State of the Day - Pennsylvania

The Keystone State, with two big liberal cities, a whole lot of conservative country, and volatile suburbs, has long been a pretty good microcosm of America. Over the last few years, the state has tipped just to the left of the United States, voting closely against George W. Bush twice and heavily for the President in 2008. We can almost say now that Pennsylvania is a Democratic state. Democrat Ed Rendell won easily for Governor in 2002 and 2006. In 2006, Democrats took a Senate seat and four House seats. 2008 saw the Democrats add another House seat. The end result of the last four years has put Democrats with (the exception of the State Senate) controlling Pennsylvania politics.

2010 will go a long way to determining the future of politics here. Governor Rendell cannot run again. The parties have traded eight year tenures in the Governor’s Mansion for several generations, and the race should be hard fought. Senator Arlen Specter looks as vulnerable as ever, to a conservative challenge if not a Democrat. The Republicans also hope to pick off a few of the more vulnerable Democratic House seats. It should be a very interesting year in Pennsylvania politics.


President - 21 Electoral Votes

2000: Al Gore (D) 51%, George Bush (R) 46%
2004: John Kerry (D) 51%, Pres. George Bush (R) 48%
2008: Barack Obama (D) 55%, John McCain (R) 44%

John McCain, like George W. Bush, tried his hardest to win Pennsylvania, but unlike Bush he didn’t even come close. Despite all the campaigning and expenditures here, the state still voted the two points more Democratic than the national average that it always does. While Pennsylvania should continue to see major fights, it also is not going to determine the winner. It is the mirror image of Florida. If the Republicans win Pennsylvania, it is icing on the cake.

Governor - Ed Rendell (D)

1998: Gov. Tom Ridge (R) 57%, Ivan Itkin (D) 31%
2002: Ed Rendell (D) 53%, Mike Fisher (R) 44%
2006: Gov. Ed Rendell (D) 60%, Lynn Swann (R) 40%

Rendell cannot run for reelection. The parties have traded off the Governor’s Mansion every eight years since 1954. Attorney General Tom Corbett, who somehow managed to get reelected in the 2008 GOP disaster, looks likely to run. He’s a strong candidate, but Democrats have grabbed an edge in Pennsylvania, winning most statewide races this decade. The race starts as a tossup, but I’d have to give the Democrats the edge.

Senior Senator - Arlen Specter (R)

1992: Sen. Arlen Specter (R) 49%, Lynn Yeakel (D) 46%
1998: Sen. Arlen Specter (R) 61%, Bill Lloyd (D) 35%
2004: Sen. Arlen Specter (R) 53%, Joe Hoeffel (D) 42%

Every six years, the liberal Specter gets a primary challenger. Every time, he barely survives, before more easily beating back a strong challenge in the general election. This seems to be the scenario playing out this year. Governor Ed Rendell could probably beat Specter, but has expressed no interest in running. Representative Allyson Schwartz is seriously considering a run. She’s a good candidate and fundraiser and has a moderate record, but has no statewide name recognition. A more conservative candidate, should one defeat Specter, would have a hard time winning a general election. The odds are better than even that Specter holds on, but there is a serious chance that Pennsylvania elects a new Senator.

Junior Senator - Bob Casey (D)

1994: Rick Santorum (R) 49%, Sen. Harris Wofford (D) 47%
2000: Sen. Rick Santorum (R) 52%, Ron Klink (D) 46%
2006: Bob Casey (D) 59%, Sen. Rick Santorum (R) 41%

A pro-life Democrat with a great Pennsylvania name, Casey is well situated to win broad based victories for a long time.

House 1 - Robert Brady (D)

2004: Rep. Robert Brady (D) 86%, Deborah Williams (R) 13%
2006: Rep. Robert Brady (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. Robert Brady (D) 91%, Mike Muhammad (R) 9%

By his own admission, Brady spends 95% of his time on his other job as Philadelphia Democratic Boss. This makes me wonder why he is in Congress. This distant third place finish in 2007 primary for Mayor makes me wonder how effective he is at being a boss.

House 2 - Chaka Fattah (D)

2004: Rep. Chaka Fattah (D) 88%, Stewart Bolno (R) 12%
2006: Rep. Chaka Fattah (D) 89%, Michael Gessner (R) 9%
2008: Rep. Chaka Fattah (D) 89%, Adam Lang (R) 11%

Fattah is beyond safe in this seat, but his mayoral ambitions are probably dashed after finishing behind even Brady in the 2007 primary.

House 3 - Kathy Dahlkemper (D)

2004: Rep. Phil English (R) 60%, Steven Porter (D) 40%
2006: Rep. Phil English (R) 54%, Steven Porter (D) 42%
2008: Kathy Dahlkemper (D) 51%, Rep. Phil English (R) 49%

English did not run a vigorous campaign, obviously a huge mistake in this very marginal Erie based seat. If Republicans are smart, they will target this seat. A better Republican year and a good GOP candidate would probably be favored to knock off Dahlkemper, though she won’t be an easy target.

House 4 - Jason Altmire (D)

2004: Rep. Melissa Hart (R) 63%, Stevan Drobnac (D) 36%
2006: Jason Altmire (D) 52%, Rep. Melissa Hart (R) 48%
2008: Rep. Jason Altmire (D) 56%, Melissa Hart (R) 44%

This swing seat in suburban Pittsburgh will continue to be a tossup until Altmire holds it in something other than a huge Democratic year. That said, his impressive 2008 performance makes him a favorite.

House 5 - G.T. Thompson (R)

2004: Rep. John Peterson (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. John Peterson (R) 60%, Donald Hilliard (D) 40%
2008: G.T. Thompson (R) 57%, Mark McCracken (D) 41%

Thompson’s performance was not impressive enough to move beyond “Likely Republican” to “Safe Republican”, but this is not really a winnable district for Democrats.

