State of the Day - South Carolina

The Palmetto State encapsulates the political history of the Deep South. For a century the most Democratic of states, South Carolina is now among the more Republican of states. Blacks give the Democrats a sizable base, but they have not consistently been able to cut into socially conservative whites enough to win major elections. Thus, like Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, and Georgia, politics plays out on racial lines. To win statewide, Democrats need white conservatives, and even that has not been enough this decade.

Senator Jim DeMint should easily win reelection and none of the House seats look interesting. South Carolina politics should center around the battle to replace Republican Governor Mark Sanford. Democrats are game, but they probably won’t be able to bring enough to the table to claim a successful 2010 in South Carolina.


President – 8 Electoral Votes

2000: George Bush (R) 57%, Al Gore (D) 41%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 58%, John Kerry (R) 41%
2008: John McCain (R) 54%, Barack Obama (D) 45%

As predicted, the President could not turn out near enough blacks to make South Carolina even remotely interesting. He will need to maintain approval ratings in the high 60’s to even think about doing so in 2012.

Governor – Mark Sanford (R)

1998: Jim Hodges (D) 53%, Gov. David Beasley (R) 45%
2002: Mark Sanford (R) 53%, Gov. Jim Hodges (D) 47%
2006: Gov. Mark Sanford (R) 55%, Tommy Moore (D) 45%

Sanford cannot run for reelection. Republicans seem to have an advantage in replacing him. Not only does the state favor the GOP, but the party has two potentially strong candidates in Representative Gresham Barrett and Attorney General Henry McMaster. For Democrats, State Senators Robert Ford and Vincent Sheheen have already announced their candidacies. Other Democratic possibilities include Joe Erwin (
a potential self-funder) and State Representatives Henry Ott and James Smith. Any of this group would start out as pretty heavy underdogs.

Senior Senator – Lindsey Graham (R)

1996: Sen. Strom Thurmond (R) 53%, Elliott Close (D) 44%
2002: Lindsey Graham (R) 54%, Alex Sanders (D) 44%
2008: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) 57%, Bob Conley (D) 42%

Admit it. There is something strange about the relationship between Graham and John McCain.

Junior Senator – Jim DeMint (R)

1992: Sen. Ernest Hollings (D) 50%, Thomas Hartnett (R) 47%
1998: Sen. Ernest Hollings (D) 53%, Bob Inglis (R) 46%
2004: Jim DeMint (R) 54%, Inez Tenenbaum (D) 44%

DeMint is likely to get basically a free pass in 2010.

House 1 – Henry Brown (R)

2004: Rep. Henry Brown (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Henry Brown (R) 60%, Randy Maatta (D) 38%
2008: Rep. Henry Brown (R) 52%, Linda Ketner (D) 48%

Brown’s 2008 performance was pretty poor in a heavily Republican district. The increased black turnout probably hurt him, and I cannot imagine the Democrats ever winning this seat. Even so, Brown should expect a sentient challenger in 2010.

House 2 – Joe Wilson (R)

2004: Rep. Joe Wilson (R) 65%, Michael Ellisor (D) 33%
2006: Rep. Joe Wilson (R) 63%, Michael Ellisor (D) 37%
2008: Rep. Joe Wilson (R) 54%, Robert Miller (D) 46%

Considering this strip of land from Columbia to Hilton Head isn’t hopeless for Democrats (though it is tough), Wilson turned in a much better result that Henry Brown in the First District. He is likely safe.

House 3 – Gresham Barrett (R)

2004: Rep. Gresham Barrett (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Gresham Barrett (R) 63%, Lee Ballenger (D) 37%
2008: Rep. Gresham Barrett (R) 65%, Jane Ballard Dyer (D) 35%

This seat is out of reach for Democrats.

House 4 – Bob Inglis (R)

2004: Bob Inglis (R) 70%, Brandon Brown (D) 29%
2006: Rep. Bob Inglis (R) 64%, William Griffith (D) 32%
2008: Rep. Bob Inglis (R) 60%, Paul Corden (D) 37%

Inglis has an announced primary challenger but will never see a threat from Democrats. Unlike his first tenure in the House (1993-1999), Inglis has not term-limited himself this time.

House 5 – John Spratt (D)

2004: Rep. John Spratt (D) 63%, Albert Spencer (R) 37%
2006: Rep. John Spratt (D) 57%, Ralph Norman (R) 43%
2008: Rep. John Spratt (D) 62%, Albert F. Spencer (R) 37%

This Northern South Carolina district leans Republican enough where Spratt will always be endangered in a Republican wave. Othewise, he’s fine and will remain favored.

House 6 – James Clyburn (D)

2004: Rep. James Clyburn (D) 67%, Gary McLeod (R) 31%
2006: Rep. James Clyburn (D) 64%, Gary McLeod (R) 34%
2008: Rep. James Clyburn (D) 68%, Nancy Harrelson (R) 32%

This is a black majority district. The Majority Whip is permanently and utterly safe.