Republicans in Connecticut got a bit of good news, as former Rep. Rob Simmons announced that he will be running against Sen. Chris Dodd in 2010. While Dodd has long been viewed as a favorite for re-election, his role in the Countrywide mortgage scandal, along with his failed Presidential bid, have made him more vulnerable than one might expect. A recent Quinnipiac poll showed Simmons with a small lead over Dodd.
It's certainly too early to count out Chris Dodd. He has been a mainstay in Connecticut for several years, and the state is still very Democratic one. Dodd will have no problem raising funds, though that may just serve to highlight the fact that Dodd has become a consummate Washington insider.
Simmons' decision will certainly be welcome at the NRSC. Simmons has been viewed by many as the strongest potential challenger to Dodd. Simmons narrowly lost his house seat in the Democratic wave of 2006, but he showed an ability to win in a Democratic district in 2000, 2002, and 2004.
Monday, March 16, 2009
Former Rep. Simmons To Challenge Dodd
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Corzine's Woes Continue
In a Quinnipiac poll released today, Governor Jon Corzine trails likely Republican candidate (and former U.S. Attorney) Chris Christie by 9 points (46%-37%). In February, Christie had a six point lead in the same poll. One very startling number is that New Jersey voters say, by a 53-34 margin, that Gov. Corzine does not deserve to be re-elected. Corzine also has a negative 38-50 favorability rating.
Clearly, Governor Corzine is in a lot of trouble. However, Corzine has the advantage of nearly unlimited campaign funds and a state that still favors Democrats. Make no mistake - Corzine is in trouble and will have to improve his standing from where it is now to win reelection. It is hard to be optimistic about the chances of any Republican candidate in New Jersey given their frequent failures over the last twenty years, but Corzine may give the GOP the opening it needs.
Friday, March 6, 2009
State of the Day - West Virginia
For most of the 20th Century, the Mountain State was one of the most Democratic in the nation. It only voted Republican for President in huge landslides, and it did not desert Michael Dukakis in 1988. It is still by and large a Democratic state, and Democrats dominate state politics. However, George W. Bush carried West Virginia twice, and it has become evident that West Virginians will not vote for liberal national Democrats with whom they cannot identify. George W. Bush's social conservatism and charm had no problem getting past perceived urban elite liberals Al Gore and John Kerry. Democrats easily won the Governor’s Mansion even as Bush won here easily.
2008 provided an excellent example of the Democrats that can be successful in West Virgnia. Barack Obama struggled in a state that lacked the demographic groups that formed his "base" - youthful voters, African Americans and "latte liberals." Meanwhile, socially conservative Democratic Governor Joe Manchin easily won. As long as Democrats nominate liberals like Barack Obama, they are going to have trouble winning here at the Presidential level.
President – 5 Electoral Votes
2000: George Bush (R) 52%, Al Gore (D) 46%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 56%, John Kerry (D) 43%
2004: John McCain (R) 56%, Barack Obama (D) 43%
If Democrats ever nominated a Southerner, social moderate, or anyone with outsized blue collar appeal, you would see that West Virginia is still, at heart, a Democratic state. Barack Obama is none of the above, and that is why he struggled in the Democratic primary here and lost to John McCain by 13 points. If anything, Obama's plans to enact a cap and trade system for carbon emissions will probably put West Virginia even further out of reach for 2012.
Governor – Joe Manchin (D)
2000: Robert Wise (D) 50%, Gov. Cecil H. Underwood (R) 47%
2004: Joe Manchin (D) 64%, Monty Warner (R) 34%
2008: Joe Manchin (D) 70%, Russ Weeks (R) 26%
Manchin is incredibly popular, even after revelations West Virginia University gave his daughter a degree she did not earn. Manchin is quite conservative, and may be more popular among non-Democrats than within his own party. At the state level, Democrats clearly dominate in West Virginia.
Senior Senator – Robert Byrd (D)
1994: Sen. Robert Byrd (D) 69%, Stan Klos (R) 31%
2000: Sen. Robert Byrd (D) 78%, David T. Gallaher (R) 20%
2006: Sen. Robert Byrd (D) 64%, John Raese (R) 34%
The ninety year old Senator Byrd says he will continue "'til this old body drops." and that probably means he'll stay in the Senate as long as he's alive. Byrd is more than an institution in West Virginia, he is a way of life. West Virginia's voters will surely indulge him as he turns into Strom Thurmond. Whether Byrd runs or not, the best Republican candidate would be Representative Shelley Moore Capito.
