State of the Day - Rhode Island

It doesn’t get much more Democratic than Little Rhody. Democrats dominate all levels of government from Presidential races down to State House and Town Councils. Republicans have had only two bastions of power here. The Chafee family held one Senate seat as increasingly liberal Republicans until Lincoln Chafee got bounced in 2006. Also, Republicans have managed to hold the Governor’s Mansion since 1995.

The only question here for 2010 is whether Republicans can hold onto the Governor’s Mansion. Governor Donald Carcieri is retiring, and this is always an uphill fight for Republicans. Neighboring Democratic stronghold Massachusetts finally elected a Democratic Governor in 2006 after sixteen years of Republicans, and Rhode Island Democrats have reason to hope that this is their year.


President – 4 Electoral Votes

2000: Al Gore (D) 61%, George Bush (R) 32%
2004: John Kerry (D) 59%, Pres. George Bush (R) 39%
2008: Barack Obama (D) 63%, John McCain (R) 35%

Well, if it is any consolation for McCain he ran relatively a bit better here than George W. Bush did. This state will never appear on anybody’s battleground list.

Governor – Donald Carcieri (R)

1998: Gov. Lincoln Almond (R) 51%, Myrth York (D) 42%
2002: Donald Carcieri (R) 55%, Myrth York (D) 45%
2006: Gov. Donald Carcieri (R) 51%, Charles Fogarty (D) 49%

Carcieri cannot run for reelection in 2010. This should be the year that Democrats finally take back the Governor’s Mansion. The leading Republican contenders, Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian and Steven Laffey, are probably too conservative for Rhode Island. Providence Mayor David Cicilline seems to be the most likely Democratic nominee. His name recognition and partisan identification give him a huge edge over any Republican.

Senior Senator – Jack Reed (D)

1996: Jack Reed (D) 63%, Nancy Mayer (R) 35%
2002: Sen. Jack Reed (D) 78%, Robert Tingle (R) 22%
2008: Sen. Jack Reed (D) 73%, Robert Tingle (R) 27%

Not that it really matters, but it was odd to see Reed’s margin dip by five points from six years earlier against the same hopeless opponent in a much better Democratic environment. At this pace, Tingle should defeat Reed 52-48 in 2038.

Junior Senator – Sheldon Whitehouse (D)

1994: Sen. John Chafee (R) 64%, Linda Kushner (D) 36%
2000: Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R) 57%, Robert A. Weygand (D) 41%
2006: Sheldon Whitehouse (D) 54%, Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R) 46%

Rhode Island is not in the habit of ousting incumbent Democratic Senators. Whitehouse can hold this seat as long as he wants it.

House 1 – Patrick Kennedy (D)

2004: Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D) 64%, David Rogers (R) 36%
2006: Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D) 69%, Jonathan Scott (R) 23%
2008: Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D) 69%, Jonathan Scott (R) 24%

Kennedy is a jerk with a capital J, but that doesn’t affect his electoral prospects.

House 2 – Jim Langevin (D)

2004: Rep. Jim Langevin (D) 75%, Chuck Barton (R) 21%
2006: Rep. Jim Langevin (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. Jim Langevin (D) 70%, Mark Zaccaria (R) 30%

Langevin, paralyzed from the waist down as a teenager, is an inspirational story. He is obviously safe here.