State of the Day - California

California is the nation’s biggest state and has a little bit of everything, including all sorts of public policy problems. The state filled up fast after the discovery of gold in 1849, and continued to grow throughout the nineteenth century thanks in large part of Chinese immigration. Originally agricultural, it built great metropolitan areas and really came into its own during World War II and its aftermath. Big government projects built California through defense industry, infrastructure, and universities, but California also nurtured entrepreneurs and small business. A heavily Republican (if liberally oriented) state for its first century, California became Democratic through the growth of unions after World War II. It trended Republican from the mid-1960’s through the 1980’s, though it was rarely reliably anything, electing Ronald Reagan governor in 1966 and 1970 only to elect the diametrically opposed Jerry Brown to replace him in 1974 and 1978. California began to trend back toward the Democrats in the late 80’s and 1990’s and slowly became less business friendly. White conservatives have left and been replaced by a polyglot of immigrants, making California an incredibly diverse state. The new immigrants have combined with coastal liberals to create a majority coalition for the Democrats. An ever smaller Republican Party became more conservative, and less competitive. Still, high taxes, a disastrous budgetary situation, and electricity shortages caused a backlash against Democratic Governor Gray Davis in 2003. Davis was recalled and replaced with Arnold Schwarzenegger, a very famous but not particularly conservative Republican. When he tried to force conservative ballot propositions through, he lost. He won reelection in 2006 only by moving to the left and accepting tax increases. Republicans maintain a sizable base in the interior part of the state, but are routinely outvoted by Coastal California. The state has huge disparities in income, especially in Coastal California, but so far the affluent liberal/poor minority coalition holds for Democrats. Interior California is more like a Rocky Mountain state, and like neighbors Nevada and Arizona, had serious problems with the housing crash and trended heavily toward the Democrats in 2008. Still, the state’s high taxes and unsustainable budget make the current political lineup potentially unstable. Meanwhile, as traffic worsens and the price of housing is unaffordable for many citizens, California passes laws to limit carbon emissions and restrict growth. For these reasons, the future of California politics may be more wide open than it appears at first glance.

2010 could be the beginning of a new era. California’s dysfunctional government has seen the state approach insolvency, which has reflected badly on the Democrats as well as liberal Republican Governor Schwarzenegger. Combined with the national mood, Republicans have real hopes of keeping (or conservatives might say “winning”) the Governor’s Mansion and defeating Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer. Luckily for Democrats, a severe gerrymandering plan should keep them from losing a significant number of, if any, House seats.

President – 55 Electoral Votes

California is not totally out of reach for Republicans. It will not be competitive if the election is even remotely close, however. While a Democrat obviously cannot win the election without California, if he loses it he will have already lost the election. It would be more like the cherry on top of the ice cream of a big Republican victory. The way Obama is going, right now it would be a very competitive state. If that remains true in 2012, Obama will have no shot at winning the election.

California’s Super Tuesday primary will obviously be very important. The hugeness of the state gives a big advantage to frontrunners and those with organization and money. Thus, I think Mitt Romney could, should, and needs to do well here. I’d rank the contenders as 1. Romney, 2. Palin, 3. Thune, 4. Pawlenty, 5. Gingrich. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

Governor – Arnold Schwarzenegger (R)

Schwarzenegger finds himself term limited back to Hollywood having totally and utterly failed to stop the rot and budgetary madness that defines the current state of California politics. Despite the excitement that attended his bizarre succession to office, he has proved that the problems are systemic and go beyond any one person.

Nevertheless, two people with very different backgrounds are vying for this impossible job. Democrats have nominated state Attorney General Jerry Brown. Yes, that’s the same Jerry Brown who served as “Governor Moonbeam” from 1975-1983 and ran an angry long shot campaign for President in 1992. Just getting to this point represents a remarkable political achievement. Brown’s main argument is that he is an “elder statesman” with the experience necessary to deal with the state’s problems, but also a touch of the new perspective that voters say is needed. Meanwhile, Republicans had a competitive primary and nominated a complete political outsider, the former E-Bay CEO Meg Whitman. She is aggressively self-funding her campaign and running as an outsider. According to her, politicians have run the state into the ground. She can streamline state government and create jobs. She is also running as a social moderate, hoping to attract Democrats fed up with the state’s dysfunction.