Junior Senator – Jay Rockefeller (D)
1996: Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D) 77%, Betty A. Burks (R) 23%
2002: Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D) 63%, Jay Wofle (R) 37%
2008: Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D) 64%, Jay Wofle (R) 36%
Rockefeller is the exception that proves the rule about "down home West Virginia Democrats." Actually, despite his name, Rockefeller has an affable persona that connects with West Virginia voters.
House 1 – Alan Mollohan (D)
2004: Rep. Alan Mollohan (D) 68%, Alan Parks (R) 32%
2006: Rep. Alan Mollohan (D) 64%, Chris Wakim (R) 36%
2008: Rep. Alan Mollohan (D) unopposed
Despite a scandal involving using his Appropriations perch to enrich his real estate holdings and a district that leans Republican, Mollohan was unopposed in 2008. Can you tell that the West Virginia Republican party is pretty weak?
House 2 – Shelley Moore Capito (R)
2004: Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) 57%, Erik Wells (D) 41%
2006: Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) 57%, Mike Callaghan (D) 43%
2006: Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) 57%, Anne Barth (D) 43%
In 2006 and 2008, Demorats targeted Capito, without success. Both times Democrats failed to get their preferred candidate, but Capito has displayed an ability to survive despite the toxic environment for her party that existed in 2006 and 2008. Democrats will likely target Capito again, but she is a favorite to win re-election.
House 3 – Nick Rahall (D)
2004: Rep. Nick Rahall (D) 65%, Rick Snuffer (R) 35%
2006: Rep. Nick Rahall (D) 69%, Kim Wolfe (R) 31%
2008: Rep. Nick Rahall (D) 67%, Gary Gearheart (R) 33%
This district has tended to vote right at the national average in Presidential elections, though it seems to have given McCain a sizeable win in November. Rahall, a blue collar entrenched Democrat, will have no problem winning here.
State Of The Day - Washington
The Evergreen State has cycled from a heavily Democratic state that voted for Michael Dukakis in 1988, to a swing state that was very close in 2000, to a state that has trended even more Democratic than the rest of the nation over the past four years. Eastern Washington, angry with Seattle liberals and environmentalists trying to protect the spotted owl, turned violently against the Democrats in the 1990’s. However, Seattle is quite Democratic, and combined with Democratic trending Western Washington, the state is pretty Democratic on the whole.
Democrats had a good year in Washington State in 2008. The state continued its leftward trend at the Presidential level, giving Barack Obama a huge 17 point victory. Considering that the state had been considered a potential "swing state" just eight years before, one can see how far Washington has moved to the left. Democratic Governor Gregoire also won a comfortable victory over Republican Dino Rossi, a race many Republicans had hoped to win. The one bit of good news for Republicans was that in WA-8, Republican Dave Reichert managed to hang onto his seat once again. Republican Rob McKenna also won an easy re-election as the state's Attorney General.
Washington will continue to be a safe state for Democrats. 2010 will be a quiet year for Washington state, with Patty Murray's Senate seat being the most significant office at stake.
President – 11 Electoral Votes
2000: Al Gore (D) 50%, George Bush (R) 45%
2004: John Kerry (D) 53%, Pres. George Bush (R) 46%
2008: Barack Obama (D) 57%, John McCain (R) 40%
Washington state continued its trend away from the Republican Party at the national level in 2008. In many ways, Barack Obama was an ideal candidate for the state. He had immense appeal among the state's many young, liberal and environmentally oriented voters in Seattle. Moreover, President Bush's policies in Iraq and social conservatism were particularly unpopular here.
While Washington state was often referred to as a "battleground state" in 2000, and even in 2004, there was never any doubt that Barack Obama would have a decisive win here in November. Even if the President's popularity is waning by 2012, he should still come out ahead in Washington state.
Governor – Christine Gregoire (D)
2000: Gov. Gary Locke (D) 58%, John Eric Carlson (R) 40%
2004: Christine Gregoire (D) 49%, Dino Rossi (R) 49%
2008: Gov. Christine Gregoire (D) 53%, Dino Rossi (R) 47%
After Democratic Governor Gregoire won in 2004 by only 129 votes after a disputed recount process, many Republicans were hopeful that a rematch in 2008 would yield a different result. All along, this was a close race, but Gregoire prevailed in the end. President Barack Obama's large victory surely helped Gregoire improve on her narrow 2004 win.
