State of the Day - Arizona

The Grand Canyon State has historically been one of the more Republican states. Since World War II, the state has only voted for two Democratic Presidential candidates - Harry Truman and Bill Clinton (in 1996). However, things may be changing. The state voted Republican for President again, but that had more to do with the candidacy of Arizonan John McCain than anything else. Former Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano was very popular and anti-immigration rhetoric has hurt Arizona Republicans. The immigration issue was largely responsible for the Democrats' gain of two House seats in 2006. Republicans, who lost another House seat in 2008, run the risk of alienating the rapidly growing Hispanic population that went heavily toward the Democrats in 2008.

Democrats will be in strong position to continue their good work in 2010. President Obama's choice of Janet Napolitano to lead the Department of Homeland Security led to a new Republican Governor, Jan Brewer. Still, Democrats will have a strong chance of regaining the governorship in 2010. Sen. John McCain should be safe for another term in the Senate, but Democrats will likely keep the three House seats they picked during the past two cycles. Democrats have made huge strides in the West over the past four years, and they can make big strides in Arizona, too.

President – 10 Electoral Votes

2000: George Bush (R) 51%, Al Gore (D) 45%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 55%, John Kerry (D) 44%
2008: John McCain (R) 54%, Barack Obama (D) 45%

Native son John McCain kept Arizona from becoming a true battleground in 2008. Obama's campaign did advertise in Arizona during the last days of the campaign, but he never made a serious effort here. Obama won the reservation counties and the heavily Hispanic border area, but lost everything else. Interestingly, McCain also performed well among young voters in his home stating, winning 48% of those under 30.

Arizona will be Obama's best chance to pick up a new state in 2012. The state still leans Republican, but McCain's nine point margin overstates Republican strength in this state.

Governor – Jan Brewer (R)

1998: Gov. Jane Hull (R) 61%, Paul Johnson (D) 36%
2002: Janet Napolitano (D) 46%, Matt Salmon (R) 45%
2006: Gov. Janet Napolitano (D) 63%, Len Munsil (R) 35%

Republican Jan Brewer, the former Arizona Secretary of State, became Governor when Janet Napolitano became Secretary of Homeland Security on January 20, 2009 (in Arizona, a gubernatorial vacancy is filled by the Secretary of State since there is no Lieutenant Governor). Brewer seeks to follow in the footsteps of Napolitano, who maintained high approval ratings throughout her tenure. Brewer has her hands full - she has already drawn the ire of some conservatives with her proposal to temporarily raise taxes to close the state's budget deficit.

Brewer has not announced her intentions for 2010, though many believe she will run for a full term. If the Governor does decide to run for office in 2010, she will likely see primary opposition. Former state representative Karen Johnson has already announced her candidacy. Other candidates include libertarian Roy Moore, pastor Tim Willis, and Tempe insurance agent Janelle Wood. Two possible wild cards are Congressmen John Shadegg and Jeff Flake.

The Democrats' best potential candidates are Attorney General Terry Goddard or Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon.

Right now, this race has no clear favorite. Brewer could benefit from being the incumbent, but it is too early to know whether Arizonans will embrace their new Governor.

Senior Senator – John McCain (R)

1992: Sen. John McCain (R) 56%, Claire Sargent (D) 32%
1998: Sen. John McCain (R) 69%, Ed Ranger (D) 27%
2004: Sen. John McCain (R) 77%, Stuart Starky (D) 21%

John McCain has already announced plans to run in 2010. McCain may face a few minor primary challengers, such as Minuteman founder Chris Simcox and Jim Deakin.

Governor Janet Napolitano would have been the Democrats' strongest candidate, but her appointment as Secretary of Homeland Security almost certainly takes her out of the race. The only Democrat who has announced his candidacy so far is Rudy Garcia, who was Mayor of Bell Gardens, California (Garcia has only lived in Arizona since 2004).

Even though McCain is not as strong as he was in 2004, he is a solid favorite to win re-election.

Junior Senator – Jon Kyl (R)

1994: Jon Kyl (R) 54%, Sam Coppersmith (D) 40%
2000: Sen. Jon Kyl (R) unopposed
2006: Sen. Jon Kyl (R) 53%, Jim Pederson (D) 43%

In 2006, Kyl scored an impressive victory over stiff competition despite the awful Republican environment of that election cycle. Kyl cannot be totally safe given Arizona’s Democratic trend, but he seems to be in good shape for 2012.

