State of the Day - Oklahoma

The Sooner State straddles a cultural line between South and West. Politically, this has resulted in a sort of economic libertarianism and a strong social conservatism. In recent years, this combination has benefited Republicans almost exclusively. National Democrats have had no success here and do not look to have any in the near future. Oklahoma Democrats, who unlike most states have their greatest success in rural Oklahoma, can only succeed with the sort of social conservatism unacceptable to most Democrats elsewhere in the nation.

Republicans should continue to dominate in Oklahoma. The main task for them will be regaining the Governor’s Mansion, and they should have an excellent chance to do so. Democratic Governor Brad Henry won seven years ago with outsized rural support based in no small measure due to his opposition to a ban on cockfighting. He has remained popular, but finds himself term-limited. Democrats will need to find a way to develop another issue that gives them a clear advantage over Republicans.


President - 7 Electoral Votes

2000: George Bush (R) 60%, Al Gore (D) 38%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 66%, Al Gore (D) 34%
2008: John McCain (R) 66%, Barack Obama (D) 34%

Oklahoma was one of the few states (Arkansas and Tennessee were the others) in which John McCain did better than George W. Bush ever did. In fact, McCain carried every Oklahoma county. Oklahoma has relatively small numbers of blacks and college graduates and a relatively old population. In other words, if you were designing a state that would not buy into the President’s appeal, it would look like Oklahoma. No matter how popular he gets, he won’t come close to winning Oklahoma.

Governor - Brad Henry (D)

1998: Gov. Frank Keating (R) 58%, Laura Boyd (D) 41%
2002: Brad Henry (D) 43%, Steve Largent (R) 43%
2006: Gov. Brad Henry (D) 67%, Ernest Istook (R) 33%

Henry cannot run for reelection. Democrats look to be headed for a primary between Lieutenant Governor Jari Askins and Attorney General Drew Edmondson. The leading Republicans appear to be Representatives Tom Cole and Mary Fallin, though neither has announced an intent to run as of now.

Republicans have a basic advantage in Oklahoma, though less so in a state race. Either Cole or Fallin would have to potential to be a strong candidate. Democrats also seem to be headed for a nasty primary, which won’t help them. However, either Democrat should be an above average candidate. Combined with Henry’s continued popularity, Democrats have a real chance of holding the Governor’s Mansion.

Senior Senator - James Inhofe (R)

1996: Sen. James Inhofe (R) 57%, James Boren (D) 40%
2002: Sen. James Inhofe (R) 57%, David Walters (D) 36%
2008: Sen. James Inhofe (R) 57%, Andrew Rice (D) 39%

Inhofe appears to have settled into a comfortable situation, though he continually runs a few points behind a generic Republican. Oklahoma is much too Republican in federal races for that to pose any threat to Inhofe.

Junior Senator - Tom Coburn (R)

1992: Sen. Don Nickles (R) 59%, Steve Lewis (D) 38%
1998: Sen. Don Nickles (R) 66%, Don E. Carroll (D) 31%
2004: Tom Coburn (R) 53%, Brad Carson (D) 41%

Coburn is probably the most ideologically pure conservative in the Senate, though that’s hardly a problem in Oklahoma. It does not look like Democrats will pose a serious challenge to him in 2010, and there is no reason to think that it would do them any good.

House 1 - John Sullivan (R)

2004: Rep. John Sullivan (R) 60%, Doug Dodd (D) 38%
2006: Rep. John Sullivan (R) 64%, Alan Gentges (D) 31%
2008: Rep. John Sullivan (R) 66%, Georgianna Oliver (D) 34%

Sullivan may challenge himself to keep improving his percentages, but he’ll never have to worry about losing to a Democrat.

House 2 - Dan Boren (D)

2004: Dan Boren (D) 66%, Wayland Smalley (R) 34%
2006: Rep. Dan Boren (D) 73%, Patrick Miller (R) 27%
2008: Rep. Dan Boren (D) 70%, Raymond Wickson (R) 30%

This McAlester/Muskogee/East Oklahoma seat is the “Democratic district” in Oklahoma, even though it leans Republican by national standards (both Bush and McCain easily carried this seat). It’s Republican enough to where you cannot discount totally the thought of a challenge to Boren, but his great name and moderate record make it highly likely Boren can continue until he decides to run for higher office.

House 3 - Frank Lucas (R)

2004: Rep. Frank Lucas (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Frank Lucas (R) 67%, Sue Barton (D) 33%
2008: Rep. Frank Lucas (R) 70%, Frankie Robbins (D) 24%

This is a completely safe Republican district.

House 4 - Tom Cole (R)

2004: Rep. Tom Cole (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Tom Cole (R) 65%, Hal Spake (D) 35%
2008: Rep. Tome Cole (R) 66%, Blake Cummings (D) 29%

Cole may be persona non grata in Washington after his disastrous tenure as chair of the NRCC, but he’s fine here.

House 5 - Mary Fallin (R)

2004: Rep. Ernest Istook (R) 66%, Bert Smith (D) 34%
2006: Mary Fallin (R) 60%, David Hunter (D) 37%
2008: Rep. Mary Fallin (R) 66%, Stephen L. Perry (D) 34%

Fallin has overcome sensational charges of having an affair with a state trooper on her security detail to become safely ensconced in the House.