State of the Race

As I spend time analyzing these races in detail, I am reminded just how hard it is to this exercise so early in the cycle. For now, Republicans continue to have a hard time. Barack Obama continues to be very popular and Republicans are already having trouble with retirements and candidate recruitment.

President

The rankings remain frozen until the inauguration. Obama begins with a clear lead over Republican favorite Mitt Romney, with a range of Electoral Votes between 292 and 405. Expect him to expand this lead when he takes office as his favorable ratings should be through the roof.


Tier I (Tossup)

Obama (62)

Arizona(+2)
Colorado
Missouri(-1)
Ohio(-2)
Virginia

Romney (61)

Arkansas
Georgia(+1)
Louisiana(-1)
North Carolina
Tennessee
West Virginia

Tier II (Leaning)

Obama (97)

Florida(+2)
Iowa(-1)
Minnesota(-1)
Nevada(+1)
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Oregon(+1)
Pennsylvania(-1)
Wisconsin

Romney (80)

Alabama
Indiana
Kentucky
Mississippi
South Carolina
Texas(+4)

Tier III (Likely)

Obama (87)

California
Maine
Michigan(-1)
Washington(+1)

Romney (19)

Kansas
Montana
Oklahoma
South Dakota

Tier IV (Safe)

Obama (108)

Connecticut
Delaware
DC
Hawaii
Illinois(-1)
Maryland
Massachusetts(-1)
New Jersey(-1)
New York(-2)
Rhode Island
Vermont

Romney (24)

Alaska
Idaho
Nebraska
North Dakota
Utah(+1)
Wyoming

Current Outlook
Electoral Vote
Obama 354 (pick up AZ, MO)
Romney 184 (pick up IN, NC)

Popular Vote
Obama 53.9%
Romney 46.1%

Governors

I did make one change this week. That comes in New Jersey, where I move the race from Likely GOP to Tossup Dem. Nothing happened to prompt this. I simply examined the race in more detail for my State of the Day column on New Jersey. Corzine's approval ratings remain low, but interestingly his disapproval ratings aren't high either, indicating he may be able to get a majority of grudging voters. Combined with his money, a crowded Republican field, and New Jersey's basic blueness, I simply changed my opinion.

Also, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson will presumably finish his term after withdrawing his nomination for Commerce Secretary. This hurts the Democrats marginally, both because of the grand jury investigation which prompted the change and because Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish cannot establish herself or clear the Democratic field. These changes do not change my rating of the race, at least for now.

Democrats currently lead 29-21 in total Governors. That will become 28-22 when Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano resigns to become Secretary of Homeland Security. Democrats lead 7-5 in races not up in 2009 or 2010. While we currently project a six seat Republican gain, giving them a majority, that gain could be as much as 11. Then again, Democrats could pick up as many as three seats.

Tier I (Toss Up)

Democrat (5)

Connecticut (Jodi Rell)
Massachusetts (Deval Patrick)
New Mexico (Bill Richardson retiring)
Oregon (Ted Kulongoski retiring)
Pennsylvania (Ed Rendell retiring)

Republican (9)

Arizona (Janet Napolitano retiring)
Colorado (Bill Ritter)
Florida (Charlie Crist)
Iowa (Chet Culver)
Maryland (Martin O'Malley)
Minnesota (Tim Pawlenty)
Tennessee (Phil Bredesen retiring)
Texas (Rick Perry)
Virginia (Tim Kaine retiring)

Tier II (Leaning)

Democrat (5)

California (Arnold Schwarzenegger retiring)
Maine (John Baldacci retiring)
Michigan (Jennifer Granholm retiring)
New Jersey (Jon Corzine)
Vermont (Jim Douglas)

Republican (1)

Georgia (Sonny Perdue retiring)

Tier III (Likely)

Democrat (4)

Arkansas (Mike Beebe)
Hawaii (Linda Lingle retiring)
New Hampshire (John Lynch)
New York (David Paterson)

