State of the Day - Wyoming

The Equality State has always been pretty Republican. It became exceedingly so in the 1990's, thanks in large part to revulsion over Clinton Administration environmental policies. Environmentalists may have enjoyed all the national monuments created in the West, but Wyoming didn't appreciate bans on the use of natural resources. In both 2000 and 2004, this was twice one of George W. Bush's best states and not just because of the presence of Wyoming’s own Dick Cheney. Democrats can still do okay on the state level, but only if they are not obviously associated with national Democrats.

Wyoming showed just how Republican it is in 2008, when it gave John McCain a huge victory, despite Barack Obama's convincing seven point win in the national popular vote.

President – 3 Electoral Votes

2000: George Bush (R) 69%, Al Gore (D) 28%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 69%, John Kerry (D) 29%
2008: John McCain (R) 65%, Barack Obama (D) 33%

Wyoming is one of the most Republican states on the Presidential level. Despite Obama's great success in turning many former red states into blue ones, he made little progress here. Wyoming gave John McCain his largest winning margin. Whoever the GOP nominates in 2012 can count on Wyoming's three electoral votes.

Governor – Dave Freudenthal (D)

1998: Gov. Jim Geringer (R) 56%, John Vinich (D) 41%
2002: Dave Freudenthal (D) 50%, Eli Bebout (R) 48%
2006: Gov. Dave Freudenthal (D) 70%, Ray Hunkins (R) 30%

Is Governor Freudenthal term limited? The answer is yes and no. Wyoming does have a two term limit for its governors, but a 2004 state Supreme Court decision invalidated term limits for state legislators since they were imposed by state initiative, rather than a state constitutional amendment. If the Governor makes a similar legal effort to overturn the gubernatorial term limits, he would likely succeed. However, so far Freudenthal has not stated whether he will challenge the term limits. In the meantime, the political scene in Wyoming is frozen, pending the Governor's decision. If Freudenthal decides to retire, Paul Hickey and State Senator Mike Massie are the most likely Democrats to put their hats into the ring.

Republicans have a wider bench of potential candidates, though Freudenthal's decision on term limits is likely to affect the field. State House Speaker Roy Cohee and State House Majority Leader Colin Simpson are thought likely to run. Other potential candidates include former U.S. Attorney Matt Mead, Ron Micheli, and Auditor Rita C. Meyer.

If Freudenthal decides to run again, he is only a mild favorite. The Democratic Governor is popular, but defying term limits could hurt his standing within the state. If the Governor retires, the Republicans have a great chance to pick up this office.

Senior Senator – Michael Enzi (R)

1996: Michael Enzi (R) 54%, Joyce Corcoran (D) 42%
2002: Sen. Michael Enzi (R) 73%, Joyce Corcoran (D) 27%
2008: Sen. Michael Enzi (R) 76%, Chris Rothfuss (D) 24%

Democrats simply do not win federal races in Wyoming. As long as he stays out of trouble, Senator Enzi should be safe for as long as he would like to keep this seat.

Junior Senator – John Barrasso (R)

2000: Sen. Craig Thomas (R) 74%, Mel Logan (D) 22%
2006: Sen. Craig Thomas (R) 70%, Dale Groutage (D) 30%
2008: Sen. John Barrasso (R) 73%, Nick Carter (D) 27%

Senator Barrasso was appointed by Dave Freudenthal to the Senate (Wyoming law requires the governor to make the appointment from among three nominees submitted by party of the previous Senator) after Craig Thomas died. Even though Barrasso was once pro-choice, he avoided a primary challenger and easily coasted to victory against Nick Carter. Barrasso looks to be in good shape for 2014.

House At Large – Barbara Cubin (R)

2004: Rep. Barbara Cubin (R) 55%, Ted Ladd (D) 42%
2006: Rep. Barbara Cubin (R) 48%, Gary Trauner (D) 48%
2008: Cynthia Lummis (R) 53%, Gary Trauner (D) 43%

The Republican Party likely benefited from Rep. Barbara Cubin's retirement in 2008. Cubin had a caustic personality and missed more votes than any member of Congress. To make matters worse, in 2006 Cubin told the wheelchair bound Libertarian candidate that she wanted to slap him after one debate.

While Lummis trailed Trauner in some early polls of this race last summer, Lummis managed to win by a ten point margin. While Democrats might try to target Lummis, she should be safe as long as she has more tact than her predecessor.