State of the Day - Florida

Sun, low taxes, and air conditioning have helped turn Florida from a sleepy Southern state into a mega state with decidedly non-Dixie demographics. It is known for its retirees, but over the last thirty years young families both from other states and other nations (especially Latin America) have come to Florida seeking opportunity. It has a large (20%) Hispanic population, made up not just of familiar Cubans but also more recent arrivals, from Venezuelans, Bolivians, Ecuadorans, Puerto Ricans, and others. The state has made itself attractive to small business but was hit very hard by the housing crash and resulting recession, which has helped send unemployment upwards and population growth downwards. Florida consists of several distinct and very different areas, such as the traditionally Southern “Redneck Riviera”, Cuban oriented Miami, the Gold Coast of Northeastern retirees, the booming Tampa area, and the diverse I-4 corridor surrounding Orlando. This has led to a politically balanced state for the most part, though Republicans have held an advantage in state politics. The key figure in state politics has been former Governor (1999-2007) Jeb Bush, who governed conservatively and remained highly popular. He was succeeded by Republican Charlie Crist, who governed quite moderately on issues such as the budget and environment, and was essentially forced out of the party by conservatives when he tried to run for the Senate in 2010.

Florida features open seat races for Governor and Senator in 2010. The race for the Governor’s Mansion is wide open. Crist’s third party run seems to have split the Democratic vote, instead of the Republican vote, leaving the race relatively easy for Republican Marco Rubio. Democrats also face battles to hold onto House seats they claimed in the past two elections.

Florida – 27 Electoral Votes

Florida sits almost precisely in the middle of the political spectrum and will become the third largest state after the 2010 Census. Suffice it to say that plenty of money will be spent here. Those two factors make it highly unlikely that Florida will vote for the loser in the 2012 Election. If the election were today Barack Obama would lose it. Republicans might have the slightest of edges, as the state voted 1 point more Republican than average in 2000 and 2004 and two points more Republican in 2008. In a very close election, Florida might very well decide the election again.

Florida broke the rules of both parties in 2008 by having an early primary. Republicans seated half of the state’s delegation and Democrats had a loud fight over seating the Florida delegation, and in both cases the sanctions were ultimately pointless (as are national conventions, but I digress). As of now, Florida is scheduled for January 31, 2012, too early under proposed GOP rules and even before Iowa/New Hampshire/South Carolina would be under those rules. It will probably be after Iowa/New Hampshire but before Super Tuesday, and might warrant more sanctions.

The sanctions paid off for Florida because the contest may have been decisive for the GOP. Rudy Giuliani had put all his eggs here, which left him fried/scrambled/done over easy. Then-popular GOP Governor Charlie Crist came out of nowhere to endorse John McCain at the last minute, and was widely credited for carrying McCain to a 36-31 victory over Mitt Romney. Florida is so big that candidates with money will have an advantage over grass roots types. Mitt Romney absolutely must win this state if he wants the nomination. Newt Gingrich, with a natural base in the northern part of the state, would also need to win. I would rate the contenders as 1. Gingrich, 2. Romney, 3. Palin, 4. Thune, 5. Pawlenty. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Charlie Crist (R)

By mid-2009, Crist had high approval ratings and could have waltzed to re-election. Instead, he ran for the Senate and in so doing radically changed the trajectory of his political career. Originally, it looked as if veteran Republican Attorney General Bill McCollum would be the nominee to replace him. Instead, he ran aground on the challenge of Rick Scott, a very wealthy hospital magnate who appealed to grass roots conservatives. He also had to deal with some ethical issues regarding criminal investigations into his businesses, on top of the divisive primary.

Democrats nominated state CFO Alex Sink without much fuss. She is an attractive candidate and has a record of being elected to statewide office in Florida. Originally, Sink’s chances seemed to be compromised (sunk?) by the presence of Lawton “Bud” Chiles, son of former Democratic Governor (1991-1998) Lawton Chiles Sr. However, Chiles dropped out and endorsed Sink, ensuring that she would have a united Democratic base vote.

