State of the Day - South Dakota

The Coyote State on balance is pretty conservative, with perhaps a strain of economic populism. However, personal politics has always been more important here than ideology or party identification. The result is that generally have the upper here (and dominate Presidential races), talented Democrats can succeed. In recent years, Democrats Tim Johnson and Tom Daschle have had outstanding Senate careers, and Representative Stephanie Herseth Sandlin has entrenched herself in the House.

The formula shows no signs of changing. Republican Governor Mike Rounds faces term limits in 2010. Herseth Sandlin may run for his job, and she’d be a good candidate, but she would leave behind an extremely vulnerable House seat. Republican Senator John Thune, who also has a good personal connection with South Dakotans, should win reelection easily.


President - 3 Electoral Votes

2000: George Bush (R) 60%, Al Gore (D) 38%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 60%, John Kerry (D) 38%
2008: John McCain (R) 53%, Barack Obama (D) 45%

The President did better here than either Al Gore or John Kerry, hardly a shock given that he ran much better nationally. He still did not come all that close, and it would take a historic landslide to color South Dakota blue in 2012.

Governor - Mike Rounds (R)

1998: Gov. Bill Janklow (R) 64%, Bernie Hunhoff (D) 33%
2002: Mike Rounds (R) 57%, Jim Abbott (D) 42%
2006: Gov. Mike Rounds (R) 62%, Jack Billion (D) 36%

Rounds cannot run for reelection. Barring an established Democrat running, the Republican primary should be determinative. Lieutenant Governor Dennis Daugaard, State Senator Dave Knudson, and Brookings Mayor Scott Munsterman have already announced their candidacy for the GOP nomination. At this early juncture Daugaard and Knudson are the apparent leaders, with Daugaard having an edge in name recognition.

Senior Senator - Tim Johnson (D)

1996: Tim Johnson (D) 51%, Sen. Larry Pressler (R) 49%
2002: Sen. Tim Johnson (D) 50%, John Thune (R) 50%
2008: Sen. Tim Johnson (D) 62%, Joel Dykstra (R) 38%

Johnson got a free pass in 2008 as he recovered from a near fatal blood vessel rupture in the brain. He will always be vulnerable to a strong challenge, but he has done enough to have an edge.

Junior Senator - John Thune (R)

1992: Sen. Tom Daschle (D) 65%, Charlene Haar (R) 33%
1998: Sen. Tom Daschle (D) 62%, Ron Schmidt (R) 36%
2004: John Thune (R) 51%, Sen. Tom Daschle (D) 49%

Thune should be safe for 2010. He has been mentioned as a possible Presidential candidate, and he certainly looks like one.

House At-Large - Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D)

2004: Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) 53%, Larry Diedrich (R) 46%
2006: Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) 69%, Bruce Whalen (R) 29%
2008: Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) 68%, Chris Lien (R) 32%

Herseth Sandlin is safe against all but the strongest challengers. Even in a worst case scenario for her I think she now has enough strength to win.