State of the Day - Illinois

Illinois has a bit of everything: big city Democratic Chicago and Republican Downstate, corruption and high mindedness, political brutality and eloquence. Chicago has been one of America’s great metropolises of the last 150 years. It is a diverse, vibrant center of commerce, finance, and transportation. In the past century, Illinois has produced important political figures of both parties, most recently the President of the United States, Barack Obama. Traditionally, Democratic Chicago and Republican Downstate combined to create a great swing state, but over the past twenty years Illinois has become a rather Democratic state. It has been and remains a bastion of machine politics and corruption, on both sides. Chicago remains a Democratic bastion whose politics are dominated by the Mayor. The current (but retiring) Mayor, Richard Daley, has remained a popular figure and helped suburban Chicago shift Democratic, which has made the difference statewide. Democrats benefitted in the early 2000’s from corruption and scandals surrounding Republican Governor George Ryan and 2004 Senate candidate Jim Ryan, but had their own corruption issues which culminated in the 2009 impeachment and removal of Democratic Governor Rod Blagojevich. The stench of the fallout has ruined the political career of Senator Roland Burris and mortally endangered Democratic Governor Pat Quinn.

Those factors along with national Republican momentum may help foment a Republican comeback this year. Republicans have at worst 50-50 shot of taking back the Governor’s Mansion and Barack Obama’s old Senate seat. The GOP also has terrific chances of winning three, and perhaps four, House seats. Democratic offense is limited to the Democratic leaning House seat that Mark Kirk gave up to run for the Senate.

Illinois – 21 Electoral Votes

Illinois is not totally out of reach for Republicans in a big GOP year. However, one thinks that it would take quite a remarkable set of circumstances to put Barack Obama’s home state in play in 2012. Right now we are seeing such a set of circumstances. Democrats have taken over Illinois politics by cementing the votes of suburbanites. However, the Obama Democrats are losing these voters in droves, which suggests that Illinois really could be in play. If the election were today, I think it would take Obama’s hometown connections to pull it out.

The primary moves from Super Tuesday to March 20 for 2012, likely making the state irrelevant to determining the Republican nominee. I would rate the contenders as 1. Romney, 2. Thune, 3. Palin, 4. Pawlenty, 5. Gingrich. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

Governor – Pat Quinn (D)

Quinn became Governor in January, 2009 after the impeachment and removal of Governor Rod Buffoonovich. The new Governor had never really been viewed as a potential Governor, and faced immediate problems dealing with widespread ethical problems in state government and a fiscal disaster. He faced a strong primary challenge from State Comptroller Dan Hynes, and barely held it off by a little under 9,000 votes. Immediately after the primary, Democrats scrambled to contain the news that the nominee for Lieutenant Governor had a record of domestic violence. After much discussion the nominee resigned, but in true Illinois fashion, he is running as an independent candidate.

Republicans also had a very close primary, which saw State Senator Bill Brady defeat State Senator Kirk Dillard by 193 votes. Neither could reach even 21% in the voting.

Illinois is a Democratic state, but Blagojevich left a huge stink. Quinn’s approval rating are triple those of Blagojevich, but that still leaves him shy of 30%. Incumbents almost never survive such numbers. Still, Brady is unknown and Quinn has picked up positive publicity for proposing tough measures to deal with the state’s fiscal situation. Even so, he remains stuck in the mid-30’s, polling 5 to 10 points behind Quinn.

Through October, it appeared that Quinn was dead meat. However, Quinn has appeared to surge in the past three weeks, coinciding with the arrival of attack ads against Brady. In fact, the polling in this race has been inconsistent over the past three weeks, with results from Brady up by eight to Quinn up by six. Generally, Brady has a mid-single digit lead. Quinn also never polls much past the low 40’s. This leads me to conclude that Brady is ahead. Still, the fact that he hasn’t been able to put Quinn away bodes badly for him. I expect Quinn to surge in the end to reflect the Democratic nature of this state, but fall just short. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

Prediction: Brady (R) 51%, Gov. Quinn (D) 48%

Senior Senator – Richard Durbin (D)

The only race that matters here is Durbin’s subtle campaign for Senate Majority Leader in the case of Harry Reid’s defeat. Durbin will have no problems in 2014. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Junior Senator – Roland Burris (D)

