats, but if I had to guess I think a national backlash against Democrats will occur that will keep Childers from duplicating the career of Gene Taylor.

House 2 - Bennie Thompson (D)

2004: Rep. Bennie Thompson (D) 58%, Clinton LeSueur (R) 41%
2006: Rep. Bennie Thompson (D) 64%, Yvonne Brown (R) 34%
2008: Rep. Bennie Thompson (D) 69%, Richard Cook (R) 31%

This black majority seat is heavily Democratic.

House 3 - Chip Pickering (R)

2004: Rep. Chip Pickering (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Chip Pickering (R) unopposed
2008: Gregg Harper (R) 63%, Joel Gill (D) 37%

This overwhelmingly Republican district should not give Harper any trouble.

House 4 - Gene Taylor (D)

2004: Rep. Gene Taylor (D) 64%, Michael Lott (R) 35%
2006: Rep. Gene Taylor (D) 80%, Randy McDonnell (R) 20%
2008: Rep. Gene Taylor (D) 75%, John McCay (R) 25%

This is a massively Republican and conservative district, in fact the most Republican in Mississippi. Yet, it continually keeps electing Taylor. For his part, Taylor almost never agrees with the national party on anything. Republicans really should try running a decent candidate here in hopes of tying Taylor to his party, but the incumbent would be favored over even the strongest challenge.