The Last Frontier generally despises the federal government. This has led to serious Republican domination here over the past thirty years. Until 2009, Republicans had held the two Senate seats and one House seat since 1980. Tony Knowles, elected Governor in 1994 and 1998 against multiple candidate fields, is the only Alaska Democrat to have any success here in the past twenty years, and even he lost statewide races in 2004 and 2006. Alaska politics entered the national spotlight with the selection of Governor Sarah Palin as John McCain’s running mate. Democrats finally won a statewide race, as Democratic Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich barely ousted longtime Republican Senator Ted Stevens. However, they fell well short of ousting embattled Republican Rep. Don Young.
2008 exhibited the weakness of Alaska Democrats. Begich almost certainly would not have won had Stevens not been convicted of seven felonies, and he will be a decided underdog for reelection in 2014. Young could still be vulnerable if his legal problems worsened, but his victory despite them in 2008 helped his standing. Governor Palin should easily win reelection in 2010, and looks to be a strong national contender.
President – 3 Electoral Votes
2000: George Bush (R) 59%, Al Gore (D) 28%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 61%, John Kerry (D) 36%
2008: John McCain (R) 60%, Barack Obama (D) 37%
Some evidence suggests that Alaska was competitive before McCain selected Sarah Palin to be his running mate. Without Palin on the ticket, Obama may have done slightly better, but it is hard to believe that Obama could have come very close to winning. Looking forward, Alaska is a major energy producer and hates federal government interference with state decision making. That is not a the type of profile that will enjoy an Obama Administration. The Republicans will win Alaska easily in 2012, with or without Sarah Palin.
Governor – Sarah Palin (R)
1998: Gov. Tony Knowles (D) 51%, Jon Lindaeur (R) 17%
2002: Frank Murkowski (R) 56%, Fran Ulmer (D) 41%
2006: Sarah Palin (R) 48%, Tony Knowles (D) 41%
Governor Palin actually saw her approval rating drop during her time on the ticket. That said, she still enjoys a healthy approval rating of nearly 60%. Palin will have no problem raising money for her candidacy. While Democrats have made several ethical complaints against the Governor, she has successfully defeated all of them so far. It is hard to see Palin facing any sort of threat for re-election.
The Democratic field is fairly weak. Consultant Bob Poe and activist Rob Rosenfeld are running. Former State Representative Eric Croft has also expressed interest. The two strongest candidates the Democrats could recruit - former Governor Tony Knowles and Senator Mark Begich - will probably not run. Knowles has already lost two statewide elections in recent years, and Begich is unlikely to leave the Senate at this early stage in his career.
Should she choose to run, Palin would be a strong contender for the Republican nomination for the White House in 2012. Grass roots conservatives absolutely love her, so she would have a strong fundraising and volunteer base. Her biggest weakness, especially with non-conservatives, is an impression that she is a lightweight or not qualified. Expect her to stay engaged in national issues in a quest to combat this perception. She may never get over first impressions, but she’ll certainly try. One makes a mistake to underestimate her. Despite her claims of being Joe (or Jane) Six-Pack, her career success shows she is anything but ordinary.
Senior Senator – Lisa Murkowski (R)
1992: Sen. Frank Murkowski (R) 53%, Tony Smith (D) 38%
1998: Sen. Frank Murkowski (R) 74%, Joseph Sonneman (D) 20%
2004: Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) 49%, Tony Knowles (D) 46%
Senator Murkowski survived in 2004 against the strongest Democratic challenger she could draw despite furor over the fact that her father appointed her to the Senate in 2002. With a moderate record she may face a primary challenge, but it is hard to see Alaska Democrats making a serious challenge for this seat. For a time, some speculated that Gov. Palin might run against Murkowski in a primary, but Palin put that speculation to rest by announcing that she would raise funds for the Senator. Murkowksi is a solid favorite for 2010.
