State of the Day - West Virginia

For most of the 20th Century, the Mountain State was one of the most Democratic in the nation. It only voted Republican for President in huge landslides, and it did not desert Michael Dukakis in 1988. It is still by and large a Democratic state, and Democrats dominate state politics. However, George W. Bush carried West Virginia twice, and it has become evident that West Virginians will not vote for liberal national Democrats with whom they cannot identify. George W. Bush's social conservatism and charm had no problem getting past perceived urban elite liberals Al Gore and John Kerry. Democrats easily won the Governor’s Mansion even as Bush won here easily.

2008 provided an excellent example of the Democrats that can be successful in West Virgnia. Barack Obama struggled in a state that lacked the demographic groups that formed his "base" - youthful voters, African Americans and "latte liberals." Meanwhile, socially conservative Democratic Governor Joe Manchin easily won. As long as Democrats nominate liberals like Barack Obama, they are going to have trouble winning here at the Presidential level.

President – 5 Electoral Votes

2000: George Bush (R) 52%, Al Gore (D) 46%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 56%, John Kerry (D) 43%
2004: John McCain (R) 56%, Barack Obama (D) 43%

If Democrats ever nominated a Southerner, social moderate, or anyone with outsized blue collar appeal, you would see that West Virginia is still, at heart, a Democratic state. Barack Obama is none of the above, and that is why he struggled in the Democratic primary here and lost to John McCain by 13 points. If anything, Obama's plans to enact a cap and trade system for carbon emissions will probably put West Virginia even further out of reach for 2012.

Governor – Joe Manchin (D)

2000: Robert Wise (D) 50%, Gov. Cecil H. Underwood (R) 47%
2004: Joe Manchin (D) 64%, Monty Warner (R) 34%
2008: Joe Manchin (D) 70%, Russ Weeks (R) 26%

Manchin is incredibly popular, even after revelations West Virginia University gave his daughter a degree she did not earn. Manchin is quite conservative, and may be more popular among non-Democrats than within his own party. At the state level, Democrats clearly dominate in West Virginia.

Senior Senator – Robert Byrd (D)

1994: Sen. Robert Byrd (D) 69%, Stan Klos (R) 31%
2000: Sen. Robert Byrd (D) 78%, David T. Gallaher (R) 20%
2006: Sen. Robert Byrd (D) 64%, John Raese (R) 34%

The ninety year old Senator Byrd says he will continue "'til this old body drops." and that probably means he'll stay in the Senate as long as he's alive. Byrd is more than an institution in West Virginia, he is a way of life. West Virginia's voters will surely indulge him as he turns into Strom Thurmond. Whether Byrd runs or not, the best Republican candidate would be Representative Shelley Moore Capito.

Junior Senator – Jay Rockefeller (D)

1996: Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D) 77%, Betty A. Burks (R) 23%
2002: Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D) 63%, Jay Wofle (R) 37%
2008: Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D) 64%, Jay Wofle (R) 36%

Rockefeller is the exception that proves the rule about "down home West Virginia Democrats." Actually, despite his name, Rockefeller has an affable persona that connects with West Virginia voters.

House 1 – Alan Mollohan (D)

2004: Rep. Alan Mollohan (D) 68%, Alan Parks (R) 32%
2006: Rep. Alan Mollohan (D) 64%, Chris Wakim (R) 36%
2008: Rep. Alan Mollohan (D) unopposed

Despite a scandal involving using his Appropriations perch to enrich his real estate holdings and a district that leans Republican, Mollohan was unopposed in 2008. Can you tell that the West Virginia Republican party is pretty weak?

House 2 – Shelley Moore Capito (R)

2004: Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) 57%, Erik Wells (D) 41%
2006: Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) 57%, Mike Callaghan (D) 43%
2006: Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) 57%, Anne Barth (D) 43%

In 2006 and 2008, Demorats targeted Capito, without success. Both times Democrats failed to get their preferred candidate, but Capito has displayed an ability to survive despite the toxic environment for her party that existed in 2006 and 2008. Democrats will likely target Capito again, but she is a favorite to win re-election.

House 3 – Nick Rahall (D)

2004: Rep. Nick Rahall (D) 65%, Rick Snuffer (R) 35%
2006: Rep. Nick Rahall (D) 69%, Kim Wolfe (R) 31%
2008: Rep. Nick Rahall (D) 67%, Gary Gearheart (R) 33%

This district has tended to vote right at the national average in Presidential elections, though it seems to have given McCain a sizeable win in November. Rahall, a blue collar entrenched Democrat, will have no problem winning here.