Looking toward 2012, the Democrats have a clear edge, though a Republican victory would not be impossible under the right circumstances. Attorney General Rob McKenna may be a strong candidate for Republicans.
Senior Senator – Patty Murray (D)
1992: Patty Murray (D) 54%, Rod Chandler (R) 46%
1998: Sen. Patty Murray (D) 58%, Linda Smith (R) 42%
2004: Sen. Patty Murray (D) 55%, George Nethercutt (R) 43%
Senator Murray is often underestimated, but her big win over strong opposition in 2004 indicates that she is probably invincible in this Democratic leaning state. She'll be a big favorite over her three most likely potential challengers, State Attorney General Rob McKenna and Representatives Cathy McMorris Rodgers and Dave Reichert. A recent Research 2000 poll confirmed Murray's strength against Reichert and McKenna - Murray held double digit leads over both men.
Junior Senator – Maria Cantwell (D)
1994: Sen. Slade Gorton (R) 56%, Ron Sims (D) 44%
2000: Maria Cantwell (D) 49%, Sen. Slade Gorton (R) 49%
2006: Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) 57%, Mike McGavick (R) 40%
Senator Cantwell has come a long way from winning election by 2,229 votes in 2000. Like Murray, she easily dispatched a strong challenge in 2006, and looks to be in strong shape. Barring an unforeseen turn of events, she should be secure for 2012.
House 1 – Jay Inslee (D)
2004: Rep. Jay Inslee (D) 62%, Randy Eastwood (R) 36%
2006: Rep. Jay Inslee (D) 68%, Larry Ishmael (R) 32%
2008: Rep. Jay Inslee (D) 68%, Larry Ishmael (R) 32%
Republicans would need a lot of breaks to win in this district. Inslee is in good shape for 2010.
House 2 – Rick Larsen (D)
2004: Rep. Rick Larsen (D) 64%, Suzanne Sinclair (R) 34%
2006: Rep. Rick Larsen (D) 64%, Doug Roulstone (R) 36%
2008: Rep. Rick Larsen (D) 62%, Rick Bart (R) 37%
While this district is not as solidly Democratic as Larsen's numbers might indicate, he has a good grip on the district.
House 3 – Brian Baird (D)
2004: Rep. Brian Baird (D) 62%, Thomas Crowson (R) 38%
2006: Rep. Brian Baird (D) 63%, Michael Messmore (R) 37%
2008: Rep. Brian Baird (D) 63%, Michael Delavar (R) 36%
This district mirrors the national average almost exactly, giving 48% and 50% for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 respectively. In 2008, it gave 52% to Barack Obama and 46% to John McCain. Baird has a moderate record and has become popular locally. He'll be tough to knock off. Republicans will have to do better than recent challengers if they want a shot here.
House 4 – Doc Hastings (R)
2004: Rep. Doc Hastings (R) 63%, Sandy Matheson (D) 37%
2006: Rep. Doc Hastings (R) 60%, Richard Wright (D) 40%
2008: Rep. Doc Hastings (R) 63%, George Fearing (D) 37%
This safe Republican district shows that Republicans can survive in blue states.
House 5 – Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R)
2004: Cathy McMorris (R) 60%, Don Barbieri (D) 40%
2006: Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) 56%, Peter Goldmark (D) 44%
2008: Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) 65%, Mark Mays (D) 35%
This is another very tough district for Democrats.
House 6 – Norm Dicks (D)
2004: Rep. Norm Dicks (D) 69%, Doug Cloud (R) 31%
2006: Rep. Norm Dicks (D) 71%, Doug Cloud (R) 29%
2006: Rep. Norm Dicks (D) 67%, Doug Cloud (R) 33%
Dicks is firmly entrenched in this Democratic leaning seat.
House 7 – Jim McDermott (D)
2004: Rep. Jim McDermott (D) 81%, Carol Cassady (R) 19%
2006: Rep. Jim McDermott (D) 79%, Steve Beren (R) 16%
2006: Rep. Jim McDermott (D) 87%, Steve Beren (R) 16%
This is one of the most Democratic seats in the nation, which explains the presence of someone as liberal as McDermott.
House 8 – Dave Reichert (R)
2004: Rep. Dave Reichert (R) 52%, Dave Ross (D) 47%
2006: Rep. Dave Reichert (R) 51%, Darcy Burner (D) 49%
2008: Rep. Dave Reichert (R) 53%, Darcy Burner (D) 47%
Reichert, a former Sheriff who helped apprehend Gary Ridgway, has one of the coolest backgrounds in Congress. This probably helped him survive in this Bellevue based suburban Seattle swing seat in 2006 and 2008.
