State of the Day - Alabama

Like most of the Deep South states, the Heart of Dixie has had its fair share of racially polarized politics over the past twenty years. Republicans have dominated here since George Wallace left the Governor’s Mansion for the third and final time in 1987. Blacks vote overwhelmingly for Democrats in all races. Whites vote almost as heavily for Republicans in Presidential and Senate races. Conservative Democrats can still win state races, however, and the Democrats maintain solid majority in both houses of the Legislature. 2008 was actually a pretty good year for Alabama Democrats. Barack Obama predictably lost badly, but Democrats held an open, Republican leaning House seat in North Alabama and picked up an open, heavily Republican House seat in Southeast Alabama.

It is hard to find any evidence that Alabama is undergoing any changes politically. It is difficult to see Barack Obama winning this state in 2012, and Richard Shelby looks safe for 2010. The action will come in the open gubernatorial race and the two competitive House seats that Democrats won so impressively in 2008. These races will test the appeal of conservative Democrats in Alabama.

President – 9 Electoral Votes

2000: George Bush (R) 56%, Al Gore (D) 42%
2004: George Bush (R) 62%, John Kerry (D) 37%
2008: John McCain (R) 61%, Barack Obama (D) 39%

This was a predictably racially polarized electorate in 2008. However, that is not necessarily indicative of racism, because white voters in Alabama do not vote for any national Democrats. Perhaps Obama may pick up a few points if he remains popular in 2012. However, there is no way Obama or any Democrat will carry Alabama any time soon.

Governor – Bob Riley (R)

1998: Don Siegelman (D) 58%, Gov. Fob James (R) 42%
2002: Bob Riley (R) 49%, Gov. Don Siegelman (D) 49%
2006: Gov. Bob Riley (R) 57%, Lucy Baxley (D) 42%

Governor Riley cannot run for a third term.

On the Democratic side, Representative Artur Davis has announced intentions to run. Davis is African-American, but much more moderate than most members of the Congressional Black Caucus, so he could be a serious threat to win. Other announced candidates include Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks and Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb. Davis recently released an internal poll showing him with significant leads over the other challengers.

The Republican side is likely to draw a plethora of potential challengers. Right now, announced challengers include businessmen Tim James, who lost the 2002 primary to Riley, and state representative Robert Bentley. Alabama's two-year colleges Chancellor, Bradley Byrne, has recently resigned his post and is expected to announce intentions to run for governor on May 27. Another possible candidate is former Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore (who lost the 2006 primary to Riley), who was removed as state chief justice in 2003 for refusing to comply with a federal court order to remove the 10 Commandments that Moore had placed in the State Judicial Building. Moore is expected to make a formal announcement on June 1.

While it will be a while before the governors' field sorts itself out, the Republicans definitely start with an edge.

Senior Senator – Richard Shelby (R)

1992: Sen. Richard Shelby (D) 65%, Richard Sellars (R) 33%
1998: Sen. Richard Shelby (R) 63%, Clayton Suddith (D) 37%
2004: Sen. Richard Shelby (R) 68%, Wayne Sowell (D) 32%

Senator Shelby remains highly popular and has a ton of money. In short, he can expect another non-serious challenger and an easy win in 2010.

Junior Senator – Jeff Sessions (R)

1996: Jeff Sessions (R) 52%, Roger Bedford (D) 45%
2002: Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) 59%, Susan Parker (D) 40%
2008: Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) 63%, Vivian Figures (D) 37%

Senator Sessions easily won against the outgunned Vivian Figures. As long as he stays out of trouble, he has this seat for life.

House 1 – Jo Bonner (R)

2004: Rep. Jo Bonner (R) 63%, Judy McCain Belk (D) 37%
2006: Rep. Jo Bonner (R) 68%, Vivian Beckerle (D) 32%
2008: Rep. Jo Bonner (R) unopposed

This is one seat Democrats have no chance of winning.

