State of the Day - Delaware

Delaware was the first state to ratify the Constitution. The state is actually quite racially diverse and a reasonable microcosm of American demographics, though it tilts to the wealthy side. Much of the economy has focused on chickens and DuPont. For more than a century, Delaware’s flexible laws of incorporation have made it the mecca of incorporation and corporate law, and the state's lack of usury laws have turned it into a haven for banks and credit card companies. Between corporate taxes and tolls, which disproportionately fall on out of state residents, Delware is able to keep its taxes low on its own citizens. It was a slave state and still has a 20% African-American population, increasingly joined by Hispanic immigrants. Delaware was one of the nation’s great bellwethers until the 1990’s, but has since become a solidly Democratic state. Like in other small states, personality is still the driving force in state politics.

Republicans seemed to have a sure thing Senate pickup, but moderate Republican Rep. Mike Castle lost the Republican primary to Tea Party sensation Christine O’Donnell, which ensures that Democrats will keep the seat. Democrats will also pick up the House seat Castle is vacating, which makes Delaware one of the best, if not the best, Democratic state in 2010.

President – 3 Electoral Votes

Delaware will go for the Democrats unless there is a huge Republican landslide. A recent polls measured President Obama’s approval rating at 51% here, which gives him an edge in a close race even in his current poor state.

The state’s Super Tuesday primary will probably get lost in the shuffle, but before this year it seemed to tilt against social conservative candidates. Michael Castle’s endorsement was very important in 2008 for John McCain. However, O’Donnell’s primary victory over Castle throws this orthodoxy into doubt. Still, this is state that Mitt Romney would need to do well in. I would rate the contenders as 1. Romney, 2. Palin, 3. Thune, 4. Gingrich, 5. Pawlenty. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

Governor – Jack Markell (D)

Markell has had a solid first year and a half, and has generally had solid approval ratings looking toward the 2012 elections, although they have varied. Delaware has a strong Democratic tilt, no obvious Republican candidates, and has not turned out an incumbent Governor since 1976. These factors make Markell a favorite in 2012. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

Senior Senator – Thomas Carper (D)

Barring a Roland Burris sized misstep, Carper should be safe should he choose to run for a third term in 2012. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Junior Senator – Ted Kaufman (D)

This race has received far too much attention, so I will keep this short since this is a very simple situation. Republican Christine O’Donnell is what she always been: a perennial candidate with zero chance of winning an election in Delaware. New Castle County County Executive Chris Coons is a perfectly competent Democrat who will easily defeat O’Donnell. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Prediction: Coons (D) 58%, O’Donnell (R) 42%

House At-Large – Michael Castle (R)

Castle vacated this seat to run for the Senate. This was obviously a blow to Republicans in a state like Delaware. Social conservative Glen Urquhart won the primary, and makes O’Donnell look like a centrist. He said that the concept of the separation between church and state came from Adolf Hitler (note to aspiring candidates, comparing opponents to Hitler never, EVER turns out well for you).

Democrats nominated Lieutenant Governor John Carney. He lost a bitter primary for Governor to Markell in 2008 but is in good position here. Carney has every advantage, money, polish, institutional support, and partisan advantage. Carney will win easily, and this race will closely track the Coons-O’Donnell Senate race. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House Predictions: 1 Democrat…+1 DEMOCRATS