Breaking News: NY-23: Scozzafava Drops Out

This morning, Republican Assemblywoman Dierdre Scozzafavan announced that she is suspending her campaign. This comes as welcome news to Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. Recently, Hoffman - who had unsuccessfully sought the GOP nomination in NY-23 - had been picking up steam, with some polls showing him leading the race against Democrat Bill Owens.

Scozzafava's decision should help the Hoffman campaign, as Republicans had been splitting their votes between the two candidates. Since her decision came only a few days before the election, Scozzafava is likely to get some votes next Tuesday anyway. However, one would expect her support to collapse and for much of this support to transfer to Hoffman. Since Hoffman and Owens were polling relatively close to one another, Hoffman only needs a small number of Scozzafava's voters to pull ahead.

As a result of these developments, Beyond The Polls rates this race as a Toss Up, leaning toward the GOP.