Republican (4)

Alabama (Bob Riley retiring)
Ohio (Ted Strickland)
South Carolina (Mark Sanford retiring)
Wisconsin (James Doyle)

Tier IV (Safe)

Democrat (2)

Nevada (Jim Gibbons)
Rhode Island (Donald Carcieri retiring)

Republican (8)

Alaska (Sarah Palin)
Idaho (Butch Otter)
Illinois (Rod Blagojevich)
Kansas (Kathleen Sebelius retiring)
Nebraska (Dave Heineman)
Oklahoma (Brad Henry retiring)
South Dakota (Mike Rounds retiring)
Wyoming (Dave Freudenthal retiring)

Current Outlook
Republicans 27 (pick up AZ, CO, IL, IA, KS, MD, OH, OK, TN, VA, WI, WY)
Democrats 23 (pick up CA, CT, HI, NV, RI, VT)

Senate

We moved closer to seating a full Senate this week. In Minnesota, election officials certified Al Franken as the narrow winner over Norm Coleman. The Republican is contesting the result, delaying Franken's ascension to the Senate. While legally I think Coleman has a good case, practically, he is just delaying the inevitable.

Also, it is becoming evident that Roland Burris will soon become the Senator from Illinois. I'm not yet ready to say how that will affect the 2010 race for that seat.

In Florida, Jeb Bush announced he would not seek the state's open Senate seat. This is a blow to the GOP, as he would have been heavily favored. I had never assumed he would run, so the rating remains the same.

Finally, Missouri Republican Christopher "Kit" Bond announced that he will not run for reelection in 2010. Bond was hardly safe, but this is still bad news for the GOP. The open race is about as close to tossup as you can get. The state leans Republican on the national level. However, Democrats have done very well on the state level and seem to have a very good, obvious candidate in Secretary of State Robin Carnahan. I'll give the GOP the edge for now, but that's purely arbitrary. This is a tossup two years out, and it moves from Lean GOP to Tossup GOP.

Democrats lead 44-22 in seats not up for election in 2010. We currently project a push in 2010, with a range of a four seat Democratic gain to a four seat Republican gain.

Tier I (Toss Up)

Democrat (4)

Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln)
Florida (Mel Martinez retiring)
Indiana (Evan Bayh)
North Dakota (Byron Dorgan)

Republican (4)

Colorado (Ken Salazar retiring)
Louisiana (David Vitter)
Missouri (Christopher "Kit" Bond retiring)
Pennsylvania (Arlen Specter)

Tier II (Leaning)

Democrat (3)

Nevada (Harry Reid)
Washington (Patty Murray)
Wisconsin (Russell Feingold)

Republican (4)

Kentucky (Jim Bunning)
North Carolina (Richard Burr)
South Carolina (Jim DeMint)
South Dakota (John Thune)

Tier III (Likely)

Democrat (3)

California (Barbara Boxer)
Illinois (Roland Burriss?)
Oregon (Ron Wyden)

Republican (5)

Alaska (Lisa Murkowski)
Georgia (Johnny Isakson)
New Hampshire (Judd Gregg)
Ohio (George Voinovich)
Oklahoma (Tom Coburn)

Tier IV (Safe)

Democrat (5)

Connecticut (Christopher Dodd)
Hawaii (Daniel Inouye)
Maryland (Barbara Mikulski)
New York (Charles Schumer)
Vermont (Patrick Leahy)

Republican (6)

Alabama (Richard Shelby)
Arizona (John McCain)
Idaho (Mike Crapo)
Iowa (Charles Grassley)
Kansas (Sam Brownback retiring)
Utah (Robert Bennett)

Current Outlook
Democrats 59 (pick up FL)
Republicans 41 (pick up CO)

House

We had sort of weird week in Tennessee. Rep. Lincoln Davis, a Democrat in TN-4, announced that he is still deciding whether or not to run for Governor after earlier announcing his candidacy. For purposes here we put him back in the race for reelection to his House seat, which returns his seat to Tossup Dem from Tossup GOP. His Republican colleague, Zach Wamp of TN-3, did announce his candidacy for Governor. Wamp was safe in a district that is mostly, but not totally Republican. This is a uphill climb for Democrats, though the open seat is close enough to where I can't totally write it off. TN-3 moves from Safe GOP to Likely GOP.

