State of the Day - Montana

Montana remains a wide open, mostly empty state. It was mostly passed over on trails to the west coast and remains a state very close to nature. The original economy here focused on mining, making this a rather radical and pro-union state. Mining mostly ended after 1920, and agriculture and ranching became the main industries. In recent years the state has become a favorite of wealthy individuals with second homes and communications technology has allowed nature loving entreprenuers to build businesses here. There is a consensus on protecting the state's natural beauty. Until the mid-2000's. the state's libertarian leanings have made it a mostly Republican state. Thanks in large part to missteps by Montana Republicans, Democrats have dominated recent state races and Barack Obama lost here by only three points.

We do not yet know whether Montana will continue its Democratic trend or whether Republicans have hit bottom. We do know that we will not find out the answer to this question in 2010. With no gubernatorial or Senate race, and with popular Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg facing no challenge in what looks like a bad Democratic year, Montana may be the quietest state in the country this election.

President – 3 Electoral Votes

Barack Obama polled surprisingly well here for all of 2008, and by the end was actively targeting Montana. He still fell short, losing 50-47. I suspect that the events since then have probably put the kibosh on his chances of winning Montana in 2012, however.

Montana Republicans tried a Super Tuesday caucus in 2008, which was ignored. They are going back to a June 5 primary, which will also be ignored. If there was a contest, the state would seem tailor made for Senator John Thune. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Brian Schweitzer (D)

Schweitzer cannot run for reelection in 2012. Ronald Lassle has already announced his candidacy for the Democratic nomination. Attorney General Steve Bullock, Transportation Director Jim Lynch, and State Senator Dave Wanzenried are also mulling candidacies. Bullock would probably be the strongest candidate. Rep. Denny Rehberg would probably clear the field of both parties if he ran. If he passes, relative unknowns Steve Daines and Neil Livingstone have already expressed interest in the Republican nomination. Other potential candidates are State Senators Jim Peterson and Bob Story, former State Senator Ken Miller, Dean Folkword, and former Rep. Rick Hill. Former State Senator Corey Stapleton is already in the race. Given the current environment, Republicans would hold an edge even though Schweitzer is popular. If Rehberg runs, this will probably be a cakewalk. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Max Baucus (D)

Baucus first won election to the Senate in 1978, when Rocky Mountain states routinely sent liberals like Frank Church and Gary Hart to the Senate. By the late 1990’s, Baucus was the last Rocky Mountain Democrat left, and after getting a mere 50% in 1996, he seemed to be a short timer. He dodged a bullet in 2002 by drawing a complete wackjob for an opponent, and has become more secure as Montana Democrats have recovered. He won 73% against another odd candidate in 2008. Republicans may just have to wait Baucus out. He comes up for reelection in 2014. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

Junior Senator – Jon Tester (D)

Tester won in 2006 by a little over 3,500 votes against a scandal tarred incumbent who had a foot-in-mouth problem. In this state, he should get a major contest in 2012. Rep. Denny Rehberg is apparently interested in a run, and he would be favored to beat Tester. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House At-Large – Denny Rehberg (R)

Seemingly the only Montana Republican not to undergo a meltdown in the last decade, Rehberg will cruise against Democrat Dennis McDonald. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House Predictons: 1 Republican…NO CHANGE