State of the Day - Vermont

It's hard to believe that the Green Mountain State was once the most Republican in the nation, never voting for Franklin Roosevelt. Now, it has become quite Democratic. Vermont has become a haven for cultural liberals. Republicans have had, in the words of unsuccessful 2000 gubernatorial nominee Ruth Dwyer, "to accept that people just don't agree with us on these issues." Gun control is not popular here, and Republican Governor Jim Douglas has had success with an electorate that seems tired of taxes. Nevertheless, the state has routinely elected a Socialist to statewide office and is a Democratic haven.

2010 will be a relatively quiet year for Vermont.

President – 3 Electoral Votes

2000: Al Gore (D) 51%, George Bush (R) 41%
2004: John Kerry (D) 59%, Pres. George Bush (R) 39%
2008: Barack Obama (D) 67%, John McCain (R) 30%

Vermont was President Obama's 2nd best state (behind Hawaii and the District of Columbia). It's hard to believe that George W. Bush only lost this state by 10 points almost eight years ago. The state is Democratic and trending more so. It has a large number of highly educated, antiwar liberals. Quite frankly, this state is absolutely awful for national Republicans. It would be virtually impossible for any Republican to win here at the Presidential level.

Governor – Jim Douglas (R)

2004: Gov. Jim Douglas (R) 59%, Peter Clavelle (D) 38%
2006: Gov. Jim Douglas (R) 57%, Scudder Parker (D) 41%
2008: Gov. Jim Douglas (R) 53%, Anthony Pollina (I) 21%, Gaye Symington (D) 21%

Governor Douglas should be a favorite if he runs again in two years. While Republicans are rare in Vermont these days, Lynch has managed to carve a good image for the state, where he remains popular. Given the division among the liberal candidates, the only question in 2008 was whether Lynch would reach 50% (in that case, the state legislature chooses a winner). If the Democrats can unify behind a strong candidate, they could make things difficult for Douglas.

Senior Senator – Patrick Leahy (D)

1992: Sen. Patrick Leahy (D) 54%, Jim Douglas (R) 43%
1998: Sen. Patrick Leahy (D) 72%, Fred H. Tuttle (R) 22%
2004: Sen. Patrick Leahy (D) 71%, Jack McMullen (R) 25%

Senator Leahy is not going anywhere. He will continue to be around, much to the consternation of Republicans. Governor Jim Douglas is the only potential respectable candidate, and he seems unlikely to run.

Junior Senator – Bernie Sanders (D)*

1994: Sen. James Jeffords (R) 50%, Jan Backus (D) 41%
2000: Sen. James Jeffords (R) 66%, Ed Flanagan (D) 25%
2006: Bernie Sanders (D)* 65%, Richard Tarrant (R) 32%

Senator Sanders is a self-identified Socialist, which tells you all you need to know about Vermont. He would probably beat Governor Jim Douglas, and would crush anybody else.

House At Large – Peter Welch (D)

2004: Rep. Bernie Sanders (D)* 67%, Greg Parke (R) 24%
2006: Peter Welch (D) 53%, Martha Rainville (R) 45%
2008: Rep. Peter Welch (D) 83.2%, Mike Bethel (I) 4.8%

It would take a seriously Republican year to elect a GOP House member in solidly blue Vermont.

*Bernie Sanders is technically an Independent. However, he caucuses with Democrats, has a very liberal voting record, and is for all practical purposes a Democrat. The Democrats don’t even run people against him. Sanders is considered a Democrat for the purposes in this column.