Was 2008 A Realignment?

On The Real Clear Politics Blog, author Sean Trende takes an interesting look at whether 2008 was a realigning election by historic standards. It is an interesting read for anyone who enjoys political analysis.

More amusingly, Trende quotes two columns from Ron Brownstein - one from 2004, in which he heralds the coming of a new Republican era and one from 2009, in which he discusses the sorry state of the Republican Party and the possibility that the GOP's power could be shrinking substantially.

Brownstein's column is clearly a reflection of "follow the leader." In 2004, the conventional wisdom was that Republican strength was growing, so Brownstein penned a column stating that. Of course, the conventional wisdom has taken a complete reversal since then, so Brownstein, too, has shifted with the wind.

In politics, substantial changes rarely rapidly occur and 2008 seems to be no exception. Trende's blog post does an excellent job of showing how drastically things DID change from 1888 to 1896. However, Trende's analysis demonstrates that there is little evidence to suggest that 2004-2008 represents a drastic change from previous years. Did the nation as a whole vote more Democratic in 2008? Sure. Did the nation as a whole permanently become more Democratic in 2008? Only time will tell, but Ron Brownstein's columns demonstrate that the conventional wisdom can change quickly.