House 6 - Jim Gerlach (R)

2004: Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) 51%, Lois Murphy (D) 49%
2006: Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) 51%, Lois Murphy (D) 49%
2008: Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) 52%, Bob Roggio (D) 48%

This Reading/suburban Philly seat is a true tossup, but you have to give the edge to Gerlach given his ability to hold on through the past two cycles.

House 7 - Joe Sestak (D)

2004: Rep. Curt Weldon (R) 59%, Paul Scoles (D) 40%
2006: Joe Sestak (D) 56%, Rep. Curt Weldon (R) 44%
2008: Rep. Joe Sestak (D) 60%, Craig Williams (R) 40%

Sestak won this suburban Philly seat thanks in large part to a scandal involving the Republican incumbent. However, the seat does have a legitimate Democratic lean and Sestak should have little problem continuing to win.

House 8 - Patrick Murphy (D)

2004: Mike Fitzpatrick (R) 55%, Virginia Schrader (D) 43%
2006: Patrick Murphy (D) 50%, Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R) 50%
2008: Rep. Patrick Murphy (D) 57%, Tom Manion (R) 42%

This suburban Philly seat is another tossup on paper, but Murphy did enough in 2008 to make me think the seat leans Democratic as long as he stays.

House 9 - Bill Shuster (R)

2004: Rep. Bill Shuster (R) 69%, Paul Politis (D) 30%
2006: Rep. Bill Shuster (R) 69%, Tony Barr (D) 40%
2008: Rep. Bill Shuster (R) 64%, Tony Barr (D) 36%

The Shuster Dynasty is one of the greatest pork purveying institutions in U.S. history, so you have to think Shuster loves the idea of “infrastructure improvements”.

House 10 - Christopher Carney (D)

2004: Rep. Don Sherwood (R) unopposed
2006: Christopher Carney (D) 53%, Rep. Don Sherwood (R) 47%
2008: Rep. Christopher Carney (D) 56%, Chris Hackett (R) 44%

Carney won this mostly Republican Northeast Pennsylvania seat due to a scandal, so it was astounding to see the GOP fail to put up a serious challenge here in 2008. This one looks like a tossup for 2010, and a good Republican in a good year would be a favorite to regain this seat for the Republicans.

House 11 - Paul Kanjorski (D)

2004: Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) 72%, Joseph Leonardi (R) 28%
2008: Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) 52%, Lou Barletta (R) 48%

Only a big Democratic year saved Kanjorski in this Democratic leaning Scranton based seat, because on its own Kanjorski’s pathetically listless campaign would have fallen to anti-immigration activist Lou Barletta. Kanjorski needs to get his act together, but I would still rate this seat as leaning towards the Democrats.

House 12 - John Murtha (D)

2004: Rep. John Murtha (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. John Murtha (D) 61%, Diana Irey (R) 39%
2008: Rep. John Murtha (D) 58%, William Russell (R) 42%

Despite Murtha’s bizarre behavior over the past two years, including calling his own district a bunch of racists before the 2008 election, this Southwest Pennsylvania seat leans Democratic enough to where it is unlikely he will ever see real trouble.

House 13 - Allyson Schwartz (D)

2004: Allyson Schwartz (D) 56%, Melissa Brown (R) 41%
2006: Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D) 66%, Raj Bhakta (R) 34%
2008: Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D) 63%, Marina Katz (R) 35%

Schwartz has locked down this mostly Democratic suburban Philly seat.

House 14 - Mike Doyle (D)

2004: Rep. Mike Doyle (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. Mike Doyle (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. Mike Doyle (D) unopposed

This is an overwhelmingly Democratic seat. I cannot blame the Republicans for not trying here.

House 15 - Charlie Dent (R)

2004: Charlie Dent (R) 59%, Joe Driscoll (D) 39%
2006: Rep. Charlie Dent (R) 54%, Charles Dertinger (D) 43%
2008: Rep. Charlie Dent (R) 59%, Sam Bennett (D) 41%

Dent’s performance is impressive in the sort of swing seat that Democrats have picked up in spades the past two cycles. He has gained a serious edge in this Allentown based seat.

House 16 - Joe Pitts (R)

2004: Rep. Joe Pitts (R) 64%, Lois Herr (D) 34%
2006: Rep. Joe Pitts (R) 57%, Lois Herr (D) 40%
2008: Rep. Joe Pitts (R) 56%, Bruce Slater (D) 39%

Pitts is an underachiever, but this district is probably too Republican for it to matter.

House 17 - Tim Holden (D)

2004: Rep. Tim Holden (D) 59%, Scott Paterno (R) 39%
2006: Rep. Tim Holden (D) 65%, Matthew Wertz (R) 35%
2008: Rep. Tim Holden (D) 64%, Toni Gilhooley (R) 36%

This Harrisburg to Reading seat is quite Republican. Thus, while Holden has entrenched himself, I cannot rate this seat as more than leaning Democrat. Holden would be very vulnerable in a big Republican year, if we ever see one again.

House 18 - Tim Murphy (R)

2004: Rep. Tim Murphy (R) 63%, Mark Boles (D) 37%
2006: Rep. Tim Murphy (R) 58%, Chad Kluko (D) 42%
2008: Rep. Tim Murphy (R) 64%, Steve O’Donnell (D) 36%

As Democrats failed to come close to gaining this tossup suburban Pittsburgh seat during two huge Democratic years, it is highly unlikely they will do so in the future.

House 19 - Todd Platts (R)

2004: Rep. Todd Platts (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Todd Platts (R) 64%, Philip Avillo (D) 33%
2008: Rep. Todd Platts (R) 67%, Philip Avillo (D) 33%

Crazy Eyes Platts has no worries in this district.