State of the Day - Georgia

Note: Beyond The Polls will be resuming a normal publishing schedule this week. State of the Race will be posted on Monday morning.

Georgia, fueled by booming Metro Atlanta, has been one of the great growth states of the past fifty years. Led by a savvy business community (think Coca-Cola) and the moral power of Martin Luther King, Jr., Georgia integrated much more smoothly and peaceably than its Deep South brethren during the Civil Rights Era, and has benefited ever since. Ironically, the key political figure was Governor Jimmy Carter (1971-1975), the first politician to win the support of both blacks and traditionally conservative and segregationist voters in rural Georgia, and the first Southern Governor to openly embrace integration. The tolerant culture and healthy economy has helped attract blacks and other immigrants. Democrats managed to maintain their traditional dominance here through 2000. The dam finally broke in 2002, when Republicans defeated Democratic Governor Roy Barnes and Senator Max Cleland. In 2004, Republican Johnny Isakson easily took the Senate seat of the retiring “Democrat” Zell Miller and Republicans took over the Legislature for the first time since reconstruction. The Republican trend continued even through the otherwise Democratic year of 2006, in which Democratic Reps. Jim Marshall and John Barrow came within a few hundred votes of losing their seats. Looking to the future, Georgia’s big issue is a potential water shortage and fights with Alabama and Tennessee over water. For now Georgia is a reliably Republican state. Barack Obama worked to maximize black turnout in 2008 and largely succeeded, but could still manage only 47%. The turnout was enough to require Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss to face a December runoff, and the dramatic falloff in Democratic support portends poorly for the party when Barack Obama is not on the ballot.

Democrats do have a fading chance at taking back the Governor’s Mansion in 2010. However, Republicans still have an advantage in federal races. Senator Johnny Isakson will have no problem getting reelected and Republicans are taking aim at three Democratic held House seats.

President – 15 Electoral Votes

Democrats talked incessantly last cycle about how with increased black turnout Barack Obama could carry Georgia. Predictably, black turnout did increase to 30% of the total and Obama managed to improve 10% on John Kerry’s portion of the black vote, taking an astounding 98%. Also predictably, McCain still carried Georgia 52-47. Georgia is still a very Republican state and will vote that way in 2012.

Georgia’s Super Tuesday primary would presumably favor Georgian Newt Gingrich if he ran. Otherwise, the race would be wide open here. Mike Huckabee won this primary in 2008, but with only 34%. John McCain got 32% and Mitt Romney finished a close third with 30%. I’d rate the contenders as 1. Gingrich, 2. Romney, 3. Thune, 4. Palin, 5. Pawlenty. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Sonny Perdue (R)

The first Republican governor since reconstruction, Perdue finds himself term-limited out of office at the end of the year. Former Rep. Nathan Deal won a very close primary runoff. After that primary, the Republican voter base seemed divided and Deal could do no better than even in the polls with Democrat Roy Barnes. Deal has run a pretty standard conservative campaign.

Barnes served a term as Governor from 1999-2003, losing his reelection to Perdue in a race that marked a sea change in Georgia state politics. Barnes is doing his best to run as a conservative and hit Deal over perceived ethical issues. His poll numbers have remained in the low-40’s, however, and Deal seems to have solidified his hold on Republican voters and has built a 7-10 point lead in most polling. Georgia seems highly unlikely to elect a Democrat in a year like 2010, and nothing about this race makes me think otherwise.

Note that there will be a general election runoff on November 30 if no candidate receives 50%, though this seems highly unlikely. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

Prediction: Deal (R) 54%, Barnes (D) 46%

Senior Senator – Saxby Chambliss (R)

Chambliss had to go to a runoff in 2008 to defeat weak Democratic challenger Jim Martin, due mainly to the increased African-American turnout spurred by Barack Obama. Without that factor, he easily won the runoff. He should be a huge favorite in 2014. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – Johnny Isakson (R)

Democratic nominee Mike Thurmond, the Commissioner of Labor, is horribly underfunded and behind by about twenty points in the polls. This is not a contest. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Prediction: Sen. Isakson (R) 61%, Thurmond (D) 39%

House 1 – Jack Kingston (R)

This seat is very safely Republican. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Sanford Bishop (D)

This Southwestern Georgia is by nature a very marginal district (though 47% African-American), but Bishop had seemingly made it safe for himself. Still, he is in serious trouble this time around. His vote for the health care bill put him in trouble enough. His bigger problem is that he is involved in a scandal surrounding his direction of Congressional Black Caucus money to relatives.

