State Of The Day - Virginia

After voting for every Republican for President since 1964, Virginia gave its electoral votes to Barack Obama in 2008. Obama's win was the latest in a series of successes for Virginia Democrats. While Virginia is by no means a solid "blue" state, President Obama proved that Democrats can win there fairly decisively under the right circumstances. Demographic trends have certainly helped Democrats in the state, especially in the metropolitan Washington DC suburbs. Over the past decade, Northern Virginia has filled rapidly with government employees and high income private sector workers. This population has made Northern Virginia quite Democratic. Northern Virginia is balanced by the rest of the state, which tends to be Republican.

Virginia's Democrats bottomed out in 1999-2000, when they lost the state legislature and Republican George Allen knocked off Democratic Senator Charles Robb. However, since then, the Democrats have made quite a comeback. It began in 2001 with Mark Warner winning the Governor's Mansion. Taking advantage of unpopular Republican Governor Jim Gilmore, Warner assiduously courted rural Virginia and won a rather broad based, if not sweeping victory. As Governor, Warner completely divided Virginia Republicans over a tax reform plan, creating a breach between conservatives and moderates that exists to this day. That division helped Tim Kaine essentially duplicate Warner’s victory in 2005 and Democrats capture the State Senate in 2007.

2008 was a good year for Virginia Democrats. Mark Warner won a decisive Senate victory in his campaign against former Republican Governor Jim Gilmore and Democrats unexpectedly picked up two House seats. While Republicans have had little luck here in recent election cycles, the 2010 gubernatorial election provides Republicans a real shot of regaining the Governors' Mansion.

President – 13 Electoral Votes

2000: George Bush (R) 52%, Al Gore (D) 44%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 54%, John Kerry (D) 45%
2008: Barack Obama (D) 53%, John McCain (R) 46%

At the Presidential level, Virginia saw a sixteen point swing in just four years. 2004 saw a nine point win for President George W. Bush, whereas Sen. Barack Obama won by seven points. This rapid change reflects a slower, more gradual change that has happened over the last several years, as northern Virginia has slowly become more and more Democratic. Even though most of the state remains fairly Republican, the growing Democratic suburbs in northern Virginia mean that the state is no longer safe for Republican Presidential candidates.

President Obama won Virginia because he did substantially better than John Kerry did in 2004 among white voters. For example, President Bush won 73% of white men and 65% of white women in 2004. In 2008, John McCain only won 62% of white men and 60% of white women. This gave Obama a huge boost. Moreover, while the proportion of African-American voters was about the same as in 2004, Obama won the votes of a higher percentage of these voters than John Kerry had in 2004.

While Obama showed that a Democrat can win in Virginia, it's no sure thing in future election cycles. There is no doubt that both parties will heavily focus on Virginia in 2012. For Republicans, the state is essential to reaching 270 electoral votes. For Democrats, winning in Virginia would help to put the nail in the coffin of any Republican nominee. Virginia will be a state to watch in 2012.

Governor – Tim Kaine (D)

1997: Jim Gilmore (R) 56%, Don Beyer (D) 43%
2001: Mark Warner (D) 52%, Mark Earley (R) 47%
2005: Tim Kaine (D) 52%, Jerry Kilgore (R) 46%

Governor Kaine cannot run for reelection, as Virginia is the last state where Governors cannot succeed themselves. The Republicans have united behind former Attorney General Bob McDonnell, who recently resigned from his office to be a full time candidate.

The Democratic field is anything but settled. Three Democrats - conservative Democratic State Senator Creigh Deeds, the more liberal State Delegate Brian Moran, and former DNC chairman Terry McAuliffe will face one another in a June 9, 2009 primary. McAuliffe's biggest advantage is that he can raise enormous amounts of money, though McAuliffe's fundraising is already drawing criticisms from the other candidates. Brian Moran recently said that "We need a fighter, not a fundraiser."

A recent poll by Public Policy Polling (PPP) showed McAuliffe narrowly ahead, with 21% of the vote. Moran received 18% and Deeds received 14%. There is plenty of time for this race to develop, and it already seems like it could get nasty. Will Democrats choose a nominee without in-fighting that will greatly hurt their chances in November? That remains to be seen.

Right now, the overall race looks like a toss up. McAuliffe's strength is his fundraising, but it could prompt a backlash. State Democrats may prefer to see one of their own receive the nomination. Republicans may have an edge here, with a unified party. National Republicans also realize that winning this race is crucial and they will surely pour resources into this race. McDonnell has already received visits from prominent Republicans and this will likely continue through November.

Senior Senator – John Warner (R)

1996: Sen. John Warner (R) 52%, Mark Warner (D) 47%
2002: Sen. John Warner (R) unopposed
2008: Mark Warner (D) 65%, James Gilmore (R) 34%

This race was never a contest. Mark Warner totally destroyed former Republican Governor James Gilmore, whose political career is likely over. Warner's popularity and ability to win in a fairly conservative state have always led political commentators to float his name as a potential President candidate. Will Warner continue to be a moderate in the Senate? We shall see, but for now, it looks like Warner will be a strong candidate for re-election in 2014.

Junior Senator – Jim Webb (D)

1994: Sen. Charles S. Robb (D) 46%, Oliver North (R) 43%
2000: George Allen (R) 52%, Sen. Charles S. Robb (D) 48%
2006: Jim Webb (D) 50%, Sen. George Allen (R) 49%

Senator Webb has one advantage when he runs for reelection in 2012 - demographic trends have made the state more Democratic. In 2008, Virginia showed that it can elect Democrats by decent margins - even liberal ones - with the election of Barack Obama. At the same time, Webb should have a major challenge. There is also a serious possibility that liberals will be tired of Webb by 2012, given his social conservatism and interesting ideas on foreign policy. For example, Webb has recently come out in favor of offshore drilling for natural gas, something his more liberal colleagues have opposed. Webb may be a slight favorite as of now, but he will almost certainly face a major challenge. In many ways, Webb's 2012 fate could be tied to the success or failure of President Obama.

