State of the Day - Hawaii

Hawaii, essentially conquered by the United States in the 1890’s, is a geographically and culturally unique state. The state has a long history of tolerance and is very diverse: 39% Asian, 25% White, 8% Native Hawaiin, and 8% Hispanic. Hawaii has been dominated since statehood by a Democratic political machine that that has built a large government apparatus and imposes high taxes. Agriculture has declined, and the main economic pillars are now tourism and the military. This has led to a weak economy that is very prone to recession and its most talented youth go elsewhere to get ahead (like Barack Obama). Discontent with this situation allowed Republican Linda Lingle to defeat the ancient Democratic machine and win the Governor’s Mansion in 2002. Another constant issue is the status of Native Hawaiians. Democratic Senator Daniel Akaka has failed for a decade to pass his bill granting sovereignty to this group. The state’s natural environment is always a contentious issue, as well.

Term limits will send Lingle packing this year, and there seems to be a good chance that Democrats will resume their total control of state politics, though Republicans are fighting hard to hold onto the Governor’s Mansion. Living legend Daniel Inouye will have no problem extending his remarkable tenure. The most interesting race will be in the First Congressional District, where Republican Rep. Charles Djou fights an uphill battle to retain the seat he won under fluke circumstances in May.

President – 4 Electoral Votes

Hawaii is by any measure an overwhelmingly Democratic state. It does seem to have a soft spot for Republican incumbents, going for Richard Nixon in 1972 and Ronald Reagan in 1984 and giving George W. Bush a shockingly high 45% in 2004. Hawaii really loved its native son Barack Obama, giving him an astounding 72%-27% margin in 2008. Obama will not lose Hawaii in 2008, because if he found himself in that position he would likely find himself forced into not running for reelection. Still, his current position is so bad that Hawaii might not be a blowout. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

Governor – Linda Lingle (R)
Lingle has retained high job ratings, but must retire after two terms. Republicans nominated Lieutenant Governor James “Duke” Aiona. While Lingle’s popularity helps him on the whole, he has struggled to establish his own identity.

Democrats had a competitive primary which ended with them nominating former Rep. Neil Abercrombie. The longtime Honolulu Representative has emphasized education, criticizing the Lingle/Aiona administration for poor school performance. He also promotes setting up an Energy Authority to jump start alternative energy usage.

For most of the year, this race was considered to be safely Democratic. However, Rasmussen, Daily Kos/PPP, and a local Hawaii TV poll have all showed the Abercrombie lead at a mere 2-3 points.

The race is too close to call at this point but when all else is equal, I expect Hawaii to revert to its Democratic identity. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

Prediction: Abercrombie (D) 51%, Aiona (R) 49%

Senior Senator – Daniel Inouye (D)

With the deaths of Ted Kennedy and Robert Byrd, Inouye has become President Pro Tempore of the Senate. His status in Hawaii goes beyond any title. He is beyond safe. State Rep. Cam Cavasso is the Republican who will take the fall. He must have been the weird kid in school who wrote a paper entitled “when I grow up, I want to take down Daniel Inouye!” SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Prediction: Sen. Inouye (D) 68%, Cavasso (R) 32%

Junior Senator – Daniel Akaka (D)

Akaka faced a vigorous primary challenge in 2006 from non-establishment Democrat primary challenger Rep. Ed Case, but won the general election easily. Despite losing the May special election for the First District House seat, Case has indicated he may well run against Akaka again. In any event, Republicans do not seem to have the ability to challenge for this seat unless Governor Linda Lingle runs. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 1 – Charles Djou (R)

The Honolulu seat is by any measure an overwhelmingly Democratic seat. Djou won this in May to replace Neil Abercrombie thanks mostly to a defect in Hawaii election law. The special election takes the form of an all party primary, but with no runoff. As the only Republican, Djou had a huge advantage because two credible Democrats, State Senate President Colleen Hanabusa and former Rep. Ed Case ran. Djou won with a weak plurality of 39% to 31% for Hanabusa and 28% for Case.

Djou is limited to one Democratic opponent in the general election in November. Democrats caught a break when Case opted against running in the general, clearing the field for Hanabusa. Given the results of the May election, Djou’s inability to get a fundraising edge (they are both well funded), and the state’s Democratic bent, Djou should be a dead duck. However, by all accounts he has acquitted himself well, and polling in this race is very close.

Djou should also benefit from expanded turnout in a good Republican year. The surge for Aiona cannot do anything but help him, as well.

This is an odd set of circumstances, and for that reason it is impossible at this time to be very certain about the outcome. However, I simply cannot pick Djou to win a race in a district in which he finished twenty points behind the Democrats five months ago. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 2 – Mazie Hirono (D)

Hirono has no threats in this safe Democratic “rest of the state” seat. Republican John Willoughby will get a brief mention on TV in November. Note of advice to Hawaii Republican candidates, I doubt that “securing the border” is a particularly pressing issue in Hawaii, so you might not want to make that the focus of the front page of your website. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House Predictions: 2 Democrats…+1 DEMOCRAT