State of the Day - Utah

The Beehive State is probably the most consistently and heavily Republican state in the country. It hasn't voted for a Democrat for President since 1964, and then only barely went for Lyndon Johnson in his landslide. Mormons, who constitute a large amount of the electorate here, tend to be quite socially conservative and financially astute. This leads to a natural affinity for Republicans. With the exception of Democratic Representative Jim Matheson, who is a minor miracle despite several advantages, Democrats are a seriously weak opposition here.

Republicans will continue to dominate in 2010. One other curiosity: There's a possibility that Utah could pick up a seat in the House of Representatives as part of a deal made with Democrats to seat a representative from the District of Columbia.

President – 5 Electoral Votes

2000: George Bush (R) 67%, Al Gore (D) 26%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 72%, John Kerry (D) 26%
2008: John McCain (R) 63%, Barack Obama (D) 34%

It is hard to envision any circumstance under which any Democrat could win Utah.

Governor – Jon Huntsman (R)

2000: Gov. Michael Leavitt (R) 56%, Bill Orton (D) 43%
2004: Jon Huntsman (R) 58%, Scott Matheson (D) 41%
2008: Jon Huntsman (R) 78%, Bob Springmeyer (D) 20%

Not only is Utah heavily Republican, but Governor Huntsman is extremely popular. Four years is a long time, but Hunstman would likely win a large blowout if he runs again in 2012.

Senior Senator – Orrin Hatch (R)

1994: Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) 69%, Patrick Shea (D) 28%
2000: Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) 66%, Scott N. Howell (D) 32%
2006: Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) 63%, Pete Ashdown (D) 31%

Despite occasional rumblings of a primary challenge, Senator Hatch is an institution in Utah and will keep this seat as long as he wants it. Representative Jim Matheson would be the best Democratic candidate. Pete Ashdown and Jan Graham are potential sacrificial lambs.

Junior Senator – Robert Bennett (R)

1992: Robert Bennett (R) 55%, Wayne Owens (D) 40%
1998: Sen. Robert Bennett (R) 64%, Scott Leckman (D) 33%
2004: Sen. Robert Bennett (R) 69%, Paul Van Dam (D) 28%

Robert Bennett could face a primary challenge from David Leavitt, the former Juab County attorney who prosecuted polygamist Thomas Green. Leavitt, the brother of former Utah Govenor Mike Leavitt, has expressed interest in running. Despite this potential challenge, Utah is not in the habit of ousting incumbent Republican Senators. Moreover, Bennett has not done anything that would make him vulnerable to a primary challenge. Bennett should be safe for another term in 2010.

House 1 – Rob Bishop (R)

2004: Rep. Rob Bishop (R) 68%, Steve Thompson (D) 29%
2006: Rep. Rob Bishop (R) 63%, Steven Olsen (D) 32%
2008: Rep. Rob Bishop (R) 65%, Morgan Bowen (D) 30%

This is barren territory for Democrats. They stand little chance against Bishop.

House 2 – Jim Matheson (D)

2002: Rep. Jim Matheson (D) 49%, John Swallow (R) 49%
2004: Rep. Jim Matheson (D) 55%, John Swallow (R) 43%
2006: Rep. Jim Matheson (D) 63%, Bill Dew (R) 35%

This is the "Democratic" seat in Utah, but it should still not be electing Democrats to the House. Matheson benefited from an outrageously inept Republican incumbent, some good fortune, a great Utah name, a moderate record, and obvious talent. Matheson will face serious trouble against a good Republican in a good Republican year, but right now he looks to be a favorite for 2010.

House 3 – Jason Chaffetz (R)

2004: Rep. Chris Cannon (R) 63%, Beau Babka (D) 33%
2006: Rep. Chris Cannon (R) 58%, Christian Burridge (D) 32%
2008: Jason Chaffetz (R) 66%, Bennion Spencer (D) 28%

The relatively moderate Cannon lost his primary to decidedly unmoderate Jason Chaffetz, which seems appropriate in this overwhelmingly Republican district. Chaffetz will have no problem with whatever underfuned and relatively unknown Democrat runs against him in 2010.