This district has trended toward the Democrats and gave Barack Obama a healthy win. However, David Reichert has repeatedly fended off difficult challengers. Since Reichert weathered the GOP storms of 2006 and 2008, one has to give him the edge for 2010. If Reichert were to challenge Patty Murray for her Senate seat, WA-8 would be a prime pickup opportunity for House Democrats.
House 9 – Adam Smith (D)
2004: Rep. Adam Smith (D) 63%, Paul Lord (R) 34%
2006: Rep. Adam Smith (D) 66%, Steven Cofchin (R) 34%
2006: Rep. Adam Smith (D) 66%, James Postma (D) 54%
Smith should have an easy time in this Democratic leaning district.
Thursday, March 5, 2009
A Look At Some Competitive House Races
The Hill weighs in with an article detailing some House races that will see strong rematches or challenges in 2010. These include Idaho's first district where Democrat Walt Minnick won a narrow victory over Republican Rep. Bill Sali, Hawaii's first district where Republicans might actually have a shot at an open seat, and a few California races including potentially weak Republican incumbents.
NOTE: While this article spotlights some interesting races, it does not necessarily focus on seats most likely to change hands in 2010. For example, the article does not discuss Republican Rep. Ahn Cao (LA-2), who is probably the most likely incumbent to lose his or her seat in 2010. Additionally, it does not include other districts that could be potentially very competitive, such as OH-15 and NJ-7, two districts that Beyond The Polls covered extensively in 2010.
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
State Of The Day - Virginia
After voting for every Republican for President since 1964, Virginia gave its electoral votes to Barack Obama in 2008. Obama's win was the latest in a series of successes for Virginia Democrats. While Virginia is by no means a solid "blue" state, President Obama proved that Democrats can win there fairly decisively under the right circumstances. Demographic trends have certainly helped Democrats in the state, especially in the metropolitan Washington DC suburbs. Over the past decade, Northern Virginia has filled rapidly with government employees and high income private sector workers. This population has made Northern Virginia quite Democratic. Northern Virginia is balanced by the rest of the state, which tends to be Republican.
Virginia's Democrats bottomed out in 1999-2000, when they lost the state legislature and Republican George Allen knocked off Democratic Senator Charles Robb. However, since then, the Democrats have made quite a comeback. It began in 2001 with Mark Warner winning the Governor's Mansion. Taking advantage of unpopular Republican Governor Jim Gilmore, Warner assiduously courted rural Virginia and won a rather broad based, if not sweeping victory. As Governor, Warner completely divided Virginia Republicans over a tax reform plan, creating a breach between conservatives and moderates that exists to this day. That division helped Tim Kaine essentially duplicate Warner’s victory in 2005 and Democrats capture the State Senate in 2007.
2008 was a good year for Virginia Democrats. Mark Warner won a decisive Senate victory in his campaign against former Republican Governor Jim Gilmore and Democrats unexpectedly picked up two House seats. While Republicans have had little luck here in recent election cycles, the 2010 gubernatorial election provides Republicans a real shot of regaining the Governors' Mansion.
President – 13 Electoral Votes
2000: George Bush (R) 52%, Al Gore (D) 44%
2004: Pres. George Bush (R) 54%, John Kerry (D) 45%
2008: Barack Obama (D) 53%, John McCain (R) 46%
At the Presidential level, Virginia saw a sixteen point swing in just four years. 2004 saw a nine point win for President George W. Bush, whereas Sen. Barack Obama won by seven points. This rapid change reflects a slower, more gradual change that has happened over the last several years, as northern Virginia has slowly become more and more Democratic. Even though most of the state remains fairly Republican, the growing Democratic suburbs in northern Virginia mean that the state is no longer safe for Republican Presidential candidates.
President Obama won Virginia because he did substantially better than John Kerry did in 2004 among white voters. For example, President Bush won 73% of white men and 65% of white women in 2004. In 2008, John McCain only won 62% of white men and 60% of white women. This gave Obama a huge boost. Moreover, while the proportion of African-American voters was about the same as in 2004, Obama won the votes of a higher percentage of these voters than John Kerry had in 2004.