Whitman led throughout most of the summer, touting her outsider bona fides and spending an ungodly amount of money. Brown has only recently gone on the air and has benefited from doing so, moving ahead in polling in the past four weeks. Whitman suffers from a personality deficit, and also suffered recently from revelations that she once employed an illegal immigrant (a fact leaked by noted liberal attorney Gloria Allred). Brown definitely leads at this point and Whitman is heading in the wrong direction. Given the state’s Democratic tilt, I have to give Brown the edge. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

Prediction: Brown (D) 52%, Whitman (R) 48%

Senior Senator – Dianne Feinstein (D)

Feinstein has a better reputation beyond the Democratic base than her more liberal colleague Barbara Boxer. Thus, she should be okay even if 2012 is a ridiculously Republican year. California is generally a good state for incumbents due to the prohibitive cost of running a statewide election. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

Junior Senator – Barbara Boxer (D)

At the time of her first election in 1992, it seemed unlikely that someone as liberal as Boxer could enjoy a three term career without serious electoral challenge. Yet, as California has moved to the left she has managed to do just that.

Her good fortune appeared to be changing. Republicans nominated their more perceived moderate candidate, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina. However, Fiorina moved to the right enough during the primary where she now appears too liberal for this state. She can remain financially competitive with Boxer as she gets national attention and adds to the $10 million she has already spent on her campaign. Fiorina hopes by providing a credible alternative to Boxer she can win enough independents and moderate Democrats fed up with Boxer’s liberal politics and the national Democratic Party.

I said in this space two months ago that for Fiorina to win voters, they would have to reject Boxer AND find Fiorina a good alternative. They may be willing to reject Boxer, who has generally polled just under 50%. However, the second part does not appear to be working for Fiorina. As Boxer has attacked her, Fiorina has gone down in the polls. Fiorina is hamstrung by some of her conservative positions on social issues and an arguably unsuccessful tenure as CEO of Hewlett-Packard. She is also not a particularly appealing candidate. She will really need to catch fire to win this race in this state, and as of now I do not see any evidence that this will happen. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

Prediction: Sen. Boxer (D) 53%, Fiorina (R) 47%

House 1 – Mike Thompson (D)

This is a safe Democratic seat and Republican challenger Loren Hanks is not going to start a revolution. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 2 – Wally Herger (R)

Herger is not the best Republican performer but the district is not winnable for Democrat James Reed. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – Dan Lungren (R)

Lungren failed to get 50% in this Republican leaning suburban Sacramento district last time. He faces a serious challenge from physician Ami Bera, who has outraised the incumbent. Bera is attempting to run on an outsider’s platform against Lungren, a longtime California officeholder and public figure.

The dynamics of the current environment really should put this out of play, but Lungren continues to look like he is actually in trouble. Bera is using his fundraising advantage to hit Lungren over his insider status and perceived corruption. He has attacked Lungren for ethical lapses and hypocritically getting money in the stimulus package that he claims to oppose.

The amazing thing here that is unlike almost every Democrat in this cycle, Bera is not running away from his party. Lungren just simply can’t seem to get his act in gear. This is a legitimately competitive race now, and it really should not be. I still like Lungren to win because of the political climate, but he looks in trouble going forward. If he loses, Bera should think about running again. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House 4 – Tom McClintock (R)

McClintock is a hero to California conservatives, but he nearly became a goat in 2008 when he won this safe Republican seat by a mere 1,800 votes. On paper, this result would seem to ensure that McClintock had competition. Democrat Clint Curtis does not seem to be taking this campaign seriously, however, and McClintock is very likely to win another term. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 5 – Doris Matsui (D)

There isn’t a Republican tsunami this big. Republican Paul Smith has less than $500 cash on hand. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 6 – Lynn Woolsey (D)

Republican Jim Judd will win this heavily Democratic seat about the same time that Mel Gibson wins the Man of the Year Award from the Anti-Defamation League. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 7 – George Miller (D)