Sink’s problem, of course, is that 2010 is not shaping up to be a Democratic year, so the Democratic base vote is probably closer to 45% than the 48-50% it would usually be. Sink is probably a better, and certainly more polished, candidate than Scott. In another year, she’d be an easy favorite in this race. Scott had some early trouble uniting the Republican vote after the primary, and Sink held a lead through most of September. Scott then moved ahead, but Sink has led in some recent polls and the race seems about tied at the moment.

This is a total tossup. If I had to guess, I’d say that the environment of 2010 is just enough to push Scott over the top. Events and candidate performance down the stretch could still determine the outcome of this race. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

Prediction: Scott (R) 50%, Sink (D) 49%

Senior Senator – Bill Nelson (D)

Nelson received a free pass in 2006 from the disastrous campaign of Katherine Harris. He could be vulnerable, but will be formidable. Former Governor Jeb Bush would be the best Republican candidate, but seems highly unlikely to run. After all, he could have run and won an open seat this year. Senator George LeMieux, appointed as a placeholder by Charlie Crist for the other Senate seat, may run. A recent PPP poll showed Nelson with a 48-29 lead over LeMieux but tied with Bush. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

Junior Senator – George LeMieux (R)

Governor Charlie Crist appointed LeMieux as a placeholder in August, 2009 when Mel Martinez was so eager to leave the Senate he decided he could not wait until the end of his term. Crist needed somebody who would not run for reelection so that he could win the seat. LeMieux complied, but Crist ran into problems. He attracted primary opposition to his right from former House Speaker Marco Rubio. Conservatives had already been discontented with Crist due to his literal embrace of President Obama and support of his stimulus package. Rubio caught fire with a vigorous, charismatic campaign and detailed conservative positions. Crist struggled to find a campaign theme and steadily lost support and funds. Rather than take a beating in the primary, Crist opted to run as an independent. The problem for Crist is that Rubio seems to have the solid support of 45% of the electorate. Most of Crist’s support seems to be coming from the Democratic side, but the Democratic nominee, Rep. Kendrick Meek, looks like he will be able to at least keep 20% of the Democratic base vote. This is obviously impossible math for Crist, and unless Meek drops out, Rubio will win easily. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Prediction: Rubio (R) 45%, Crist (I) 30%, Meek (D) 25%

House 1 – Jeff Miller (R)

Miller has no problems in one of the most Republican districts in the nation. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Allen Boyd (D)

This Tallahassee based seat leans Republican, but the Blue Dog Boyd has done very well here. Still, this is the sort of seat that become a huge problem for Democrats in a year like 2010. Boyd narrowly survived a liberal primary challenge. He is currently trying to show his conservative bona fides by pushing for an extension of all Bush tax cuts. Still, his vote for the stimulus bill is really haunting him.

Republican Steve Southerland is short of funds and not the best candidate by any stretch of the imagination. His fundraising is weak, but the NRCC is hitting this race hard. Southerland says he is ahead, and is getting aggressive, hitting Boyd for spending and for being “too Washington”.

Boyd has basically been reduced to an attacking fiend, hitting Southerland for supposed non-payment of taxes and for being anti-troop (using some out of context statements to make the attack).

The race is totally a tossup and could be a good bellwether on Election Night. I continue to think that the Republican wave, if it comes, will effect less entrenched incumbents much harder than veteran officeholders, and for that reason I think Boyd will narrowly survive. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 3 – Corrine Brown (D)

Brown had major ethical problems a few years ago, but Republicans could not budge her from this safe seat. Underfunded Republican Michael Yost will do no better. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 4 – Ander Crenshaw (R)

No Democrat would have a reason to run here. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 5 – Ginny Brown-Waite (R)

