State Of The Day - Washington

The Evergreen State has cycled from a heavily Democratic state that voted for Michael Dukakis in 1988, to a swing state that was very close in 2000, to a state that has trended even more Democratic than the rest of the nation over the past four years. Eastern Washington, angry with Seattle liberals and environmentalists trying to protect the spotted owl, turned violently against the Democrats in the 1990’s. However, Seattle is quite Democratic, and combined with Democratic trending Western Washington, the state is pretty Democratic on the whole.

Democrats had a good year in Washington State in 2008. The state continued its leftward trend at the Presidential level, giving Barack Obama a huge 17 point victory. Considering that the state had been considered a potential "swing state" just eight years before, one can see how far Washington has moved to the left. Democratic Governor Gregoire also won a comfortable victory over Republican Dino Rossi, a race many Republicans had hoped to win. The one bit of good news for Republicans was that in WA-8, Republican Dave Reichert managed to hang onto his seat once again. Republican Rob McKenna also won an easy re-election as the state's Attorney General.

Washington will continue to be a safe state for Democrats. 2010 will be a quiet year for Washington state, with Patty Murray's Senate seat being the most significant office at stake.

President – 11 Electoral Votes

2000: Al Gore (D) 50%, George Bush (R) 45%
2004: John Kerry (D) 53%, Pres. George Bush (R) 46%
2008: Barack Obama (D) 57%, John McCain (R) 40%

Washington state continued its trend away from the Republican Party at the national level in 2008. In many ways, Barack Obama was an ideal candidate for the state. He had immense appeal among the state's many young, liberal and environmentally oriented voters in Seattle. Moreover, President Bush's policies in Iraq and social conservatism were particularly unpopular here.

While Washington state was often referred to as a "battleground state" in 2000, and even in 2004, there was never any doubt that Barack Obama would have a decisive win here in November. Even if the President's popularity is waning by 2012, he should still come out ahead in Washington state.

Governor – Christine Gregoire (D)

2000: Gov. Gary Locke (D) 58%, John Eric Carlson (R) 40%
2004: Christine Gregoire (D) 49%, Dino Rossi (R) 49%
2008: Gov. Christine Gregoire (D) 53%, Dino Rossi (R) 47%

After Democratic Governor Gregoire won in 2004 by only 129 votes after a disputed recount process, many Republicans were hopeful that a rematch in 2008 would yield a different result. All along, this was a close race, but Gregoire prevailed in the end. President Barack Obama's large victory surely helped Gregoire improve on her narrow 2004 win.

Looking toward 2012, the Democrats have a clear edge, though a Republican victory would not be impossible under the right circumstances. Attorney General Rob McKenna may be a strong candidate for Republicans.

Senior Senator – Patty Murray (D)

1992: Patty Murray (D) 54%, Rod Chandler (R) 46%
1998: Sen. Patty Murray (D) 58%, Linda Smith (R) 42%
2004: Sen. Patty Murray (D) 55%, George Nethercutt (R) 43%

Senator Murray is often underestimated, but her big win over strong opposition in 2004 indicates that she is probably invincible in this Democratic leaning state. She'll be a big favorite over her three most likely potential challengers, State Attorney General Rob McKenna and Representatives Cathy McMorris Rodgers and Dave Reichert. A recent Research 2000 poll confirmed Murray's strength against Reichert and McKenna - Murray held double digit leads over both men.

Junior Senator – Maria Cantwell (D)

1994: Sen. Slade Gorton (R) 56%, Ron Sims (D) 44%
2000: Maria Cantwell (D) 49%, Sen. Slade Gorton (R) 49%
2006: Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) 57%, Mike McGavick (R) 40%

Senator Cantwell has come a long way from winning election by 2,229 votes in 2000. Like Murray, she easily dispatched a strong challenge in 2006, and looks to be in strong shape. Barring an unforeseen turn of events, she should be secure for 2012.

