State of the Day - Idaho

Idaho is one of America’s quiet boom area. It has become a center for growing businesses and retains much of its pioneer, self sufficient spirit. The state has attracted quite a few newcomers, most of whom have simply added to the state’s Republican majority. National Democrats are not popular here. However, as the economy has slipped Democrats have done a bit better, taking a House seat in 2008 against a controversial Republican incumbent.

Republicans want very much to retake that seat, but have not maximized their chances of doing so. Whatever happens, they certainly will not give up any more ground in 2010

President – 4 Electoral Votes

If you read stuff like this, you know the answer.

The May 22 primary will almost certainly not matter. If it does, both Mitt Romney (large Mormon population) and Sarah Palin (attended college here) have decent bases in Idaho. I would rate the contenders as 1. Romney, 2. Palin, 3. Thune, 4. Pawlenty, 5. Gingrich. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Governor – C.L. “Butch” Otter (R)

Proving Idaho leans more libertarian than Christian Coalition, keep in mind that Otter is a former Mr. Tight Jeans of the Rockin’ Rodeo in Boise. Otter easily survived a challenge from two disgruntled Tea Party candidates in the primary against Democrat Keith Allred. While his lead has gone from 20 points to the mid teens, he has no chance of losing. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Prediction: Gov. Otter (R) 58%, Allred (D) 42%

Senior Senator – Mike Crapo (R)

Crapo will undoubtedly suffer the biggest dropoff of any Senator from 2004 to 2010. Unlike 2004, Democrats bothered to nominate a token candidate this time, Tom Sullivan. Crapo will have to settle for winning by 40. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Prediction: Sen. Crapo (R) 70%, Sullivan (D) 30%

Junior Senator – James Risch (R)

As long as Risch remains careful with the width of his stance, he will have this seat as long as he wants. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – Walt Minnick (D)

Minnick won this overwhelmingly Republican seat (36% for Obama) in 2008 due mainly to the controversial, incompetent, and generally buffoonish freshman Republican incumbent Bill Sali. Since taking office, Minnick has compiled among the most conservative records of all House Democrats, consistently opposing major Democratic bills. He also has been among the most aggressive fundraisers of all freshman Democrats, raising $1.8 million.

Republicans caught a break when Sali declined to seek his old seat. They could not find a candidate easily, however, and when the NRCC found somebody it liked in the person of Vaughn Ward, he promptly lost the primary to self styled “extreme conservative” State Rep. Raul Labrador. The Republican nominee is an anemic fundraiser, with a mere $134,000 on hand. He recently moved his campaign office out of the district to save cash. Labrador seems like he is running in the socially oriented South rather than the libertarian oriented Idaho, slamming Minnick for voting to end the ban on internet gambling. He makes a big deal of his “outsider” status, rejecting NRCC help. He also has some skeletons. His immigration law firm received a failing grade from the Better Business Bureau. He also called Sali a great man. Minnick has won support from the Tea Party (even though he has a more liberal voting record than Tea Party anathema Michael Castle) and looks in good position to hold this seat even against a Republican wave. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 2 – Mike Simpson (R)

Compared to the people the Idaho Republicans come up with to contest the other seat (Labrador, Sali, Congress”man” Helen Chenoweth Hage), Simpson is a fresh breath of sane conservatism. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House Predictions: 1 Republican, 1 Democrat…NO CHANGE