State Rep. Mike Keown has made this a very competitive race and has actually out-raised Bishop. He has hit the incumbent hard on ethics and tried to make Bishop’s pork production into a negative by ripping Democratic budgets and calling for spending restraint.

I don’t think Bishop would have been in all that much trouble without the scandal. With that in play, he becomes very vulnerable in a “throw out the bums” year. Keown is certainly doing all he can do take advantage.

This race is a tossup. The conventional wisdom seems to think that Bishop will lose, but I have to disagree. I am more optimistic than most that Democrats will be able to turn out their base vote reasonably well. If Bishop can get a fair share of the 47% black population out it will be mathematically difficult for him to lose. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 3 – Lynn Westmoreland (R)

Democrat Frank Saunders is horribly outgunned in this intensely Republican seat. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 4 – Hank Johnson (D)

In a seat that did not give Barack Obama 79% of the vote, Republican Liz Carter could make headway on Johnson based on his public commentary that Guam might tip over due to too many military personnel. This district being what it is, however, Johnson is safe. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 5 – John Lewis (D)

Lewis is even safer than Johnson. Republican Fenn Little has an eponymous chance. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 6 – Tom Price (R)

Suburban Atlanta is not a good area for Democrats. Price is unopposed. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 7 – John Linder (R)

Linder is retiring. This is a totally safe Republican district, so we can forget about Democrat Doug Heckman. Rob Woodall, Linder’s Chief of Staff, won a competitive primary and will be the next Member of Congress. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 8 – Jim Marshall (D)

This is not a seat Democrats should have, but Marshall has held it for four terms. Marshall has consistently put up one of the most conservative voting records among House Democrats and has distanced himself publicly from Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi, going so far as to call for the election of a new Speaker. He called the health care bill, “a few boxcars added to a runaway economic freight train hauling the nation toward bankruptcy.”

He faces Republican State Rep. Austin Scott. Scott has putting up a moderate to conservative image, but got a late start on the race, which gives Marshall a big fundraising edge. He has recently gotten aggressive in hitting Marshall over his party affiliation, budgetary votes, and immigration record.

Marshall and national Democrats have recently started to hit Scott over his divorce, calling on him to unseal the records. That’s a pretty good indication that Democrats don’t think they can win here on the issues.

This race is totally about national dynamics. I give Marshall a four point edge to start. If the national dynamics make Republicans get about four of five points more than their usual output, Scott will win. I think we are looking at about a four or five point more Republican than average year. I also like Scott because the last time Marshall ran without Barack Obama’s turnout operation, he nearly lost in the very Democratic 2006. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 9 – Tom Graves (R)

Graves won this seat in June after Nathan Deal resigned to run for Governor and won a competitive primary, giving Graves a seat for life. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 10 – Paul Broun (R)

Broun may be the most conservative Member of Congress. This is fittingly a safe Republican seat, and he will clobber Democrat Russell James Edwards. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 11 – Phil Gingrey (R)

Gingrey is unopposed in a district so Republican Alan Keyes could win it, at least if he had no other Republican opposition. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 12 – John Barrow (D)

Barrow’s voting record and election results lead one to think this East Georgia is a heavily Republican district, but it’s actually pretty much in the middle. Barack Obama got 55% here. Barrow survived a second straight serious challenge here. He consistently puts up a conservative record and has avoided politically harmful votes during this Congress.

Republicans nominated Tea Partier Ray McKinney. He hasn’t raised much money, but has outside help from Sarah Palin and Karl Rove. Still, even in 2010 Barrow seems a better fit for this district than McKinney. I think it would take about a 75 seat wave to carry McKinney into office, and I don’t think the Republicans will come close to that. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 13 – David Scott (D)

This black majority seat is safe for Scott and the Democrats. Republican Mike Crane should have found a different district.

House Predictions: 8 Republicans, 5 Democrats…NO CHANGE