House 2 – Bobby Bright (D)

2002: Rep. Terry Everett (R) 71%, Charles James (D) 28%
2004: Rep. Terry Everett (R) 69%, Charles James (D) 30%
2006: Bobby Bright (D) 50%, Jay Love (R) 50%

By any measure, Democrats should never win this Southeast Alabama seat, based mostly in Montgomery and Dothan. Yet they did. It took a perfect storm of factors to make it happen. Everett's retirement left the seat open. Democrats nominated Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright, who was both well known and conservative. Republicans had some dissension and ended up with Jay Love, who was not a great candidate. Finally, it was a big Democratic year and black turnout (29% of the district population) peaked.

Despite all this, Bright barely won. This is one of the most likely seats to flip back to the Republicans in 2010. It is still early and Bright has a profile that might succeed here, but there will be no shortage of Republican challengers. Bright has a tough road ahead.

UPDATE: Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby announced that she will be a Republican candidate against Bobby Bright. Jay Love, Bright's 2008 challenger, has not announced his own intentions, but said that he is more likely to run for re-election in the state House of Representatives in 2010.

House 3 – Mike Rogers (R)

2004: Rep. Mike Rogers (R) 61%, Bill Fuller (D) 39%
2006: Rep. Mike Rogers (R) 59%, Greg Pierce (D) 38%
2008: Rep. Mike Rogers (R) 53%, Joshua Segall (D) 47%

Conventional wisdom would suggest that after picking up over fifty seats the last two years, Democrats have limited opportunities in future years. This may be a chance, however. The seat leans Republican, but less so than the 2nd and 5th districts, which Democrats won this year. Segall was not exactly a prime opponent. If Rogers gets an even stronger opponent, and the Democratic trend continues, then Rogers has a problem. However, we expect the Democratic trend will abate as the Democrats wrestle with actually holding power, so we still consider Rogers a favorite.

House 4 – Robert Aderholt (R)

2004: Rep. Robert Aderholt (R) 75%, Cari Cole (D) 25%
2006: Rep. Robert Aderholt (R) 70%, Barbara Bobo (D) 30%
2008: Rep. Robert Aderholt (R) 75%, Nicholas Sparks (D) 25%

If Republicans lose this seat, they really are dead. Aderholt is safe for another term in 2010.

House 5 – Parker Griffith(D)

2004: Rep. Bud Cramer (D) 73%, Gerald Wallace (R) 27%
2006: Rep. Bud Cramer (D) unopposed
2008: Parker Griffith (D) 52%, Wayne Parker (R) 48%

Conservative Democrat Cramer held this Republican leaning Huntsville based seat for eighteen years, and the party hopes Griffith can hold it with a similar profile. Nevertheless, his narrow win in a Democratic year ensures a strong challenge in 2010. This looks like a prime tossup seat for 2010. Much will depend on the Republican nominee, Griffith's fundraising, and the political mood. I expect an end to the Democratic trend in 2010, and a Republican mood would put Griffith in very precarious position.

UPDATE: One possible Republican candidate in this district is Lester Phillips, an African-American navy veteran.

House 6 – Spencer Bachus (R)

2004: Rep. Spencer Bachus (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Spencer Bachus (R) unopposed
2008: Rep. Spencer Bachus (R) unopposed

The strength of the Democratic opposition to Bachus from 2004-2008 illustrates just how strong the Republican Party is in this district.

House 7 – Artur Davis (D)

2004: Rep. Artur Davis (D) 75%, Steve Cameron (R) 25%
2006: Rep. Artur Davis (D) unopposed
2008: Rep. Artur Davis (D) unopposed

This black majority district is safely Democratic. Since Davis is running for governor, this seat will likely be open in 2010. Democrats have wasted no time in getting into this race. Birmingham lawyer Terri Sewell (a former classmate of Michelle Obama at Princeton University and Barack Obama at Harvard Law School) announced her entry into the race in February. In April, State Rep. Earl Hilliard Jr., son of former Congressman Earl Hilliard (who was defeated by Artur Davis in a 2002 primary), threw his hat into the ring. Expect many other candidates to join this field before the June 1, 2010 primary filing deadline.

Whoever wins the Democratic primary in this race will become the next Congressman from Alabama's seventh district.