While Obama showed that a Democrat can win in Virginia, it's no sure thing in future election cycles. There is no doubt that both parties will heavily focus on Virginia in 2012. For Republicans, the state is essential to reaching 270 electoral votes. For Democrats, winning in Virginia would help to put the nail in the coffin of any Republican nominee. Virginia will be a state to watch in 2012.
Governor – Tim Kaine (D)
1997: Jim Gilmore (R) 56%, Don Beyer (D) 43%
2001: Mark Warner (D) 52%, Mark Earley (R) 47%
2005: Tim Kaine (D) 52%, Jerry Kilgore (R) 46%
Governor Kaine cannot run for reelection, as Virginia is the last state where Governors cannot succeed themselves. The Republicans have united behind former Attorney General Bob McDonnell, who recently resigned from his office to be a full time candidate.
The Democratic field is anything but settled. Three Democrats - conservative Democratic State Senator Creigh Deeds, the more liberal State Delegate Brian Moran, and former DNC chairman Terry McAuliffe will face one another in a June 9, 2009 primary. McAuliffe's biggest advantage is that he can raise enormous amounts of money, though McAuliffe's fundraising is already drawing criticisms from the other candidates. Brian Moran recently said that "We need a fighter, not a fundraiser."
A recent poll by Public Policy Polling (PPP) showed McAuliffe narrowly ahead, with 21% of the vote. Moran received 18% and Deeds received 14%. There is plenty of time for this race to develop, and it already seems like it could get nasty. Will Democrats choose a nominee without in-fighting that will greatly hurt their chances in November? That remains to be seen.
Right now, the overall race looks like a toss up. McAuliffe's strength is his fundraising, but it could prompt a backlash. State Democrats may prefer to see one of their own receive the nomination. Republicans may have an edge here, with a unified party. National Republicans also realize that winning this race is crucial and they will surely pour resources into this race. McDonnell has already received visits from prominent Republicans and this will likely continue through November.
Senior Senator – John Warner (R)
1996: Sen. John Warner (R) 52%, Mark Warner (D) 47%
2002: Sen. John Warner (R) unopposed
2008: Mark Warner (D) 65%, James Gilmore (R) 34%
This race was never a contest. Mark Warner totally destroyed former Republican Governor James Gilmore, whose political career is likely over. Warner's popularity and ability to win in a fairly conservative state have always led political commentators to float his name as a potential President candidate. Will Warner continue to be a moderate in the Senate? We shall see, but for now, it looks like Warner will be a strong candidate for re-election in 2014.
Junior Senator – Jim Webb (D)
1994: Sen. Charles S. Robb (D) 46%, Oliver North (R) 43%
2000: George Allen (R) 52%, Sen. Charles S. Robb (D) 48%
2006: Jim Webb (D) 50%, Sen. George Allen (R) 49%
Senator Webb has one advantage when he runs for reelection in 2012 - demographic trends have made the state more Democratic. In 2008, Virginia showed that it can elect Democrats by decent margins - even liberal ones - with the election of Barack Obama. At the same time, Webb should have a major challenge. There is also a serious possibility that liberals will be tired of Webb by 2012, given his social conservatism and interesting ideas on foreign policy. For example, Webb has recently come out in favor of offshore drilling for natural gas, something his more liberal colleagues have opposed. Webb may be a slight favorite as of now, but he will almost certainly face a major challenge. In many ways, Webb's 2012 fate could be tied to the success or failure of President Obama.
House 1 – Rob Wittman (R)
2004: Rep. Jo Ann Davis (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Jo Ann Davis (R) 63%, Shawn O’Donnell (D) 35%
2007 special: Rob Wittman (R) 61%, Philip Forgit (D) 37%
2008: Rep. Rob Wittman (R) 57%, Bill Day, Jr. (D) 42%
Pretty much everything would need to go right for Democrats to win this seat. Despite Democratic advantages in 2008, they still did not come close to unseating Wittman.
House 2 – Thelma Drake (R)
2004: Thelma Drake (R) 55%, David Ashe (D) 45%
2006: Rep. Thelma Drake (R) 51%, Phil Kellam (D) 48%
2008: Glenn Nye (D) 52%, Rep. Thelma Drake (R) 48%
Glenn Nye managed to win an upset in this district, defeating the incumbent Republican, Thelma Drake. Given her survival against a strong challenge in 2006, it looked like Drake would hang on for another victory. What happened? Nye surely benefited from having President Barack Obama at the top of the ticket. Obama's fairly large win in the state likely gave Nye the nudge he needed to defeat Drake.