This brings us to an 18 seat gain for Republicans. At this early date, the range of outcomes is quite wide, from an 10 seat Democratic pickup to a 47 seat GOP gain. Republicans will need 40 seats to take the majority.

Tier I (Toss Up)

Democrat (29)

AZ-1 (Ann Kirkpatrick)
AZ-8 (Gabrielle Giffords)
CA-11 (Jerry McNerney)
CO-3 (John Salazar)
FL-24 (Suzanne Kosmas)
IL-8 (Melissa Bean)
IL-14 (Bill Foster)
IN-8 (Brad Ellsworth)
IN-9 (Baron Hill)
KS-3 (Dennis Moore)
MI-9 (Gary Peters)
MO-4 (Ike Skelton)
NH-1 (Carol Shea-Porter)
NJ-3 (John Adler)
NM-2 (Harry Teague)
NY-24 (Michael Arcuri)
NC-8 (Larry Kissell)
NC-11 (Heath Shuler)
OH-1 (Steven Dreihaus)
OH-16 (John Boccieri)
OH-18 (Zack Space)
OR-5 (Kurt Schrader)
PA-3 (Kathy Dahlkemper)
PA-4 (Jason Altmire)
SC-5 (John Spratt)
TN-4 (Lincoln Davis)
TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez)
VA-11 (Gerry Connolly)
WI-8 (Steve Kagen)

Republican (28)

AL-5 (Parker Griffith)
AZ-5 (Harry Mitchell)
CA-50 (Brian Bilbray)
CO-4 (Betsy Markey)
DE-AL (Michael Castle)
FL-8 (Alan Grayson)
GA-8 (Jim Marshall)
IL-10 (Mark Kirk)
LA-4 (John Fleming)
LA-6 (Bill Cassidy)
MI-7 (Mark Schauer)
MI-11 (Thaddeus McCotter)
MN-3 (Erik Paulsen)
MN-6 (Michele Bachmann)
MS-1 (Travis Childers)
NV-3 (Dina Titus)
NJ-2 (Frank LoBiondo)
NJ-7 (Leonard Lance)
NY-29 (Eric Massa)
ND-AL (Earl Pomeroy)
OH-12 (Pat Tiberi)
OH-15 (Mary Jo Kilroy)
PA-6 (Jim Gerlach)
PA-10 (Christopher Carney)
UT-2 (Jim Matheson)
VA-2 (Glenn Nye)
VA-5 (Tom Perriello)
WA-8 (Dave Reichert)

Tier II (Leaning)

Democrat (24)

CO-7 (Ed Perlmutter)
CT-4 (Jim Himes)
FL-2 (Allen Boyd)
FL-22 (Ron Klein)
IL-11 (Debbie Halvorson)
IA-3 (Leonard Boswell)
KY-3 (John Yarmuth)
KY-6 (Ben Chandler)
ME-1 (Chellie Pingree)
MN-1 (Tim Walz)
MS-4 (Gene Taylor)
NH-2 (Paul Hodes)
NM-1 (Martin Heinrich)
NY-1 (Tim Bishop)
NY-13 (Michael McMahon)
NY-19 (John Hall)
NY-20 (Kirsten Gillibrand)
NY-25 (Dan Maffei)
OH-6 (Charlie Wilson)
PA-8 (Patrick Murphy)
PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski)
PA-17 (Tim Holden)
SD-AL (Stephanie Herseth Sandlin)
TX-27 (Solomon Ortiz)

Republican (34)