Junior Senator – Mark Begich (R)
1996: Sen. Ted Stevens (R) 77%, Theresa Obermeyer (D) 10%
2002: Sen. Ted Stevens (R) 78%, Frank Vondersaar (D) 11%
2008: Mark Begich (D) 48%, Sen. Ted Stevens (R) 47%
Senator Ted Stevens long run in the United States Senate came to a close with the 2008 election. Stevens had been indicted and placed on trial in the months preceding Election Day. In a case of bad timing for Stevens, he was convicted just a week before votes were to be cast. Amazingly, despite his conviction, Stevens still managed to win the votes cast on Election Day, but Begich swept the absentee vote to pull out a narrow win. The narrow margin shows major weakness for Begich and Alaska Democrats. To maintain viability in his home state, Begich will have to compile a relatively moderate record and focus on Alaska issues. Nevertheless, at this very early stage Begich is a likely one term Senator.
The Justice Department dropped the charges against Stevens in early 2009, citing problems at Stevens' trial. While some (including Gov. Palin) called for Begich to resign so that there could be another special election, this will not happen.
House At Large – Don Young (R)
2004: Rep. Don Young (R) 71%, Thomas Higgins (D) 22%
2006: Rep. Don Young (R) 57%, Diane Benson (D) 40%
2008: Rep. Don Young (R) 50%, Ethan Berkowitz (D) 45%
Young continues to face major ethical issues and possible indictment. This was supposed to sink him in 2008 but he won a shockingly comfortable victory over Democrat Ethan Berkowitz. He may be vulnerable to another primary challenge, which he just barely survived in 2008. Republican Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell, who only lost to Young by 304 votes in the 2008 Republican primary, is keeping the door open to running again in 2010. On the Democratic side, there are no obvious challengers, though Berkowitz could run again.
It will be difficult for Democrats to dislodge Young. If he is convicted before the 2010 primary, Lt. Gov. Parnell or another Republican will likely replace him on the ballot. If Young is not convicted, he is still a favorite in 2010.
Thursday, May 21, 2009
State of the Day - Alaska
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5 comments:
"Senator Murkowski survived in 2004 against the strongest Democrat challenger she could draw despite furor over the fact that her father appointed her to the Senate in 2002."
You left "the" out of "the furor," but more importantly, the adjective for "Democrat" is "Democratic." Think by analogy about the difference between the tone of "Jew lawyer" and "Jewish lawyer." "Democrat" as an adjective is used as a slur by many Republicans, but was probably a typo on your part.
I think the term "Democrat" candidate was meant as a teeny weeny slur.
Berkowitz has expressed interest in the gubernatorial race, Benson has stated "I'm not done with Don," and Palin will not run for governor in 2010.
As to the Palin poll plummet, this post mischaracterizes how far Palin has fallen in popularity in Alaska. The most recent poll by Hayes Research showed plus 54% - a HUGE drop from summer 2008. It is one of the fastest, farthest drops of a politician who had become more famous during that time, in US political history. And the ascent of her negatives was even more startling.
Alaskans may hate the Feds (though, not the Feds' $$$), but they can spot and despise a phony better than most states' citizens.
And there has been no poll that yet fully encompasses the public's digestion of the way she handled to 2009 legislative session, the stimulus package, the worst springtime flooding - it isn't over yet - in a generation, and budget vetoes. Not a single political commentator at any media outlet, or blog - other than at the Pain shrines - has assessed her 2009 job during the legislative session positively.
I'm predicting the next will put her down between 53% and 50%.
Philip Munger
Progressive Alaska
JD, you overstate your case by asserting that the 2008 election showed the Democrats' weakness in Alaska.
My sense is that Alaska is at heart culturally libertarian, very much like Montana. Traditional Western values of self-reliance and independent thinking are prized, and both dependence and hypocrisy are scorned. As a result, allegiance is weak to either of the national political parties. Democrats who seem independent-minded have historically done well there (such as Mike Gravel and Tony Knowles), and Republicans who succumb to corruption and hypocrisy tend to get the axe (such as Ted Stevens and Frank Murkowski). Obama's campaign saw Alaska as a potential Democratic pick-up opportunity in the 2008 race until McCain picked Sarah Palin as his running mate.
Like Tony Knowles, Mark Begich is a former mayor of Anchorage, the state's largest city and home of nearly half of its population. By defeating Ted Stevens, Begich simply demonstrated that Democrats can compete and win in Alaska. Sure, some races are easier to win than others. But in no sense does the GOP have a lock on the state.
