State of the Day - Arkansas

The Natural State has developed a marked dichotomy. It is a quite conservative state, especially socially, and this is reflected in the fact that Arkansas has become a reliably Republican state in Presidential elections. In fact, it was one of the few states that gave John McCain a bigger margin of victory than it ever gave George W. Bush. Locally, however, the partisan balance is a different story. Arkansas Democrats tend to be much more conservative than their national counterparts. These conservative Democrats personified in Governor Mike Beebe and the state’s Congressional delegation dominate Arkansas politics on all levels. The Republican Party, aside from some strength in Northwest Arkansas, is disorganized and demoralized. This has led to some embarrassingly poor performances for Republican candidates in a state that should be friendly to the GOP.

Not much looks to change in the near future. Governor Beebe and Senator Blanche Lincoln will likely coast to reelection. The hapless Republicans have shown no evidence they can compete for any of the three Democratic House seats or cut into the Democrats’ 3 to 1 advantage in the State Legislature. The status quo looks to continue to reign in Arkansas.


President – 6 Electoral Votes

2000: George Bush (R) 51%, Al Gore (D) 46%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 54%, John Kerry (D) 45%
2008: John McCain (R) 59%, Barack Obama (D) 39%

Aside from going solidly for native son Bill Clinton twice, Arkansas has been a reliably Republican state since 1980. It has gotten more Republican this decade. In 2000, George W. Bush won a narrow victory over Al Gore. In 2008, Arkansas was one of one of John McCain's best states. Unlike many other southern states, Obama did not stand to gain much from increased African-American turnout, since Arkansas has the lowest black population of any Southern state. Arkansas has a large enough Democratic base to make it possible for Obama to perform better here but if the Republican nominee does not win this state in 20120, then he or she will be headed for an historic wipeout.

Governor – Mike Beebe (D)

1998: Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) 60%, Bill Bristow (D) 39%
2002: Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) 53%, Jimmie Lou Fisher (D) 47%
2006: Mike Beebe (D) 56%, Asa Hutchinson (R) 41%

A recent PPP poll gave Beebe a 68% approval rating and Arkansas Republicans have neither a credible candidate nor any demonstrated competence. Beebe should win another term easily.

Senior Senator – Blanche Lincoln (D)

1992: Sen. Dale Bumpers (D) 60%, Mike Huckabee (R) 40%
1998: Blanche Lincoln (D) 55%, Fay Boozman (R) 42%
2004: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) 56%, Jim Holt (R) 44%

Looking at Lincoln's previous numbers and McCain's big win here would lead one to believe that Republicans have a great shot at picking up this seat in 2010. However, the weak state of the Arkansas GOP gives Lincoln an edge she would not otherwise enjoy.

A recent PPP poll showed that Lincoln had lukewarm approval ratings (45% approve, 40% disapprove), though she had leads over two potential Republican candidates - former U.S. Attorney Tim Griffin and state senator Gilbert Baker. Mike Huckabee could probably beat her, but he looks busy with his Fox News show and he seems to have his eye on the 2012 Presidential race.

Lincoln is definitely a favorite to win in 2010, but Arkansas' preference for Republicans at the federal level means that under the right circumstances, the GOP could make this a competitive race.

Update (05/26/09 12:53 PM): Former U.S. Attorney Tim Griffin said he will not run against Blanche Lincoln in 2010. State Sen. Kim Hendren is the only announced Republican candidate so far.

Junior Senator – Mark Pryor (D)

1996: Tim Hutchinson (R) 53%, Winston Bryant (D) 47%
2002: Mark Pryor (D) 54%, Sen. Tim Hutchinson (R) 46%
2008: Sen. Mark Pryor (D) unopposed

I know the conservative Pryor, blessed with a great Arkansas name, would be tough to beat, but Republicans should be ashamed for not nominating anybody. 2014 is a long way off, but Pryor has a good chance at matching his father's three terms in the Senate.

House 1 – Marion Berry (D)

2004: Rep. Marion Berry (D) 67%, Vernon Humphrey (R) 33%
2006: Rep. Marion Berry (D) 69%, Mickey Stumbaugh (R) 31%
2008: Rep. Marion Berry (D) unopposed

While Al Gore won this district in 2000, it has been trending heavily toward the GOP at the Presidential level - McCain won the district by over 20 points. Still, Berry's association with Blue Dog Democrats and the Republicans' ineffectiveness have made this seat safely Democratic in the last several election cycles.

Berry is a solid favorite for 2010, but it looks the GOP will not give him a free pass again. The NRCC has already spent money on ads criticizing Berry for supporting the President's stimulus bill. Republican businessman and veteran Rick Crawford, who participated in some of the Tea Party activism, is planning to run against Berry.

House 2 – Vic Snyder (D)

2004: Rep. Vic Snyder (D) 58%, Marvin Parks (R) 42%
2006: Rep. Vic Snyder (D) 61%, Andy Mayberry (R) 39%
2008: Rep. Vic Snyder (D) unopposed

Snyder, like the rest of Arkansas's Democratic Congressional delegation, has a good profile for this conservative state. Between that and a lack of decent Republican challengers, Snyder seems to be perpetually safe in this Little Rock centered district.

Some Republicans believe they will have a shot here if there is an anti-Democrat mood in 2010. The NRCC has already targeted Synder in some early advertising.

House 3 – John Boozman (R)

2004: Rep. John Boozman (R) 59%, Janice Judy (D) 38%
2006: Rep. John Boozman (R) 62%, Woodrow Anderson (D) 38%
2008: Rep. John Boozman (R) unopposed

This district is so Republican that even Arkansas Republicans cannot lose it.

House 4 – Mike Ross (D)

2004: Rep. Mike Ross (D) unopposed
2006: Rep. Mike Ross (D) 75%, Joe Ross (R) 25%
2008: Rep. Mike Ross (D) unopposed

Ross is your typical successful Arkansas Democrat. By definition, this means Republicans don't bother making his life difficult. The Hot Springs/Southern Arkansas district looks like it can go either way on paper, but the Republicans' weakness in the state means that Ross has little to fear.