Republican Rick Tubbs has about as much of a shot here as LeBron James does of winning an election for Mayor of Cleveland. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 8 – Nancy Pelosi (D)

This seems fitting. According to her June 30 FEC report, Pelosi has spent more money this cycle than she has raised and has a mere $214,046 case on hand. Republican John Dennis has predictably raised a fair sum of money, but it will do no good in one of the most Democratic districts in the country. Local Democrats are almost certainly preparing for a Spring 2011 special election in case Pelosi resigns after a Republican takeover of the House. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 9 – Barbara Lee (D)

Republicans probably dream of winning this seat. Orioles and Pirates fans also dream of seeing their teams in the World Series. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 10 – John Garamendi (D)

This is a safe Democratic district, but Garamendi was just unimpressive enough in winning this seat in the November special election to replace Ellen Tauscher to leave the door open for a challenge. Republican Gary Clift is too anemic to actually win the seat, however. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 11 – Jerry McNerney (D)

Some pundits referred to this as a “heavily Republican seat” when McNerney won it from ethically challenged Richard Pombo in 2006. In reality, this Eastern Bay Area seat is a prime swing district. George W. Bush won 54% here in 2004 but Barack Obama won the district with 54% in 2008.

Republicans have nominated businessman David Harmer. The challenger ran and lost in the November special election in the 10th district to John Garamendi. He also ran and lost a race for a House seat in Utah in 1996 to Merrill Cook, one of the more personally odious Members of Congress of the past fifty years. Needless to say, this leads to some questions about whether Harmer is a quality candidate. He is definitely a very conservative candidate. Harmer has a history of promoting school vouchers and is running as a balanced budget, no tax increases, economic conservative.

The FEC reports say that Harmer has outraised McNerney, but this is misleading because it includes the fundraising from the special election in the 10th District, which also occurred in this cycle. Between that and the primary, McNerney has about a $1 million cash on hand advantage.

McNerney’s problem is that he has hitched his wagon to Barack Obama, proudly touting his support of the health care bill (though less so now than he was early in the year). This is not a positive in a middle of the road district. Harmer is a flawed candidate, but McNerney is the sort of Representative that will drown in a Republican wave. This looks like a seat the Democrats will hold if they lose only 25-30 seats, but which Republicans will almost have to win to take back the House. It looks like the Republicans will pick up well more than 30 seats, and in that case I can’t see McNerney surviving. Harmer’s problems aside, this is a tossup. An August Republican poll showed Harmer up one point. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 12 – Jackie Speier (D)

Speier survived Jonestown. I don’t think she’s scared of underfunded Republicans. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 13 – Pete Stark (D)

Battlin’ Pete Stark will roll over another tomato can. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 14 – Anna Eshoo (D)

Another safe Bay Area district for the Democrats. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 15 – Mike Honda (D)

I’d be curious to know how Republican Scott Kirkland plans on spending the $3,137 he has on hand. Scott, talk to us!!! May I suggest Blue Moon. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 16 – Zoe Lofgren (D)

Next. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 17 – Sam Farr (D)

Republican Jeff Taylor has spent four times as much as the $1,368 he has raised. I guess he isn’t running on fiscal conservatism. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 18 – Dennis Cardoza (D)

Unlike the previous twelve districts, this district merely leans Democratic, having narrowly supported George W. Bush in 2004 before giving Obama 59%. Republicans oddly did not run anybody against Cardoza in 2008. This time, Republican Mike Berryhill, a longtime local farmer and Turlock Irrigation District Board Member, is challenging Cardoza. Berryhill is aggressively attacking Cardoza for supporting the health care bill. He is also emphasizing local issues and making a big deal of accusing Cardoza of selling out Central Valley water storage rights to environmentalists’ agenda. Beyond that, he is running as a fiscal conservative.