House 1 – Rob Wittman (R)

2004: Rep. Jo Ann Davis (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Jo Ann Davis (R) 63%, Shawn O’Donnell (D) 35%
2007 special: Rob Wittman (R) 61%, Philip Forgit (D) 37%
2008: Rep. Rob Wittman (R) 57%, Bill Day, Jr. (D) 42%

Pretty much everything would need to go right for Democrats to win this seat. Despite Democratic advantages in 2008, they still did not come close to unseating Wittman.

House 2 – Thelma Drake (R)

2004: Thelma Drake (R) 55%, David Ashe (D) 45%
2006: Rep. Thelma Drake (R) 51%, Phil Kellam (D) 48%
2008: Glenn Nye (D) 52%, Rep. Thelma Drake (R) 48%

Glenn Nye managed to win an upset in this district, defeating the incumbent Republican, Thelma Drake. Given her survival against a strong challenge in 2006, it looked like Drake would hang on for another victory. What happened? Nye surely benefited from having President Barack Obama at the top of the ticket. Obama's fairly large win in the state likely gave Nye the nudge he needed to defeat Drake.

Nye will almost certainly face a strong challenge here in 2012. We currently rate this as a Toss Up that leans toward the Republican challenger.

House 3 – Bobby Scott (D)

2002: Rep. Bobby Scott (D) unopposed
2004: Rep. Bobby Scott (D) 69%, Winsome Sears (R) 31%
2006: Rep. Bobby Scott (D) unopposed

This African-American majority district poses no threat to Democrats.

House 4 – Randy Forbes (R)

2004: Rep. Randy Forbes (R) 64%, Jonathan Menefee (D) 35%
2006: Rep. Randy Forbes (R) unopposed
2008: Rep. Randy Forbes (R) 60%, Andrea Miller (D) 40%

This is a Republican leaning seat that should re-elect Forbes in 2010.

House 5 – Virgil Goode (R)

2004: Rep. Virgil Goode (R) 64%, Al Weed (D) 36%
2006: Rep. Virgil Goode (R) 59%, Al Weed (D) 40%
2008: Tom Perriello (D) 50.1%, Rep. Virgil Goode (R) 49.9%

This is the second seat that Democrats unexpectedly picked up in 2008. This is a Republican leaning Southern Virginia seat, which includes Charlottesville, Bedford, South Boston, Martinsville, and Danville.

This was one of the closest House races in the country in 2008. Goode initially refused to concede, but eventually realized could not overcome Perriello's 700+ vote lead. Goode hurt himself by sticking his foot in his mouth and making stupid comments (see his comments about Muslim Rep. Keith Ellison). Perriello surely benefited from a good performance by President Obama in this district, as well.

This district should be a prime target for Republicans in 2010. A solid Republican candidate would have an excellent chance of retaking this seat. For now, we rate this as a toss up that leans toward a Republican takeover.

House 6 – Bob Goodlatte (R)

2004: Rep. Bob Goodlatte (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Bob Goodlatte (R) unopposed
2008: Rep. Bob Goodlatte (R) 62%, Sam Rasoul (D) 37%

Goodlatte is very safe in this district.

House 7 – Eric Cantor (R)

2004: Rep. Eric Cantor (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Eric Cantor (R) 64%, James Nachman (D) 34%
2008: Rep. Eric Cantor (R) 63%, Anita Hartke (D) 37%

Cantor, a rising GOP star, cruised to victory against Democrat Anita Hartke in this overwhelmingly Republican district. Cantor received much credit for uniting House Republicans against President Obama's stimulus bill. We will likely be seeing a lot more of Cantor in the future.

House 8 – Jim Moran (D)

2004: Rep. Jim Moran (D) 60%, Lisa Marie Cheney (R) 37%
2006: Rep. Jim Moran (D) 66%, Tom O’Donoghue (R) 31%
2008: Rep. Jim Moran (D) 68%, Mark Ellmore (R) 30%

This has seat has become out of reach to Republicans, especially since Moran has learned to avoid controversy. As you can see, the trends are moving in the wrong direction for the GOP.

House 9 – Rick Boucher (D)

2004: Rep. Rick Boucher (D) 59%, Kevin Triplett (R) 39%
2006: Rep. Rick Boucher (D) 68%, Charles Carrico (R) 32%
2008: Rep. Rick Boucher (D) unopposed

This is a tough district for Democrats, but Boucher has entrenched himself locally. Will Republicans even bother to field a candidate in 2010? In an anti-Democratic year, the Republicans would have a shot of unseating Boucher. For now, he is a solid favorite for 2010.

House 10 – Frank Wolf (R)

2004: Rep. Frank Wolf (R) 64%, James Socas (D) 36%
2006: Rep. Frank Wolf (R) 57%, Judy Feder (D) 41%
2008: Rep. Frank Wolf (R) 59%, Judy Feder (D) 39%

The Republican Wolf is pretty moderate and locally popular. Feder was a credible candidate and still failed to crack 40%. Wolf should have nothing to worry about.

House 11 – Tom Davis (R)

2004: Rep. Tom Davis (R) 60%, Ken Longmyer (D) 38%
2006: Rep. Tom Davis (R) 55%, Andrew Hurst (R) 44%
2008: Gerald Connolly (D) 55%, Keith Fimian (D) 43%

This Fairfax based district is quickly becoming more Democratic. Under the right circumstances, a Republican could win here, but Connolly is the odds on favorite for 2010.