Brown-Waite announced her retirement at the very last moment to ensure that Hernando County Sheriff Richard Nugent could replace her. Three cheers for democracy in action! Nugent has been pretty anemic, but it really is not important. It would take a perfect storm for Democrats to win this seat, which won’t happen for James Piccillo. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 6 – Cliff Stearns (R)

Stearns is totally safe against Democrat Steven Schonberg. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 7 – John Mica (R)

Democratic nominee Heather Beaven will not be able to threaten Mica in this mostly Republican district. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 8 – Alan Grayson (D)

Grayson won this Orlando area swing seat in 2008 when incumbent Republican Ric Keller fell asleep. Since taking office, Grayson has attracted attention for a liberal voting record and several questionable comments. He called the Republican health plan “hoping you die quickly”. He then exacerbated his comments by referring to health care in America as “a holocaust.” Additionally, he called one of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s senior advisers a “whore”. He recently attracted negative publicity for using his franking privileges to send constituents a DVD featuring “highlights” from Grayson’s term in Congress. This being 2010, his extreme idiocy has helped him become one of the top fundraisers among House Democrats.

All this has made Grayson extremely vulnerable. Not surprisingly, a plethora of Republicans ran to face him. The primary was won by Dan Webster, a longtime State Senator. His biggest problem is a third party candidacy from Tea Partier Peg Dunmire, who has been rumored to be a Grayson plant. Even so, Webster is conservative enough to where he should not have too much drainage to the Tea Party.

Grayson was no better than a 50-50 shot to win, but he destroyed his chances with an advertisement that lowered the bar for outright false attacks, even by political negative ad standards. His ad had a video apparently showing “Taliban Dan” Webster telling his audience that “wives should submit to their husbands.” In actuality, Webster was making the opposite statement. This came after another Grayson ad accused Webster of being a draft dodger which has been described as “false” by numerous fact check organization and was specially condemned by the Annenberg Public Policy Center’s factcheck.org. Grayson’s problems with the truth and common decency have hurt his standing. A recent Sunshine State News/VSS poll showed him at a desultory 36%, trailing Webster by seven points. Grayson should lose, and I can say nothing more but good riddance. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House 9 – Gus Bilirakis (R)

Bilirakis is safe in this Republican seat against token Democrat Anita De Palma. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 10 – Bill Young (R)

This seat would be very competitive if it opened, but Young has made this seat safe. Charlie Justice is a surprisingly vigorous Democrat but it will not matter. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 11 – Kathy Castor (D)

Castor has a credible GOP opponent in Mike Prendergast, but this is not a competitive district. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 12 – Adam Putnam (R)

Putnam is giving up this seat to run for Agriculture Commissioner. This Republican leaning Tampa area seat should be too tough for Democrats in a year like 2010. Still Republican Dennis Ross (who looks disturbingly like creepy former Rep. Mark Foley) is too far to the right even for this seat. He most recently proved this by calling for the abolition of the United Nations. Even with that, there is a Tea Party candidate on the ballot as well.

Democrat Lori Edwards has run a surprisingly effective campaign and has grabbed the political center. I don’t like her chances in a year like 2010, but between Ross’s ideology and the possibility of a split Republican vote, this could be an upset. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House 13 – Vern Buchanan (R)

Buchanan needed a bitter recount to win this Republican leaning seat in 2006. He has since made this seat safely Republican. Democrat Jim Golden shares a name with an original Houston Colt .45. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 14 – Connie Mack (R)

Democrat James Roach will be much easier to dispose of than his namesakes who show up from time to time in residences all over Texas. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 15 – Bill Posey (R)

On paper this seat should be worth taking a look at, but Democrat C. Shannon Roberts is not a serious candidate. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 16 – Tom Rooney (R)

After dealing with the bipartisan scumbag team of Mark Foley and Tim Mahoney, the voters of this district could be forgiven for simply being happy that Rooney has avoided trouble. Democrat Jim Horn represents a free pass. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 17 – Kendrick Meek (D)

Meek is vacating this seat to run for the Senate. Republicans are totally irrelevant in this district, so Frederica Wilson’s victory in the Democratic primary punched her ticket to Washington. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 18 – Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R)