Considering how the national parties are repositioning themselves right now, I'd expect a few election cycles of serious competitiveness between them in Alaska, provided the state's Democrats can persuade solid candidates to run. In the wake of all the corruption scandals, this is a window of opportunity for Alaska Democrats that they would be wise to jump at. Palin and Young are both much more vulnerable than you suggest, and with the right opponents they could each be toppled.
Philip Munger,
If you read the lengthy posts on this blog, you will see that we write "Democratic" when appropriate and I edited the State of the Day post to reflect that. Any suggestion to the contrary has no basis.
I think Berkowitz would be a weak candidate for governor. If he could not beat a corrupt Congressman, what makes you think he could beat Sarah Palin? There is no doubt Palin's popularity fell as a result of her place on the GOP ticket. Almost all governors have faced sharp decreases in popularity, as they face uncertainty and difficult budget choices.
If Sarah Palin intends on running for President in 2012, she could decide not to run in 2010. However, given that the biggest criticism of Palin is that she is a lightweight, it would make little sense for her to do this.
As far as the poll, there's no doubt Palin's popularity has fallen. However, any incumbent with a 50%+ approval is not in bad shape - certainly not bad enough to throw in the towel. Moreover, it would be totally unrealistic to expect her to maintain the 85%+ approval ratings she had last year.
I assume you are getting your information from this post, which is full of misinformation. First, Don Young has never indicated he would run for Governor. Second, Young recently suggested that Ted Stevens run for governor. Neither Young nor Stevens would stand a good chance against Palin in a primary. The thought of either corrupt politician running for governor is laughable (though I would not put it past them).
Even if Palin's popularity is between 50% and 53%, as you state, she is still in good position to run for Governor in 2010. Moreover, if gas prices go up between now and 2010, that could make things a lot easier for her. At this point, she is a clear favorite.
JSL,
You make interesting points, but I think they help to prove why it will be very difficult for Democrats to win federal races in Alaska going forward. You wrote, "traditional Western values of self-reliance and independent thinking are prized, and both dependence and hypocrisy are scorned." So far, what Obama/Democratic policies promote these virtues? I don't expect a new, larger and possibly intrusive health care plan to do the trick. Given the leftward tilt of Obama's administration, my guess is that there will be little that entices Alaskan voters to consider crossing over to his side of the aisle in 2012.
Indeed, if Alaska's truly have those values, they would likely applaud Sarah Palin's decision to veto $28.6 million in federal stimulus money. In fact, she said, "Alaskans and our communities have a long history of independence and opposing many mandates from Washington, D.C." If the Democrats start adopting policies promoting individual liberties and less dependency on the federal government, then perhaps they will be competitive. I think the only reason Barack Obama might have been competitive is that several of George W. Bush's policies were the exact opposite of what Alaskan's want to see from their elected officials.
"By defeating Ted Stevens, Begich simply demonstrated that Democrats can compete and win in Alaska. Sure, some races are easier to win than others. But in no sense does the GOP have a lock on the state."
I disagree. How often do convicted felons almost win races for Senate? In most states, Stevens (and Young, for that matter) would have easily been defeated. The fact that Stevens came so close is a testament to two things - Stevens' long historical ties to the state and Alaskan's desire to elect someone who is NOT a Democrat. I doubt many people enthusiastically cast votes for Stevens. I think Stevens did as well as he did because he was the non-Democratic option. It think it's safe to say that any non-felon Republican would have won the Senate race.
For the record, I do think that Don Young is vulnerable. Under the right circumstances and given the right opponent, he could easily lose. However, can you envision an environment MORE favorable to Democrats than 2008? It is unlikely to happen in 2010. Unless there are more revelations about Young, I don't think it will be any easier to defeat him in 2010 than it was in 2008.
Similarly, I think that Palin is strong because (a) she is still fairly popular (even if much diminished), (b) no other Republican could easily challenge her for the GOP nomination, and (c) the Democrats have no strong challengers ready to take aim at Palin. For sure, the Democrats will do anything they can to defeat Palin, but right now, I still think she is a significant favorite. Not a lock by any means, but a strong favorite.
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