State of the Day - Wisconsin

After a long hiatus, we are planning to try to get our State of the Day column going once again. Because of work commitments, the column may not be daily, but we hope to bring you a few columns a week, if possible.

The Badger State has a long history of progressive politics. Yet, in recent years it has been a surprisingly competitive state. Republican Tommy Thompson won four straight gubernatorial races, serving from 1987-2001. George W. Bush lost Wisconsin twice, but it was very close in both elections. Since, Wisconsin has definitely trended Democratic. Democratic Governor Jim Doyle won reelection in 2006 despite low popularity and Democrats picked up a House seat in the 2006 wave.

Democrats - particularly President Barack Obama - did very well here in 2008. President Barack Obama's campaign message of change and reform had outsized appeal to Wisconsin’s tradition of LaFollette style progressive reform. The unpopularity of President Bush's Iraq policies also boosted Obama's wide winning margin. Has Wisconsin permanently shifted to the left, or does the shift have more to do with the circumstances surrounding the last two election cycles? That remains to be seen, but it looks like the Democrats' edge in the state has grown.

President – 10 Electoral Votes

2000: Al Gore (D) 48%, George Bush (R) 48%
2004: John Kerry (D) 50%, Pres. George Bush (R) 49%
2008: Barack Obama (D) 56%, John McCain (R) 42%

Wisconsin voted within a point of the national average in 1996, 2000, and 2004. That trend stopped in 2008, when Barack Obama won by five points more than the national average. It's hard to believe that this state went from being the closest state in 2004 to being a huge blowout for Barack Obama. Barack Obama seemed to have special appeal in Wisconsin, thus it's not surprising to see that he did so well here. Much can happen in three years, but right now, it seems like Obama should have a clear edge here in 2012.

Governor – James Doyle (D)

1998: Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) 60%, Ed Garvey (D) 39%
2002: James Doyle (D) 45%, Gov. Scott McCallum (R) 41%
2006: Gov. James Doyle (D) 53%, Mark Green (R) 45%

Governor Doyle has struggled with budget deficits in his entire tenure, and has never really won over the state. He benefited from the huge Democratic year in 2006, but his approval rating is very low. A recent SurveyUSA poll shows that only 35% of voters approve of Doyle, whereas 59% disapprove. Those are hard numbers for any incumbent to overcome.

While Doyle has continued to raise money, he is in serious trouble at this point. Lieutenant Governor Barbara Lawton has said she will run if Doyle opts to retire. Given Doyle's low approval ratings, a good Republican in a better Republican climate could knock him off. For the GOP, the two big names in the race are Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker and former Representative Mark Neumann. Appleton businessman Mark Todd has also registered to run. A poll taken in March showed Doyle with a lead over Walker and Neumann, but Doyle remains very weak.

One wildcard? Former Governor Tommy Thompson has expressed interest in possibly running in 2010 if other candidates fail to step up to the plate.

Given Doyle's low approval ratings, it seems like at this early stage, Republicans have an edge.

Senior Senator – Herb Kohl (D)

1994: Sen. Herb Kohl (D) 58%, Robert Welch (R) 41%
2000: Sen. Herb Kohl (D) 62%, John Gillespie (R) 37%
2006: Sen. Herb Kohl (D) 67%, Robert Lorge (R) 29%

Senator Kohl is popular, noncontroversial, and very rich. All of this ensures his continued reelections.

Junior Senator – Russell Feingold (D)

1992: Russell Feingold (D) 53%, Sen. Bob Kasten (R) 46%
1998: Sen. Russell Feingold (D) 51%, Mark W. Neumann (R) 48%
2004: Sen. Russell Feingold (D) 55%, Tim Michels (R) 44%

Senator Feingold looks to be in strong shape. His strongest opponent would undoubtedly be Tommy Thompson. Representatives Paul Ryan and Jim Sensenbrenner might also be strong candidates. In any event, Feingold is a favorite.

House 1 – Paul Ryan (R)

2002: Rep. Paul Ryan (R) 67%, Jeffrey Thomas (D) 31%
2004: Rep. Paul Ryan (R) 65%, Jeffrey Thomas (D) 33%
2006: Rep. Paul Ryan (R) 63%, Jeffrey Thomas (D) 37%
2008: Rep. Paul Ryan (R) 64%, Marge Krupp (D) 35%

Ryan is considered a rising GOP star, and he has locked down this swing district even against two Democratic waves. Some have mentioned Ryan as a potential Senate candidate in 2012, should Sen. Kohl decide to retire.

House 2 – Tammy Baldwin (D)

2004: Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D) 63%, Dave Magnum (R) 37%
2006: Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D) 63%, Dave Magnum (R) 37%
2008: Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D) 69%, Peter Theron (R) 31%

This is a safe Democratic district.

House 3 – Ron Kind (D)

2004: Rep. Ron Kind (D) 56%, Dale Schultz (R) 43%
2006: Rep. Ron Kind (D) 65%, Paul Nelson (R) 35%
2008: Rep. Ron Kind (D) 63%, Paul Stark (R) 34%

Kind has performed solidly in this district and will likely continue to do so.

House 4 – Gwen Moore (D)

2004: Gwen Moore (D) 70%, Gerald Boyle (R) 28%
2006: Rep. Gwen Moore (D) 71%, Perfecto Rivera (R) 28%
2008: Rep. Gwen Moore (D) 88%, Michael D. LaForest (I) 12%

Moore is unopposed. Republicans have no shot here.

House 5 – Jim Sensenbrenner (R)

2004: Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner (R) 67%, Bryan Kennedy (D) 32%
2006: Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner (R) 62%, Bryan Kennedy (D) 36%
2008: Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner (R) 80%, Robert Raymond (I) 20%

Sensenbrenner faced no opposition in 2008. It doesn't really matter if Democrats field an opposition candidate in 2010, since Sensenbrenner will be safe as long as he continues to run in this district.

House 6 – Tom Petri (R)

2004: Rep. Tom Petri (R) 67%, Jef Hall (D) 30%
2006: Rep. Tom Petri (R) unopposed
2008: Rep. Tom Petri (R) 64%, Roger Kittelson (D) 36%

The veteran Petri is entrenched in this Republican leaning seat.

House 7 – David Obey (D)

2004: Rep. David Obey (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. David Obey (D) 62%, Nick Reid (R) 35%
2008: Rep. David Obey (D) 61%, Dan Mielke (R) 39%

As Chairman of the Appropriations Committee, Obey has no problem raising plenty of funds. Obey should be safe in 2010.

House 8 – Steve Kagen (D)

2004: Rep. Mark Green (R) 70%, Dottie Le Clair (D) 30%
2006: Steve Kagen (D) 51%, John Gard (R) 49%
2008: Rep. Steve Kagan (D) 54%, John Gard (R) 46%

Kagen won this Republican leaning Green Bay/Northeast Wisconsin seat in the 2006 wave. After coming close in 2006, Republican John Gard ran again in 2008, but the race never really panned out for him.

While Kagan is becoming more entrenched in this district, Republicans will surely come after him, as WI-8 is really the only district in the state where Republicans could gain a seat in 2010. Door County Commissioner Marc Savard will be running. Other candidates mentioned by Roll Call include state representatives Roger Roth and Phil Montgomery, Green Bay Mayor James Schmitt, and former Green Bay mayor Paul Jadin.

Kagan has an edge, but if the political environment swings back toward the GOP by 2010, he could have problems.