State of the Day - Connecticut

Connecticut is the richest state, but also has pockets of poverty and declining blue collar communities. Connecticut was generally a very Republican state through the 1980’s. The state has always been home to creators and inventors, and in recent years has geared its laws to attract great insurance companies and financial service institutions. However, while suburban East and West Connecticut have prospered, the cities of Central Connecticut have been plagued with a Michigan style permanent recession, slow job growth, crime, and general decline. The state has high taxes and a very poor business climate, which has resulted in stagnation and the highest levels of income inequality in the country. Democrats have grabbed a pretty strong hold on the state with their base vote coming from the wealthy suburbs and minorities in the central cities, with Republicans still mostly winning blue collar whites. Modern Connecticut is quite culturally liberal and this has obviously helped the Democrats, especially in the upscale suburbs. While Democrats have not elected a Governor since 1986, they dominate the State Legislature, statewide offices, the two Senate seats (though Joe Lieberman was reelected as an independent in 2006), and in 2008 eliminated the last Republican from the House delegation.

Democrats have three main goals in 2010. First, they look to elect a governor for the first time in a generation. Second, they want to keep the Senate seat of the retiring Christopher Dodd. Finally, they want to keep two recently won House seats that are under serious challenge. They look in good shape to accomplish all three goals.

President – 7 Electoral Votes

If a Republican had a good enough national lead, Connecticut might appear competitive. It would take a true wipeout for a Republican to actually win it, though, like say what would happen if the election were today.

Connecticut will have a primary on Super Tuesday. John McCain won easily in both 2000 and 2008, so we might expect the primary to give an edge to the most moderate contender left in the field. I would be surprised to see Sarah Palin or Mike Huckabee do well here. Even though he did poorly in 2008, Mitt Romney would seem best poised to win this primary. In fact, he would need to win the primary. I would rate the contenders as 1. Romney, 2. Pawlenty, 3. Thune, 4. Palin, 5. Gingrich. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

Governor – M. Jodi Rell (R)

Rell decided not to run for a second full term that she probably could have won. Republicans nominated former Ambassador to Ireland, Tom Foley. The Republican nominee has actually been somewhat critical of the outgoing Rell Administration, calling it a big spending administration. He has promised not to increase any taxes and balance the budget by cutting spending. He also wants to promote a better business climate and reform pension obligations.

Democrats nominated Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy after a competitive primary with liberal darling Ned Lamont. Malloy is sounding some of the same themes as Foley, calling for job creation and tax reform. However, he is much less eager than Foley to tackle public pensions. He also believes more in creating jobs through government investment than Foley.

Connecticut is a Democratic state but has not elected a Democratic Governor since 1986. That should change. Malloy has consistently led by 6-8 points in polls and four weeks before the election, this race would require a major shakeup to keep the Governor’s Mansion for the GOP. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

Prediction: Malloy (D) 53%, Foley (R) 47%

Senior Senator – Christopher Dodd (D)

Dodd elected to retire in the face of severe ethical problems and polls showing an uphill race. Attorney General Richard Blumenthal was waiting in the wings as an obvious replacement. However, he has struggled as a candidate, lying about his military service and seeming apathetic and unenergetic. This has left somewhat of an opening for Linda McMahon, wealthy former CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment and husband of wrestling impresario Vince McMahon. McMahon has spent liberally and done a good job of avoiding mistakes, but she is too conservative for Connecticut and her past in the wresting business, including some embarrassing on camera moments, is not the most appealing.

Republicans are talking this race up, but I have no idea why. A Quinnipiac Poll had the race at three points in late September, but that’s an outlier. While Blumenthal’s lead has narrowed over the course of this race, he is consistently polling the mid-50’s with a 7-13 point lead on McMahon. Even in a year like 2010, Democrats have an edge in Connecticut. Blumenthal has gotten himself elected consistently in Connecticut, and barring another disaster will do so again in 2010. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

Prediction: Blumenthal (D) 54%, McMahon (R) 45%

Junior Senator – Joe Lieberman (D)

Lieberman was elected on the “Connecticut for Lieberman” party line after losing the Democratic primary in 2006. Often referred to as an independent, he calls himself an “Independent Democrat”. For all practical purposes in the Senate he remains a Democrat, and thus I refer to him as such.

The only thing that seems certain is that Lieberman will not be the Democratic nominee for this seat in 2012. If he runs again as an independent, it is not clear he will win this time. His outspoken support of John McCain in 2008 did not go over well here. The most likely scenario is that a real Democrat, perhaps Representative Chris Murphy, will take this seat. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 1 – John Larson (D)

Larson is a runaway winner of the Ted Kennedy lookalike contest. Republican Ann Brickley is hopeless even in 2010. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 2 – Joe Courtney (D)

Republicans held this seat until 2006, but Courtney has had no problems. It leans Democratic by nature. It would be likely to stay in the Democratic column under any circumstances, but Republicans failed to come up with a serious challenger. Former anchorwoman Janet Peckinpaugh is just a formality. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 3 – Rosa DeLauro (D)

This is not a completely safe seat for Democrats, but it is safe for DeLauro. Republican Jerry Labriola is more vigorous than previous challengers, but it does not matter. I really would like to make an inappropriate joke concerning his name. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 4 – Jim Himes (D)

Himes beat incumbent Republican Christopher Shays in the wave election of 2008. While the seat leans Democratic, Himes could have major competition. State Senator Dan Debicella is decently funded and is running a strong race. He is trying to run in the mold of a Chris Shays liberal Republican. He does, however, want to extend the Bush tax cuts and repeal the health care bill. Himes is obviously feeling some pressure because he is making a big effort to appear in public as a big opponent of government spending. He has been a pretty strong supporter of the Obama agenda, though, so it’s hard to find any real consistency.

Debicella is definitely competitive and is sounding the right notes. I still like Himes based on the makeup of the district. This is a Democratic leaning district with very upscale voters (the wealthiest district in the nation, as a matter of fact). It does have the lower income white voters who have abandoned the Democrats in droves. I think this is why Himes has maintained leads in what little polling exists, and I think we can expect fewer Democrats to defect here than elsewhere, and for that reason I like Himes. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 5 – Chris Murphy (D)

Republicans nominated State Senator Sam Caligiuri to take on Murphy. Unlike the Fourth District, this is legitimate swing district covering Northwest Connecticut. Murphy has put up a pretty liberal record and could be in some trouble. I don’t put much stock in House polls, but a Connecticut Capitol Report/Market Research Group poll showed Caligiuri leading Murphy 50-44. Republicans have responded by placing Caligiuri in their “young guns” program.

I am going on gut here, but I really like Murphy to hold on. All of the statewide polling in Connecticut indicates that Democrats have not lost that much even in this downturn, and so I am hesitant to believe a less reliable district poll. Caligiuri is probably too conservative for the district as well. If this is a R +5 year in Connecticut, Caligiuri probably wins. However, I think in Connecticut we are looking at something like an R+2 -3 year, which will be enough for Murphy to take a narrow victory. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House Predictions: 4 Democrats, 1 Republican…+1 REPUBLICAN