2010 Senate Ratings - December 16, 2010

Because of personal circumstances, it has been a while since we've weighed in with new content. A few days ago, I quickly put together some preliminary Senate ratings for 2010. Given that the election is almost a year away and candidates have not been selected in many of these races, these ratings will almost certainly change.

One note on Toss Up's. Many political commentators, like Charlie Cook, use a generic "Toss Up" rating to describe any close race. Beyond The Polls believes that even for these races, it is important to predict a winner. Simply calling all the close races a "Toss Up" is too easy and not instructive. Thus, whenever we rate a race "Toss Up, Democratic," for example, it means that we believe the race could go either way, but the Democrats would have a small edge.

If the election were held today, I believe the most likely outcome would be a Republican gain of about 5 or 6 seats. Depending on the way Toss Up seats fell, the Republicans could no gain or a gain of up to 9 seats.

Summary of JD's Rankings:
Solid Republican (11): Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah
Likely Republican (2): Louisiana, North Carolina
Leans Republican (4): Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Nevada
Toss Up, Republican (5): Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania
Total: 22

Solid Democratic (9): Indiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York (Schumer), Oregon, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin, Hawaii
Likely Democratic (3) : California, New York (Gillibrand), North Dakota
Leans Democratic (0): None
Toss Up, Democratic (3): Colorado, Illinois, New Hampshire
Total: 15.


For a state-by-state list, please click the link below.

Alabama - Solid Republican
Alaska - Solid Republican
Arkansas - Toss Up, Republican. Recent polls have shown Blanche Lincoln to be unpopular and vulnerable to GOP challengers. The GOP field still has to sort itself out, but we give the GOP a small edge here.
Arizona - Solid Republican
California - Likely Democrat. Barbara Boxer is the type of candidate that should be vulnerable, but California has swung so far toward the Democrats, it is hard to see her losing, even if there is a GOP "wave." If Carly Fiorina's candidacy takes off, she could give Boxer a good fight, but right now Boxer has little reason to worry.
Colorado - Toss Up, Democrat. This ranking is mostly informed by the GOP's poor performance here for several election cycles. This is definitely a seat the GOP could pick up.
Connecticut - Leans Republican. Like Harry Reid (see below), Chris Dodd is incredibly unpopular and Republican Rob Simmons is a strong candidate. Unless Dodd's approval ratings magically improve, he's in trouble.
Delaware - Leans Republican. Rep. Mike Castle is a very strong candidate, especially if Beau Biden decides not to run for office. Even if Biden does run, Castle will have a strong shot here. Castle is the only Republican that could win this race.
Florida - Leans Republican. If Gov. Charlie Christ, who is very popular in Florida among independents and Democrats, wins the primary, he should coast to victory. If the more conservative Marco Rubio wins the primary, it could be a closer race, but the GOP still has an edge.
Georgia - Solid Republican
Hawaii - Solid Democrat
Idaho - Solid Republican
Illinois - Toss Up, Democratic. Republican Rep. Mark Kirk is the best challenger the Republicans could have hoped to get. Still, Illinois is a Democratic state and Kirk will have a tough time. However, Kirk is the type of candidate who could probably ride an anti-Democratic wave to victory, if such a wave occurs.
Indiana - Solid Democratic
Iowa - Solid Republican
Kansas - Solid Republican
Kentucky - Toss Up, Republican. The GOP should win this seat, but if Rand Paul wins the GOP primary, all bets are off.
Louisiana - Likely Republican. Louisiana is one of the most solidly Republican states in the country when it comes to national elections. Vitter is not the GOP's best possible candidate, but Melancon has a big uphill battle. If President Obama's approval ratings remain low through 2010, it's hard to see any Democrat winning this seat.
Massachusetts - Solid Democratic
Maryland - Solid Democratic
Missouri - Toss Up, Republican. Even though Missouri is often called a bellweather, the state clearly showed its GOP colors in 2008 by narrowly voting for Sen. John McCain. Kit Bond's retirement makes things harder for the GOP, but Roy Blunt is a formidable candidate. That said, Democratic nominee Robin Carnahan will be a very strong contender.
Nevada - Leans Republican. Everyone knew this race would be competitive, but Harry Reid's chances of remaining in the Senate are looking smaller with each passing day. Almost every recent poll shows Harry Reid's approval ratings in the tank with all potential GOP challengers defeating him. Reid is doing himself no favors by pushing a health care plan that many Nevadan's oppose. Much like Jon Corzine in New Jersey, Reid is going to have a very difficult time overcoming voter's disapproval of his performance in office.
New Hampshire - Toss Up, Democratic. While the GOP has fielded a solid candidate, New Hampshire has definitely swung toward the Democrats. Depending on how things develop, the GOP could definitely win here, but right now, I am not willing to say it will happen.
New York - Schumer - Solid Democratic
New York - Gillibrand - Likely Democratic. Unless Rudy Giuliani runs for this seat, the Democrats will easily retain it. The bigger question could be what happens in the Democratic primary.
North Carolina - Likely Republican. Burr isn't the most popular Republican, but in what looks like a good year for the GOP, he should win.
North Dakota - Likely Democratic. As long as Republican Gov. John Hoeven stays on the sidelines, this is an easy Democratic retention. If Hoeven throws his hat into the ring, it would transform this race.
Ohio - Toss Up, Republican. This one could really go either way. Since the overall mood for 2010 looks anti-Democratic and Ohio was not one of Obama's best states (even though he won), I think this race slightly favors the GOP.
Oklahoma - Solid Republican
Oregon - Solid Democrat
Pennsylvania - Toss Up, Republican. This seat should advantage the Democrats, but Arlen Specter has kept things interesting. Specter, who bolted the Republican Party because of a primary challenge from Pat Toomey, now faces a primary challenge from Rep. Joe Sestak. If Specter survives, Toomey will have a good chance of defeating him. Specter's biggest problem in the state is that he's simply not very popular, regardless of his party identification.
South Carolina - Solid Republican
South Dakota - Solid Republican
Utah - Solid Republican
Vermont - Solid Democrat
Washington State - Solid Democrat
Wisconsin - Solid Democrat