Nye will almost certainly face a strong challenge here in 2012. We currently rate this as a Toss Up that leans toward the Republican challenger.
House 3 – Bobby Scott (D)
2002: Rep. Bobby Scott (D) unopposed
2004: Rep. Bobby Scott (D) 69%, Winsome Sears (R) 31%
2006: Rep. Bobby Scott (D) unopposed
This African-American majority district poses no threat to Democrats.
House 4 – Randy Forbes (R)
2004: Rep. Randy Forbes (R) 64%, Jonathan Menefee (D) 35%
2006: Rep. Randy Forbes (R) unopposed
2008: Rep. Randy Forbes (R) 60%, Andrea Miller (D) 40%
This is a Republican leaning seat that should re-elect Forbes in 2010.
House 5 – Virgil Goode (R)
2004: Rep. Virgil Goode (R) 64%, Al Weed (D) 36%
2006: Rep. Virgil Goode (R) 59%, Al Weed (D) 40%
2008: Tom Perriello (D) 50.1%, Rep. Virgil Goode (R) 49.9%
This is the second seat that Democrats unexpectedly picked up in 2008. This is a Republican leaning Southern Virginia seat, which includes Charlottesville, Bedford, South Boston, Martinsville, and Danville.
This was one of the closest House races in the country in 2008. Goode initially refused to concede, but eventually realized could not overcome Perriello's 700+ vote lead. Goode hurt himself by sticking his foot in his mouth and making stupid comments (see his comments about Muslim Rep. Keith Ellison). Perriello surely benefited from a good performance by President Obama in this district, as well.
This district should be a prime target for Republicans in 2010. A solid Republican candidate would have an excellent chance of retaking this seat. For now, we rate this as a toss up that leans toward a Republican takeover.
House 6 – Bob Goodlatte (R)
2004: Rep. Bob Goodlatte (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Bob Goodlatte (R) unopposed
2008: Rep. Bob Goodlatte (R) 62%, Sam Rasoul (D) 37%
Goodlatte is very safe in this district.
House 7 – Eric Cantor (R)
2004: Rep. Eric Cantor (R) unopposed
2006: Rep. Eric Cantor (R) 64%, James Nachman (D) 34%
2008: Rep. Eric Cantor (R) 63%, Anita Hartke (D) 37%
Cantor, a rising GOP star, cruised to victory against Democrat Anita Hartke in this overwhelmingly Republican district. Cantor received much credit for uniting House Republicans against President Obama's stimulus bill. We will likely be seeing a lot more of Cantor in the future.
House 8 – Jim Moran (D)
2004: Rep. Jim Moran (D) 60%, Lisa Marie Cheney (R) 37%
2006: Rep. Jim Moran (D) 66%, Tom O’Donoghue (R) 31%
2008: Rep. Jim Moran (D) 68%, Mark Ellmore (R) 30%
This has seat has become out of reach to Republicans, especially since Moran has learned to avoid controversy. As you can see, the trends are moving in the wrong direction for the GOP.
House 9 – Rick Boucher (D)
2004: Rep. Rick Boucher (D) 59%, Kevin Triplett (R) 39%
2006: Rep. Rick Boucher (D) 68%, Charles Carrico (R) 32%
2008: Rep. Rick Boucher (D) unopposed
This is a tough district for Democrats, but Boucher has entrenched himself locally. Will Republicans even bother to field a candidate in 2010? In an anti-Democratic year, the Republicans would have a shot of unseating Boucher. For now, he is a solid favorite for 2010.
House 10 – Frank Wolf (R)
2004: Rep. Frank Wolf (R) 64%, James Socas (D) 36%
2006: Rep. Frank Wolf (R) 57%, Judy Feder (D) 41%
2008: Rep. Frank Wolf (R) 59%, Judy Feder (D) 39%
The Republican Wolf is pretty moderate and locally popular. Feder was a credible candidate and still failed to crack 40%. Wolf should have nothing to worry about.
House 11 – Tom Davis (R)
2004: Rep. Tom Davis (R) 60%, Ken Longmyer (D) 38%
2006: Rep. Tom Davis (R) 55%, Andrew Hurst (R) 44%
2008: Gerald Connolly (D) 55%, Keith Fimian (D) 43%
This Fairfax based district is quickly becoming more Democratic. Under the right circumstances, a Republican could win here, but Connolly is the odds on favorite for 2010.