This formerly rock solid Cuban Republican district has trended Democratic enough to where it would be highly competitive in an open seat, but Ros-Lehtinen easily survived a strong challenge in the GOP disaster of 2008 and is completely safe in 2010 against token challenger Rolando Banciella. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 19 – Ted Deutch (D)

This is a safe Democratic seat, even accounting for the Palm Beach voters who accidentally voted for Pat Buchanan in 2000. Deutch won the seat in April after Robert Wexler resigned to head the Center for Middle East Peace and Cooperation. He has only token opposition from Joseph Budd. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 20 – Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)

Wasserman Schultz would be safe in this heavily Democratic district even without her frequent television appearances. Republican nominee Karen Harrington, a restaurant owner and Tea Party candidate, says she is “fed up” with Washington. She should have tried another district. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 21 – Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R)

Lincoln Diaz-Balart is retiring after nine terms. His brother Mario, currently representing the 25th District to the east, is running to replace him. As this is a Republican leaning open seat, at least technically, we would have generally kept an eye on it. However, Mario Diaz-Balart has no opposition. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 22 – Ron Klein (D)

Klein won this tossup coastal Palm Beach/Broward seat in the Democratic wave of 2006. Under the circumstances, his 55-45 win over an underfunded Allen West in 2008 was not particularly impressive. West is back for another shot, and seems more serious this time, to the tune of $4 million raised. He has outraised Klein and has the party support that he lacked last time, including an endorsement from Sarah Palin. West, the rare Republican African-American, has tied into the Tea Party movement for enthusiasm, and his story as a Lt. Colonel sacked after firing a gun too close to an Iraqi detainee resonates with conservatives.

West is probably a bit too conservative for this district, so even with his fundraising prowess he might not pick up any points from being a better candidate this time around. While the race is worth watching, I still like Klein. A Democratic leaked poll in late September from Harstead Strategic Research showed Klein leading 48-43. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 23 – Alcee Hastings (D)

I am out of ways to say this is a safe Democratic district. The only thing Republican candidate Bernard Sansaricq can do is mess up my spell checker. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 24 – Suzanne Kosmas (D)

Kosmas won this Orlando district in 2008 mostly because of serious ethical problems by incumbent Tom Feeney. Predictably, she faces a major challenge this year. State Rep. Sandy Adams is quite conservative. She wants term limits and introduced a measure to censure Governor Charlie Crist.

In any event, Kosmas is in major trouble. She switched her vote to support the Obama health care bill, which will not help her. Her overall record lacks much of anything to show she is not a leadership loyalist, which is not a trait that plays well here. The DCCC has pulled their ads buys for Kosmas, indicating that they are cutting bait. That’s the akin of a political funeral. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 25 – Mario Diaz-Balart (R)

Diaz-Balart has decided to leave this Republican leaning South Florida seat to run for the more compact seat to the east being vacated by his brother, Lincoln. The Republican nominee to replace him is State Rep. David Rivera. Rivera is a well respected conservative lawmaker who like most Florida Hispanic Republicans, is rather liberal on immigration. Rivera does have some notable problems, like questionable fundraising practices and accusations of domestic violence.

Democrats nominated Joe Garcia, who lost 53-47 to Diaz-Balart here in 2008. Garcia is more moderate on economic issues than most Democrats and supports Israel strongly. His biggest weakness is the national climate, especially since he could not win here with the wind at his back in 2008. Both Garcia and Rivera are very well funded. Garcia’s best hope may be for Rivera’s foibles to become a major issue. Rivera has thus far successfully foisted attention on Garcia’s supposed “support” for Fidel Castro, which as we Southerners say, “them’s fightin’ words” in this district. In a normal year I might like Garcia, but in 2010 it is highly likely the Republican Rivera will hold this seat. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House Predictions: 17 Republicans, 8 Democrats…+3 REPUBLICANS