House 1 – Ann Kirkpatrick (D)

2004: Rep. Rick Renzi (R) 59%, Paul Babbit (D) 36%
2006: Rep. Rick Renzi (R) 52%, Ellen Simon (D) 43%
2008: Ann Kirkpatrick (D) 56%, Sydney Hay (R) 40%

Ann Kirkpatrick easily won this contest to replace former Republican Rep. Rick Renzi, who retired because of ethical and legal problems. While Democrats had the wind at their back in 2008, Kirkpatrick's win was impressive since this district was designed to be competitive. Republicans will surely target Kirkpatrick, but she definitely has an edge. The district seems to be trending toward the Democrats and Kirkpatrick may be the type of Democrat that fits this district well. One Republican challenger could be State Representative Bill Konopnicki, who declined to run in 2008.

House 2 – Trent Franks (R)

2004: Rep. Trent Franks (R) 59%, Randy Camacho (D) 39%
2006: Rep. Trent Franks (R) 59%, John Thrasher (D) 39%
2008: Rep. Trent Franks (R) 60%, John Thrasher (D) 37%

This Sun City based district is a mostly Republican seat. As Franks has easily survived the last two cycles, it is hard to see him being in much danger. He is probably set for life.

House 3 – John Shadegg (R)

2004: Rep. John Shadegg (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. John Shadegg (R) 59%, Herb Paine (D) 38%
2008: Rep. John Shadegg (R) 54%, Bob Lord (D) 42%

In February 2008, Rep. John Shadegg announced plans to retire from this North Phoenix seat. Ten days later, he retracted this statement and announced that he would be running. Bob Lord provided stiff opposition, but came nowhere close to Shadegg in this Republican leaning seat. Shadegg may continue to see competition given the Democratic trend in the suburbs, but the seat will continue to lean his way as long as he holds it.

House 4 – Ed Pastor (D)

2004: Rep. Ed Pastor (D) 70%, Don Karg (R) 26%
2006: Rep. Ed Pastor (D) 73%, Don Karg (R) 24%
2008: Rep. Ed Pastor (D) 72%, Don Karg (R) 22%

This is an utterly safe Democratic district. Pastor, one of the most liberal members of Congress, has no worries.

House 5 – Harry Mitchell (D)

2004: Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) 59%, Elizabeth Rogers (D) 38%
2006: Harry Mitchell (D) 50%, Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) 46%
2008: Rep. Harry Mitchell (D) 53%, David Schweikert (R) 44%

This Scottsdale/Tempe seat leans Republican, but Mitchell took advantage of a controversial incumbent to pick the seat off in 2006. He faced a decent, but hardly sterling challenge in 2008. This is type of seat where Democrats have done very well in the past two cycles, but continued success is hardly guaranteed.

The NRCC would be wise to target this seat for 2010. With a strong Republican in a year more conducive to Republicans, this is a total tossup, if not a slight Republican advantage. This is a district to watch in determining whether the Republicans can make serious gains in the House of Representatives in 2010.

House 6 – Jeff Flake (R)

2004: Rep. Jeff Flake (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Jeff Flake (R) unopposed
2008: Rep. Jeff Flake (R) 63%, Rebecca Schneider (D) 35%

Flake is not a standard issue Republican, often angering GOP leadership by opposing any sort of spending. Nevertheless, this is a safe Republican seat and Flake looks safe for 2010.

House 7 – Raul Grijalva (D)

2004: Rep. Raul Grijalva (D) 62%, Joseph Sweeney (R) 34%
2006: Rep. Raul Grijalva (D) 61%, Ron Drake (R) 35%
2008: Rep. Raul Grijalva (D) 63%, Joseph Sweeney (R) 33%

This district is so Democratic that Grijalva’s margins of victory aren’t really very impressive. He may attract a competent opponent, but he’s not going to lose.

House 8 – Gabrielle Giffords (D)

2004: Rep. Jim Kolbe (R) 60%, Eva Bacal (D) 36%
2006: Gabrielle Giffords (D) 54%, Randy Graf (R) 42%
2008: Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D) 55%, Tim Bee (R) 43%

Giffords is a rising star and could be a future statewide candidate. She won this Tuscon based seat against a weak opponent in 2006, but held it impressively against a very strong opponent in 2008. Giffords may face a stiff challenge in 2010, but she remains a favorite. So far, Iraq veteran Jesse Kelley is the only announced Republican candidate.