Berryhill has raised just under $300,000, enough to warrant more than a passing mention but not enough to win. Berryhill has also gotten in hot water by failing to file required FEC reports, which almost certainly get him fined. Cardoza is busy touting his plan to forestall foreclosures, which seems to be Barack Obama’s theme of the week. This looks like a race that could be close if this is a historically great Republican year (think 70-80 seat GOP pickup). Otherwise, the Blue Dog stalwart Cardoza should be safe. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 19 – George Radanovich (R)

Radanovich is retiring. This Central California seat would be a reach for Democrats under the best of circumstances. It is a safe seat in 2010. Republican State Senator Jeff Denham will clobber underfunded Democrat Loraine Goodwin. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 20 – Jim Costa (D)

Costa has racked up three impressive electoral performances in this Fresno based seat, turning a Democratic leaning seat into safe Democratic territory. However, all bets are off in a year like 2010. Republican nominee Andy Vidak is somewhat underfunded, but a recent SurveyUSA poll had Costa ahead by a mere 48-46.

Costa just went on the air recently, which should help him. Costa has also gotten positive publicity for helping to settle a local water rights dispute. Vidak has not shown much thus far and the NRCC is still sitting this one out. In a year like 2010 it is very possible that Vidak could win. Still, I tend to think the performance of the local incumbent matters, and that is why I still like Costa to win reelection. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 21 – Devin Nunes (R)

Nunes is effectively unopposed in this heavily Republican district. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 22 – Kevin McCarthy (R)

Ditto, except McCarthy is actually unopposed. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 23 – Lois Capps (D)

Capps has credible opposition in Thomas Watson but this is not a district Republicans can win. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 24 – Elton Gallegly (R)

Democrat Timothy Allison may have a shot in a good Democratic year, but this is not that year. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 25 – Buck McKeon (R)

Democrat Jackie Conaway took 42% in 2008 despite spending almost no money. She will get far less of the vote spending no money this time. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 26 – David Dreier (R)

Dreier is a bigwig among House Republicans, but this is actually a pretty marginal seat. Democrat Russ Warner is back for another try after holding Dreier to a 53-40 win in 2008. Warner has less money and less chance this time. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 27 – Brad Sherman (D)

Republican Mark Reed is the Clipper to Sherman’s Laker. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 28 – Howard Berman (D)

Republican Eric Froy is the Detroit Lions to Howard Berman’s New England Patriots. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 29 – Adam Schiff (D)

Republican John Colbert is not related to Stephen. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 30 – Henry Waxman (D)

Republican David Benning would probably be subpoenaed if he had an actual chance. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 31 – Xavier Becerra (D)

Republican Stephen Smith is not the obnoxious ESPN personality. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 32 – Judy Chu (D)

Snooze. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 33 – Diane Watson (D)

The pedestrian Watson is retiring. As this district gave Obama 87%, her decision makes no real difference. Democrat Karen Bass will be the new Representative. Republican James Andion is just a name. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 34 – Lucille Roybal-Allard (D)

Roybal-Allard. Two names. One Democrat. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 35 – Maxine Waters (D)

Waters can face all the ethical charges in the world, and it wouldn’t do jack squat for Republican Bruce Brown. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 36 – Jane Harman (D)

Republican Mattie Fein’s chances aren’t so fein. In fact, on November 2nd she’ll probably find herself on the Mattie. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 37 – Laura Richardson (D)

Richardson has all sorts of ethical and personal problems. This has encouraged a serious Republican opponent in Star Parker, but it is all for naught in this overwhelmingly Democratic district. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 38 – Grace Napolitano (D)

I’m too tired for another bad joke. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 39 – Linda Sanchez (D)

Perhaps Republican Larry Andre can discuss the incumbent’s sex life, since she appears to enjoy discussing it. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 40 – Ed Royce (R)

This is a pretty Republican seat anyway, but Royce has nailed it down. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 41 – Jerry Lewis (R)

Democrats could not come close to Lewis despite major ethical troubles and a big Democratic wind. Democrat Pat Meagher has, well, a meager $325. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 42 – Gary Miller (R)

Miller has found himself in a very similar situation to Lewis. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 43 – Joe Baca (D)

Baca is safe. Republican Scott Folkens might have enough cash to get from Rialto to catch a game at Angels Stadium. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 43 – Ken Calvert (R)

This Riverside seat naturally leans Republican, but Calvert nearly lost it in 2008 to underfunded Democrat Bill Hedrick. Hedrick is back and while he has more money this time, it is still below what most serious challengers have.