Former Governor Rod Blagojevich appointed Burris to replace Barack Obama. Burris’s brief tenure was overwhelmed when it became clear had engaged in some shady dealings with Blagojevich and lied about it. Public furor and complete lack of support forced Burris to retire. Democrats have come up with another ethically questionable nominee to replace him, State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. He won a five candidate primary with 39%. Giannoulias ran a bank which has since gone bust, thanks in large part to bad loans. He also approved questionable loans made to convicted felon/influence peddler Tony Rezko. This is not the best profile for a candidate in 2010.

The Republican establishment united around moderate suburban Rep. Mark Kirk, who stomped a conservative challenger in the primary. Kirk has one of the more liberal voting records among House Republicans, a big plus in this race. Kirk had been doing well but this being Illinois, he ran into some problems. It came to light that Kirk had exaggerated his military experience and record rather badly. He also puffed up his previous teaching experience on his resume.

Unlike Richard Blumenthal, who had similar problems in Illinois, Kirk has no margin for error. The polling on this race has been incredibly tight all summer. For the most part, Kirk has held a lead of a point or two. In recent weeks, Giannoulias has started to lead some polls. Still, the race remains utterly too close to determine via polling.

In fact, there is simply nothing to separate the two candidates. This is a Democratic state, but it is also a Republican year. Kirk has some ethical and personality issues, but Giannoulias has even bigger problems. It is not clear to me that either candidate is well liked. In a race between, essentially, two bad candidates, I fall back on party identification in picking Giannoulias. Still, I expect this to be, along with the Nevada Senate race, the closest race in the election. Anybody who tells you they can pick the winner with certainty is lying. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

Prediction: Giannoulias (D) 50%, Kirk (R) 50%

House 1 – Bobby Rush (D)

Rush is the newest member of the Frank White Club, consisting of those who defeated a future President in an election. This is one of the safest Democratic seats in the nation. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 2 – Jesse Jackson Jr. (D)

Whatever problems Jackson had in the Blagojevich mess, they will not matter against Republican Isaac Hayes. Obama won 90% here. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 3 – Daniel Lipinski (D)

Lipinski was the one pro-life Democrat who held out and voted against the health bill, despite this safe Democratic district. Republican Michael Bendas has no chance. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 4 – Luis Gutierrez (D)

Gutierrez is hardly Mr. Popularity in Washington, but he has no effective opposition here. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 5 – Mike Quigley (D)

Quigley won this seat in April 2009 when Rahm Emanuel moved over to serve as White House Chief of Staff. Republican David Radowitz is no threat. Rumors swirled that Emanuel would return to oust Quigley, but his candidacy for Mayor of Chicago should put the kibosh on that. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 6 – Peter Roskam (R)

Roskam has nailed down this marginal district and has only token competition from Democrat Ben Lowe. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 7 – Danny Davis (D)

This is about as bad as gets for Republicans. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 8 – Melissa Bean (D)

In her three terms since knocking off complacent 35 year incumbent Phil Crane out of this marginal suburban seat, Bean has won smashing reelections by compiling among the most conservative records of any House Democrat. Still, in a year like 2010, this district should be competitive, especially after Bean supported the health care bill.

It might become so if there is a huge wave, but Republican Joe Walsh needs a better surfboard. He has less than $10,000, and is facing lawsuits from both a former campaign manager and the Eagles (the band). If he wins it will be entirely because of the Republican climate because Walsh is a disaster. This looks like another missed opportunity for the GOP. Still, a late September We Ask America poll showed the race tied, which just shows what a disastrous climate this is for the Democrats. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 9 – Jan Schakowsky (D)

Republican challenger Joel Pollak has raised over $500,000. He should give it all to Walsh. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 10 – Mark Kirk (R)

Kirk’s exit provides a headache for the GOP, because Kirk had mastered this Democratic leaning suburban district. Republicans nominated Bob Dold to replace him. Dold is trying to replicate Kirk’s social moderate/economic conservative formula, but his pro-choice credentials have been called into question. On economic issues, Dold promises to be more conservative than Kirk.

