State of the Day - Nebraska

On fall Saturdays at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, a giant human sea of red goes all out for the Cornhuskers. This sea of red also serves as an apt description of Nebraska politics. However, Nebraska does have a habit of electing Democratic Governors who cut taxes and then go onto a career in the Senate: Jim Exon, Bob Kerrey, and now Ben Nelson. Aside from that, Democrats do not do much here. They did have a breakthrough of sorts in 2008, when Barack Obama narrowly carried the Second Congressional District, taking one electoral vote in accordance with state law. Even then, however, the Democrats could not win the House race there, let alone come close to capturing an open Senate seat.

2010 will be a quiet, status quo year in Nebraska. Governor Dave Heineman will win reelection easily. Democrats are continuing their perennial quest to knock off Rep. Lee Terry, but have no chance of actually doing so.

President – 5 Electoral Votes

Nebraska will never vote for the Democratic candidate for President. However, it does split its Electoral Votes. It gives two votes to the statewide winner and one vote to the winner of each Congressional district. Against all odds, Barack Obama won an electoral vote by winning the 2nd District by 3,370 votes. This was actually a victory for campaign organization, as based on normal patterns we would not expect to see that unless the Republican dropped below 56% statewide (McCain got 57%). The whole exercise is irrelevant to the larger picture. If that vote is in reach, the Democrats won elsewhere. Just for reference, the Republican would need to drop to about 53% for the Democrat to win the First District, and the Democrat would need to win about 60% statewide to take the Third District. It seems likely the Republican will pick up all five votes in 2012.

Nebraska’s May 15 primary almost certainly will not matter, but if it did, I would give the edge to a more socially conservative candidate (i.e. anyone over Mitt Romney). John Thune might have a regional neighbor advantage. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Dave Heineman (R)

Heineman remains popular and in defeating legendary football coach Tom Osborne in the 2006 primary, has already won the toughest election he will ever face. A July Rasmussen poll showed Heineman leading Democrat Mike Meister by 71-18. This is the definition of no contest. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Prediction: Gov. Heineman (R) 76%, Meister (D) 23%

Senior Senator – Ben Nelson (D)

Nelson lives in perpetual fear of running in a big Republican year. Despite being a popular governor from 1991-1999, Nelson lost a Senate race to a then unknown Chuck Hagel in 1996. He barely beat a rather unappealing Republican in 2000. He finally won big in 2006, but that was against a nobody in a big Democratic year. His vote for health care reform really put a dent in his public standing in Nebraska. One poll showed Governor Heineman leading him 61-30. Heineman is unlikely to run, however, having once described his interest in the Senate as “negative 1000 and dropping” on a scale of one to ten. Nelson would have no more than a slight edge over Reps. Jeff Fortenberry, Lee Terry, or Adrian Smith in even the best of circumstances. If none of them runs, he’d have a decided edge. However, if 2012 shapes up like 2010, Nelson is almost assuredly finished. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

Junior Senator – Mike Johanns (R)

I fail to see any scenario in which Johanns could be even remotely vulnerable. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – Jeff Fortenberry (R)

Democrat Ivy Harper can shut it down and go home. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Lee Terry (R)

Democrats have eagerly talked up their chances against Terry in this Republican leaning Omaha district for several cycles now. Democrat Tom White is taking his shot this year as an “independent voice for Nebraska.” Translation: please ignore my party identification. He talks up “bipartisanship”, generally ignores his party’s Congressional agenda, and rips Terry for supporting Social Security “privatization.” There is nothing about any of this that will encourage non-Democrats to vote for White, which pretty much spells doom for his campaign. Terry knows this, and is suitably playing up White’s party identification.

Democrats got 48% here in 2008, but that was in a great Democratic year with a Presidential candidate who actually targeted the district and worked hard to maximize Democratic turnout. In 2010 with President Obama nowhere to be seen, how do the Democrats improve on that? LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – Adrian Smith (R)

This district will totally depopulate before it elects a Democrat. The Democratic nominee, Rebekah Davis, has no chance. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House Predictions: 3 Republicans…NO CHANGE.