AL-2 (Bobby Bright)
AL-3 (Mike Rogers)
AZ-3 (John Shadegg)
CA-3 (Dan Lungren)
CA-4 (Tom McClintock)
CA-26 (David Dreier)
CA-44 (Ken Calvert)
CA-45 (Mary Bono)
CA-46 (Dana Rohrabacher)
FL-10 (Bill Young)
FL-13 (Vern Buchanan)
FL-15 (Bill Posey)
FL-16 (Tom Rooney)
FL-18 (Ileana Ros-Lehtinen)
FL-25 (Mario Diaz-Balart)
IL-6 (Peter Roskam)
IL-13 (Judy Biggert)
IA-4 (Tom Latham)
KS-2 (Lynn Jenkins)
MD-1 (Frank Kratovil)
MI-6 (Fred Upton)
MI-8 (Mike Rogers)
MN-2 (John Kline)
MO-9 (Blaine Luetkemeyer)
NE-2 (Lee Terry)
NV-2 (Dean Heller)
NJ-5 (Scott Garrett)
NY-3 (Peter King)
NY-26 (Christopher Lee)
OH-2 (Jean Schmidt)
OH-14 (Steven LaTourette)
PA-15 (Charlie Dent)
SC-1 (Henry Brown)
WV-2 (Shelley Moore Capito)

Tier III (Likely)

Democrat (22)

CT-5 (Chris Murphy)
GA-12 (John Barrow)
IN-2 (Joe Donnelly)
IA-2 (Dave Loebsack)
LA-2 (Anh Cao)
MI-1 (Bart Stupak)
MN-7 (Collin Peterson)
NM-3 (Ben Lujan)
NC-2 (Bob Etheridge)
NC-7 (Mike McIntyre)
NC-13 (Brad Miller)
OH-10 (Dennis Kucinich)
OK-2 (Dan Boren)
PA-7 (Joe Sestak)
PA-12 (John Murtha)
TX-25 (Lloyd Doggett)
TX-28 (Henry Cuellar)
WA-2 (Rick Larsen)
WA-3 (Brian Baird)
WV-3 (Nick Rahall)
WI-3 (Ron Kind)
WI-7 (David Obey)

Republican (36)

AK-AL (Don Young)
CA-24 (Elton Gallegly)
CA-25 (Buck McKeon)
CA-48 (John Campbell)
CA-52 (Duncan D. Hunter)
FL-5 (Ginny Brown-Waite)
FL-7 (John Mica)
FL-9 (Gus Bilirakis)
FL-12 (Adam Putnam)
FL-21 (Lincoln Diaz-Balart)
ID-1 (Walt Minnick)
IL-16 (Don Manzullo)
IL-18 (Aaron Schock)
IA-5 (Steve King)
KY-2 (Brett Guthrie)
MI-2 (Pete Hoekstra retiring)
MI-4 (Dave Camp)
MO-6 (Sam Graves)
NJ-4 (Chris Smith)
NJ-11 (Rodney Frelinghuysen)
NY-23 (John McHugh)
OH-3 (Mike Turner)
OH-7 (Steve Austria)
PA-5 (G.T. Thompson)
PA-16 (Joe Pitts)
PA-18 (Tim Murphy)
SC-2 (Joe Wilson)
TN-3 (Zach Wamp retiring)
TX-10 (Michael McCaul)
TX-17 (Chet Edwards)
TX-22 (Pete Olson)
TX-32 (Pete Sessions)
VA-1 (Rob Wittman)
VA-4 (Randy Forbes)
VA-10 (Frank Wolf)
WI-1 (Paul Ryan)

Tier IV (Safe)

Democrat (164)

Republican (98)

Current Outlook-
Democrats 239 (pick up LA-2)
Republicans 198 (pick up AL-2, AL-5, AZ-5, CO-4, FL-5, GA-5, ID-1, MD-1, MI-7, MS-1, NV-3, NY-29, ND-AL, OH-15, PA-10, TX-17, UT-2, VA-2, VA-5)