Democrat Dan Seals is running again after losing to Kirk in 2006 and 2008. He has greater name recognition, but losing in this district in 2006 and 2008 does not say much for his ability as a candidate. He’s also running as a pretty generic Democrat. Seals says he is ahead after leaking a Penn Schoen poll showing him up twelve points, but We Ask America says Dold is up 11 (after having Seals up three in August). I really don’t understand why anybody bothers with House polls.

Seals is trying to paint Dold with a Tea Party brush and tying him to efforts to privatize Social Security. Dold says Seals is part of the problem and that Seals is “burying his head in the sand” with regards to Social Security.

As of now, the race is a total tossup. This district is Democratic enough to where the default option should be Democrat. Still, if the Democratic situation erodes any further it might not matter. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 11 – Debbie Halvorson (D)

This district is as marginal as they come. Halvorson won it 58-34 in 2008 thanks to a big Democratic wind, but she still ran five percent ahead of Barack Obama. Her Republican opponent is veteran Adam Kinzinger.

I don’t usually read much into House polls, but the Democratic firm Penn Schoen has Halvorson down by twenty points, which confirms a We Ask America poll. Democrats seem to have cut bait on Halvorson, and that’s a good indication that she is done after one term. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 12 – Jerry Costello (D)

This is actually a marginal district, but you’d never know it based on Costello’s performances. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 13 – Judy Biggert (R)

Biggert should get a rare chance to relax this cycle. Democrat Scott Harper lost by ten here in 2008. He has no chance in 2010. SAFE REPUBLICAN

House 14 – Bill Foster (D)

Denny Hastert’s old Suburban Chicago/Northern Illinois seat has trended Democratic enough to where it could go either way in elections. Even so, Foster’s two 2008 victories here benefited greatly from a uniquely unappealing Republican opponent.

Foster has not shown any complacency, raising nearly $3 million for his reelection effort. Foster has maintained a generally moderate voting record, but raised some eyebrows with his vote for the Obama Health Care Bill. That vote alone made him extremely vulnerable.

Republicans nominated State Senator Randy Hultgren, who had to use most of his money to survive the primary. Still, he should be able to get his message out. He could really use an infusion of NRCC cash. He is really hitting Foster hard on health care and other “liberal votes”, and that should really resonate here. Hultgren led 44-37 in an August We Ask America poll.

Of the Illinois Democrats who are vulnerable, Foster is the second most likely to lose after Halvorson. He could hold on, but I think the atmospherics are too against him. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 15 – Tim Johnson (R)

The moderate Johnson should pound David Gill in this Republican leaning seat. SAFE REPUBLICAN

House 16 – Don Manzullo (R)

Manzullo’s greatest contribution to the GOP was his suggestion that the Illinois GOP invite Alan Keyes to run for the Senate in 2004. Somehow he kept his reputation past that, and will cruise past Democrat George Gaulrapp. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 17 – Phil Hare (D)

This Western Illinois seat seems pretty safe after Hare avoided any competition in 2008, but it really should be decent ground for the GOP. Hare was a longtime staffer for his predecessor, Lane Evans. He has never had a tough race until now.

Republicans put up a credible candidate this time in businessman Bobby Schilling. He has caught the attention of national conservative groups and his campaign seems to have gathered momentum. While few saw this as a pickup opportunity entering the cycle, Schilling has really made this a competitive race.

Hare irked the ire of conservatives by stating at a town hall meeting that he “doesn’t worry about the Constitution” when considering health care or other votes. Hare is working hard across the district touting projects he funded on the Transportation & Infrastructure Committee, which makes me wonder if he is out of touch in this very anti-DC climate.

We ask America has a poll showing Schilling up 41-38. I have a very low opinion of House polls, but it is worth considering. This has gone from a sleeper seat to one of the most competitive districts in the nation. I still pick Hare if you put a gun to my head, but this is a total coin flip. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 18 – Aaron Schock (R)

The boy wonder has only limited competition from Democrat DK Hirner. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 19 – John Shimkus (R)

Parts of this district are closer to Mississippi than Chicago. Democrat Tim Bagwell would do better if his first name was Jeff. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House Predictions: 11 Democrats, 8 Republicans…+1 REPUBLICAN.