State of the Day - Colorado

Perhaps the most prominent Rocky Mountain State, Colorado has been on the cutting edge of political trends in the West. It boomed in the 1970’s on the back of oil, and became a high tech center during the tech boom of the 1990’s. Still, Colorado did not experience the huge growth and housing booms and busts of Arizona and Nevada, and its youngish population has been relatively stable through the recession. Colorado moved left with the influx of liberals in 1970’s, but moved sharply Republican with all of the professional newcomers with families in the 1990’s. Democrats surged in the 2000’s, adding support in the Denver suburbs to complement the liberal Denver/Boulder base, winning the Governor’s Mansion in 2006, Senate seats in 2006 and 2008, and one House seat in each of 2004, 2006, and 2008. Democrats had their convention in Denver and Barack Obama carried the state 54-45. The state’s youth, predilection for environmentalism, and sizable Hispanic population bode well for the future of Colorado Democrats.

The Republicans do have a chance to bounce back in the bad Democratic year of 2010. Bill Ritter is vacating the Governor’s Mansion, but the GOP has done everything possible to ensure that they will lose the race to replace him. Republicans are favored to take the Senate seat of appointed Senator Michael Bennet. The GOP also has hopes of winning the three House seats they lost the past six years. They should at least get one and have an excellent shot at picking up two, but getting all three back will prove difficult.

President – 9 Electoral Votes

Colorado was trending Democratic, Barack Obama smartly targeted the state, and won it easily. The state voted one point more Republican than the nation in 2004, and one point more Democratic than the nation in 2008. It might keep drifting left, but for right now the state is the “median voter” in Presidential elections. Colorado should be very competitive in the next Presidential election. If it is not, then the national race will not be a contest. Neither party can be assured of winning the election without Colorado. It should track pretty close with national polling, which means President Obama would lose it today.

As of now, Colorado’s Presidential caucuses in 2012 will be on March 20, though they could move to Super Tuesday. The caucus format should favor the candidate with superior organization (Mitt Romney won easily in 2008). I would rate the contenders as 1. Romney, 2. Palin, 3. Thune, 4. Gingrich, 5. Pawlenty. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Bill Ritter (D)

Governor Ritter elected not to seek re-election in the face of declining approval ratings. Democrats united around Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper. Republicans did not unite. The original favorite, former Rep. Scott McInnis dropped like a stone after revelations that he plagiarized some of his work for a think tank. He lost the primary to Tea Partier Dan Maes, who makes Michael Savage look like a flaming leftist and got caught lying about his resume. This turn of events led former Republican Rep. Tom Tancredo, a raving anti-immigrant zealot, to get in the race as the nominee of the Constitution Party. Maes has fallen below Tancredo in the right wing pecking order, but still garners 15-20 percent in the polls. Since Tancredo has less than zero crossover appeal, this series of events essentially hands the Governor’s Mansion to Hickenlooper. Simply a disaster for the Republicans.

Prediction: Hickenlooper (D) 49%, Tancredo (I) 36%, Maes (R) 15%

Senior Senator – Mark Udall (D)

Senator Udall should be favored at first glance in 2014, but he did run behind Barack Obama in 2008 and Colorado is marginal enough to where he will always have to worry about a serious challenge. Udall should be targeted in 2014. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT

Junior Senator – Michael Bennet (D)

Bennet was appointed to this seat in January, 2009 when Ken Salazar resigned to become Secretary of the Interior. He survived a strong primary challenge from the more liberal former House Speaker Andrew Romanoff. Bennet has never run for office before and has been sort of learning on the job. By all accounts he has improved as a candidate but is still not Mr. Charisma. He has not shied away from supporting some of the more controversial Democratic legislation.

Republicans had their own primary. Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck won Tea Party support and surprised establishment favorite Jane Norton. Buck is very conservative on pretty much every issue, probably too much so for Colorado in a year other than 2010. During the primary he made several gaffes, saying at one point that voters should vote for him over Norton because he does not wear high heels. He also called Tea Party supporters asking about President Obama’s birth certificate “dumbasses.” This is supposedly a gaffe, but I don’t really think it is beyond the profanity. Since the primary, Buck seems to have caught fire with his conservative message, and of all the “Tea Party” candidates nationwide he is among the most serious and most impressive.