House 1 – Jay Inslee (D)

2004: Rep. Jay Inslee (D) 62%, Randy Eastwood (R) 36%
2006: Rep. Jay Inslee (D) 68%, Larry Ishmael (R) 32%
2008: Rep. Jay Inslee (D) 68%, Larry Ishmael (R) 32%

Republicans would need a lot of breaks to win in this district. Inslee is in good shape for 2010.

House 2 – Rick Larsen (D)

2004: Rep. Rick Larsen (D) 64%, Suzanne Sinclair (R) 34%
2006: Rep. Rick Larsen (D) 64%, Doug Roulstone (R) 36%
2008: Rep. Rick Larsen (D) 62%, Rick Bart (R) 37%

While this district is not as solidly Democratic as Larsen's numbers might indicate, he has a good grip on the district.

House 3 – Brian Baird (D)

2004: Rep. Brian Baird (D) 62%, Thomas Crowson (R) 38%
2006: Rep. Brian Baird (D) 63%, Michael Messmore (R) 37%
2008: Rep. Brian Baird (D) 63%, Michael Delavar (R) 36%

This district mirrors the national average almost exactly, giving 48% and 50% for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 respectively. In 2008, it gave 52% to Barack Obama and 46% to John McCain. Baird has a moderate record and has become popular locally. He'll be tough to knock off. Republicans will have to do better than recent challengers if they want a shot here.

House 4 – Doc Hastings (R)

2004: Rep. Doc Hastings (R) 63%, Sandy Matheson (D) 37%
2006: Rep. Doc Hastings (R) 60%, Richard Wright (D) 40%
2008: Rep. Doc Hastings (R) 63%, George Fearing (D) 37%

This safe Republican district shows that Republicans can survive in blue states.

House 5 – Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R)

2004: Cathy McMorris (R) 60%, Don Barbieri (D) 40%
2006: Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) 56%, Peter Goldmark (D) 44%
2008: Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) 65%, Mark Mays (D) 35%

This is another very tough district for Democrats.

House 6 – Norm Dicks (D)

2004: Rep. Norm Dicks (D) 69%, Doug Cloud (R) 31%
2006: Rep. Norm Dicks (D) 71%, Doug Cloud (R) 29%
2006: Rep. Norm Dicks (D) 67%, Doug Cloud (R) 33%

Dicks is firmly entrenched in this Democratic leaning seat.

House 7 – Jim McDermott (D)

2004: Rep. Jim McDermott (D) 81%, Carol Cassady (R) 19%
2006: Rep. Jim McDermott (D) 79%, Steve Beren (R) 16%
2006: Rep. Jim McDermott (D) 87%, Steve Beren (R) 16%

This is one of the most Democratic seats in the nation, which explains the presence of someone as liberal as McDermott.

House 8 – Dave Reichert (R)

2004: Rep. Dave Reichert (R) 52%, Dave Ross (D) 47%
2006: Rep. Dave Reichert (R) 51%, Darcy Burner (D) 49%
2008: Rep. Dave Reichert (R) 53%, Darcy Burner (D) 47%

Reichert, a former Sheriff who helped apprehend Gary Ridgway, has one of the coolest backgrounds in Congress. This probably helped him survive in this Bellevue based suburban Seattle swing seat in 2006 and 2008.

This district has trended toward the Democrats and gave Barack Obama a healthy win. However, David Reichert has repeatedly fended off difficult challengers. Since Reichert weathered the GOP storms of 2006 and 2008, one has to give him the edge for 2010. If Reichert were to challenge Patty Murray for her Senate seat, WA-8 would be a prime pickup opportunity for House Democrats.

House 9 – Adam Smith (D)

2004: Rep. Adam Smith (D) 63%, Paul Lord (R) 34%
2006: Rep. Adam Smith (D) 66%, Steven Cofchin (R) 34%
2006: Rep. Adam Smith (D) 66%, James Postma (D) 54%

Smith should have an easy time in this Democratic leaning district.