Yesterday, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska shocked the political world by announcing that not only would she not seek re-election in 2010, but she would resign from being Governor on July 26. While many expected she would forego re-election, nobody predicted her early departure as governor.
What does Palin's move mean? The early reaction has been scattered, though the conventional wisdom seems to be that Palin is all but finished as far as 2012 is concerned. At this point, it's too early to tell how things will shake out.
Overall, Plain's resignation has many negative consequences. If Palin does want to run for President, she must do so without finishing a full term of any major elected office. Sarah Palin's biggest problem is the public's perception that she's a lightweight and not ready to hold true responsibility. Resigning only magnifies this concern. Opponents will surely say, "How can we rely on Gov. Palin to finish a term of the Presidency, if she could not stand the heat of being governor of Alaska?"
If Sarah Palin did want to launch a 2012 Presidential bid, she would have been better off saying so yesterday. Such an announcement would have, at the very least, provided a rational explanation for her actions, even if many would have still disagreed with them. Instead, she leaves the political pundits with plenty to discuss this Independence Day weekend.
Of course, another possibility is that Gov. Palin has had it with electoral politics and that she wants to retreat from public life. That would make sense. The constant negativity thrown at her from the left would wear down anybody over time. Moreoever, Palin's national profile has surely put a financial strain on her family - many estimate that Palin had $500,000 or more in legal bills stemming from ethical complaints that have so far been proven completely false. Freed from the constraints of holding public office, Palin could easily raise enough money to pay her legal bills and fly around the country in style.
The problem with this last theory is that Gov. Palin's speech yesterday did not sound like one being made by a politician looking to get out of the business. Taken at face value, it seems that Palin was seeking to make an unconventional move that will allow her freedom to do something bigger.
If Sarah Palin does run for President, she will have steep hurdles to overcome. Before the resignation, Palin generally enjoyed the support of conservatives. She will retain much of this popularity, but at least some conseratives will question whether she does have the chops necessary for the Presidency (one conservative friend noted, "This just makes her look like too much of a flake). Palin's biggest problem has always been proving that she is up to the job - now, she will have to make an affirmative case that she is up to the challenge.
Palin's resignation will probably hurt her standing among conservatives to some extent, but she is still the most high profile Republican in the field of candidates looking at 2012. If she chooses to run, Palin will be a fundraising powerhouse and a formidable force. Will the public be willing to entrust a 3 year governor with the Presidency? That's the bigger question that remains unanswered.
Saturday, July 4, 2009
Gov. Sarah Palin's Mysterious Move
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2 comments:
The public may very well be prepared to entrust the presidency to a 3 year (or two and a half years in Palin's case). I recall that the public just declared a certain first time senator ready to be president.
The big question is really if they are prepared to entrust the presidency to Sarah Palin, who's not just any 3 year governor, but an exceptionally well known politician most people already have an opinion about. I think the answer is no.
You're right that Palin could raise a lot of money. She's the kind of candidate that makes a lot of people excited, but the problem is that I think the number of people who either actively dislike her or remain deeply skeptical is bigger.
A case could be made that Palin damaged McCain's campaign last year. See for example here. That's extremely rare for a VP candidate (the only other example I can think of would be Thomas Eagleton). McCain probably never had a big chance of winning, but Palin may have made the situation worse.
And now she resigns, out of the blue. The fact that Palin announced her resignation with a rambling and unrehearsed statement, probably only made the damage to her brand bigger.
Tobias,
Interesting comments. Right now, I think it would be very difficult for Sarah Palin to win the Presidency. As you noted, most people have an opinion about Palin and I think that many people do question her ability to take on such a prominent role. It's hard to see how Palin's resignation will help alleviate any concerns the public might have. However, things can change fast and even 2012 is a long way off.
In a traditional sense, Palin has all but thrown away her political future. However, I still think it's too early to say whether Palin has thrown away her chance at anything bigger. Palin is still very young for a politician and there is plenty of time for public perceptions to change.
Palin's biggest asset is that she has political talents that most other politicians would love to have. She is a great speaker (though her speech the other day was not her best), she connects with voters, and she inspires a lot of excitement in many parts of the conservative base. It is these talents that keep Palin relevant, at least in the short term. Whether she can use those talents to do anything larger is the bigger question.
Whether Palin was a benefit or a detriment to McCain's campaign is impossible to know. The link you provided is interesting, but I still think that Palin made little difference to the end result. While the charts in that link look at favorability, if you actually look at McCain's standing in the polls against Obama, he fell substantially after the financial crisis peaked in mid-September with the fall of Lehman Brothers.
More than anything, Palin's move probably illustrates that she is NOT being handled by experienced political veterans (I doubt any such advisors would have suggested resignation if she has bigger ambitions) and mostly marching to the beat of her own drum.
Even if Palin never makes it to higher political office, she could still be a force within the Republican Party and the conservative movement.
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