Calvert has mostly inflicted his problems on himself. In 1993, Calvert went through a nasty divorce after being caught in a car with a prostitute. He has continued ethical problems, mostly surrounding real estate purchase whose value he has enhanced with questionable earmarks. Even Fox News has gone after Calvert for earmark abuse. For good measure, Calvert reneged on a term limits pledge. If Republicans want voters to take them seriously, they will need to do better than shady characters like Ken Calvert. Calvert’s problems continue to make him vulnerable, but the Republican tide this year will probably get him one more term. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 45 – Mary Bono Mack (R)

This Riverside/Southeast California seat is one of the very few swing districts in California, although Bono Mack has generally run ahead of her party. She has a serious challenge this time from openly gay Palm Springs Mayor Steve Pougnet, who has been among the best Democratic challengers in terms of fundraising. The NRCC has shown enough concern to put Bono Mack in aid program for vulnerable incumbents.

Pougnet really should have run two years ago when Obama carried the district. This is the exact sort of district that voted for Obama but is looking likely to dump him in 2012. While his public statements on health care have been quite wishy-washy, Pougnet is generally supportive of the Obama agenda. He also ardently supports the stimulus act, which is widely reviled among independents. He has also caught some negative attention for an ad featuring school children chanting derogatory comments about Bono Mack. Despite his impressiveness as a candidate, this is not the sort of record that will win this district this year, especially against the stealth political effectiveness of Bono Mack. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 46 – Dana Rohrabacher (R)

Rohrabacher made himself onto some Democratic target lists with an unimpressive victory in 2008. The party is over for Democrats, however, and they were left nominating the less than formidable Ken Arnold. Rohrabacher will win. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 47 – Loretta Sanchez (D)

Sanchez faces a vigorous challenge in this Democratic leaning, Hispanic majority Orange County seat from Assemblyman Van Tran, who hopes to make the most out of the district’s 15% Asian population.

Tran has done enough to stay in the game thus far, but Sanchez is a formidable fundraiser and media presence with a moderate record and a long history of running way ahead of her party. The race has become quite racially tinged, with Sanchez cutting Spanish language advertisements accusing the Vietnamese of taking over the district. An August Republican poll from AAF/Ayers showed Sanchez up by a narrow 45-43. Tran has a chance, but I still like Sanchez based on her history of crossover appeal. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 48 – John Campbell (R)

Campbell has a moderately respectable challenge from Democratic Irvine City Councilman Beth Krom in this Republican leaning seat which gave Barack Obama a slim plurality. This is the sort of race that would have been interesting in the last two cycles, but not this time. Campbell is safe. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 49 – Darrell Issa (R)

Coming to Congress in 2000 as a self-promoting car alarm magnate, Issa has matured into one of the Republican Party’s most thoughtful and impressive figures of substance. His opponent, Howard Katz, describes Issa as “The Audacity of Nope”. That’s an interesting tack for a safe Republican district that gave John McCain 53%. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 50 – Brian Bilbray (R)

Blibray has compiled a moderate record but only got 50% in 2008 in what you often see referred to as a “Republican stronghold.” It’s actually a very competitive district, and in fact Barack Obama won here. Democrats had hoped to find a better candidate than Francine Busby, who lost the 2006 special election to replace the disgraced Duke Cunningham as well as the general election this year. I have a hard time seeing Busby winning if she could not win in the best Democratic climate imaginable, especially running as a supporter of the “public option”. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 51 – Bob Filner (D)

This is not a totally safe Democratic seat, but it is safe for Filner. Republican Nick Popaditch has even bigger problems than his terrible political name. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 52 – Duncan D. Hunter (R)

This is not the Duncan Hunter who ran for President and called media executives “a bunch of knuckleheads.” This is his son. He is getting a pass in this mostly Republican district from Democrat Raymond Lutz. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 53 – Susan Davis (D)

With apologies to Republican Michael Crimmins, this seat is safely Democratic. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House Predictions: 33 Democrats, 20 Republicans…+1 REPUBLICAN