Colorado voters seemed to have noticed. Buck has opened up a 5-8 point lead consistently over Bennet (PPP has a outlier poll showing Bennet up one). Bennet’s best hope is for Buck to continue to say stupid things. Otherwise, this is just too Republican a year for Bennet to win in Colorado. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

Prediction: Buck (R) 52%, Sen. Bennet (D) 48%

House 1 – Diana DeGette (D)

This urban Denver district is one of the safest Democratic seats in the nation. Republican nominee Mike Fallon has no chance. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 2 – Jared Polis (D)

The Boulder based seat is safely Democratic, but it is the sort of seat that might be competitive in a tsunami election. Unfortunately for Republicans, Stephen Bailey is not a serious enough candidate to seize the moment if Polis falters. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 3 – John Salazar (D)

This Western Range seat leans Republican by nature, but Salazar has done well here by putting up a moderate record. Still, he voted for the health care bill and in this year that makes him a major target. He is using a huge money advantage and an emphasis on local issues. He is also highlighting his irresponsibility, err, vote against TARP, and accusing Republican State Rep. Scott Tipton of being a “fat cat banker”

Tipton lost 62-38 to Salazar in 2006. He survived the primary even after his opponent received a Sarah Palin endorsement. He is running more moderately than other Republicans this cycle. He is attacking Salazar for the health care vote, but his first ad framed it in terms of cutting Medicaid, which Tipton pledges to protect “for our seniors”. Have I mentioned that I hate political ads?

Tipton is a bit short in the cash department, but both national parties are involved which mutes the advantage. Salazar’s edge seems to have gone away, and you know the DCCC is concerned since they are coming into this race. Tipton is not the best candidate, but he isn’t the worst, and he is a reasonable alternative for voters angry at President Obama and Salazar’s support of him. An AAF/Ayers poll in late August gave Tipton a 51-43 lead, but that is a Republican outfit. I still give Salazar the slightest of edges based mostly on his past performance, but I would not be surprised if he lost. This is about the 50th most vulnerable Democratic seat right now, so if Salazar loses you can be pretty sure the Republicans have the majority. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 4 – Betsy Markey (D)

This Eastern Colorado seat leans Republican, and even in 2008 Markey probably could not have won had Republicans had a better incumbent than Marilyn Musgrave. Markey is in a dogfight against Republican nominee State Rep. Cory Gardner, who is among the top fundraisers among House Republican challengers, though Markey has outraised him two-to-one. Markey also has quite a bit of help from outside liberal groups.

Nevertheless, Markey is clearly feeling the heat. She recently voted against extension of unemployment benefits. I don’t think this will offset her previous support of the cap-and-trade bill, the stimulus, and the card check bill, though she did vote against health care reform. Gardner is running a pretty standard issue conservative campaign, with emphasis on local issues. He is also staying away from birthers and other more controversial elements of the right wing of his party.

This seat is simply going to very difficult for Republicans to hold in this climate. The Democrats appeared to have cut bait on Markey, AAF/Ayers had Markey down 11 but The Hill/ANGA had Gardner up 44-41. In either event Markey is in trouble, and barring some sort of miracle change in climate, she will not win a second term. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House 5 – Doug Lamborn (R)

Lamborn created quite a bit of ill will among Republicans in winning and holding this safe seat, but he has no real competition this year. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 6 – Mike Coffman (R)

This seat isn’t totally bereft of Democrats, but Coffman won the vacancy easily enough in a terrible Republican year. Democrat John Flerlage is pretty good for a hopeless candidate, but he is still hopeless. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 7 – Ed Perlmutter (D)

This suburban Denver seat was designed to be competitive, but it has developed a serious Democratic lean. Perlmutter has done well while generally supporting the Democratic agenda down the line. He has deep roots in the district and is considered one of the more assiduous Congressmen in terms of constituent service. Perlmutter is trying to call himself a centrist Democrat. Republicans nominated Ryan Frazier, an attractive African-American. He is trying to hit Perlmutter over the economy and tie him to Nancy Pelosi.

Perlmutter is well liked in the district, but the question is how big the Republican wave will be. If it is a 60 seat wave Perlmutter may lose. Still, I think the wave won’t be quite enough to knock off the well positioned Perlmutter. The GOP Magellan Group showed a one point lead for Frazier, but that is very weak for a leaked poll. I see this as a third tier race at the moment. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House Predictions: 4 Democrats, 3 Republicans…+1 REPUBLICAN