Wednesday, May 6, 2009

GOP Recruiting for 2010?

Recently, when I was reading some leftist blogs, I came across several posts indicating how poorly GOP recruiting was going in several districts. While it's true that the Republican Party has had recruiting problems in the last two cycles, one would expect things to improve (somewhat) by 2010. Most notably, George W. Bush is no longer President. While his lack of popularity still haunts the GOP, Democrats will no longer be able to run against Republicans by associating them with Bush.

National Review's Jim Geragthy takes a look at some positive aspects of Republican recruiting this cycle, by way of Chris Cilizza:

Chris Cillizza of the Post takes a look at recent good news in Republican recruiting for the 2010 cycle — mentioning declared or likely Senate candidates Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio in Florida, Tom Ridge in Pennsylvania, Rob Simmons in Connecticut, Rep. Mark Kirk in Illinois, and Rep. Mike Castle in Delaware, as well as declared or likely House candidates Manchester (N.H.) mayor Frank Guinta and Springfield (Ore.) mayor Sid Leiken to run against Rep. Peter Defazio.

But there’s a lot more going on on the House side.


Click through to Geraghty's post to see analysis of the House. Things are definitely looking up for the GOP on the recruiting front, but these candidates still have a tough road ahead.

There is no doubt some of these potential candidates could do well, however, some are unproven. For example, Chris Christie's success in New Jersey really tells us nothing about Christie himself. Christie could be a great candidate, but it's too early to know. His lead in the polls has more to do with Gov. Corzine's unpopular standing more than anything else. Tom Ridge would be a coup for the Republican Party in Pennsylvania, but can he win a primary against Toomey? Would his time at the Department of Homeland Security be a plus or a negative?

That said, some of the GOP recruits are definitely strong. In Illinois, Mark Kirk is probably as solid a candidate as the GOP can hope for, but Kirk's success will likely ride on whether Roland Burris is the Democratic candidate. In Ohio, Rob Portman gives the GOP a young candidate who stands a good chance against the Democratic opposition. In Delaware, Rep. Mike Castle is probably the only Republican who could win against the Democratic opposition (Beau Biden?). Gov. Charlie Christ would totally transform the Florida Senate race, though he might give conservatives headaches once he is actually in office.

Overall, the GOP definitely has reason for optimism, but it's too early to make any broad generalizations.

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