State of the Day - Iowa

Iowa was settled by New England Yankees who built an ordered civil society, and for most of the nineteenth century it remained a stronghold of Yankee Republicanism. In the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, Iowa has struggled economically and failed to grow. However, the past twenty years have shown some improvement as Iowa has diversified its economy beyond agriculture and manufacturing. For years, the state had a sort of contrarian political outlook, opposing Franklin Roosevelt in 1940 and 1944 but voting for Michael Dukakis in 1988. Since then Iowa has reached a stasis as one of the most closely divided states, voting narrowly for Al Gore in 2000 and narrowly for George W. Bush in 2004, voting solidly for Barack Obama in 2008, and reelecting Senators of different parties while maintaining a balance in state politics.

This looks like a good Republican year. Former Republican Governor Terry Branstad appears assured of recapturing the Governor’s Mansion. Senator Charles Grassley should coast to re-election. The big challenge for Republicans will be trying to win the House seats held by Democrats Bruce Braley, Dave Loebsack and Leonard Boswell.

President – 7 Electoral Votes

Iowa voted right at the national average for President in 2000 and one point more Democratic than the average in 2004 and 2008. Thus, Iowa is certain to be contested in 2012. It will probably vote for the winner, but in a close election Democrats have a slight edge here. Under the current lineup of states, I cannot see a Democrat winning the White House without Iowa. President Obama’s current struggles give Republicans a definite edge for the moment.

Of course, Iowa’s caucuses will provide months of media fodder and the first test for the Republican nomination. Its practical effect will be to narrow the field. Mitt Romney will try to win with superior organization, but that did not help him in 2008 when Mike Huckabee beat him here. Romney can survive a loss here by winning New Hampshire. He has made recent comments implying that Iowa should not vote first, which definitely won't help him. Other candidates will need to win here. A Huckabee loss after his 2008 triumph would be fatal for him. With all the grassroots social conservatives and small town voters that make up her base, Sarah Palin will probably need to win Iowa too. Neighbors Tim Pawlenty and John Thune would suffer fatally if they lost a state in their backyard. Realistically, I cannot see more than one of those four surviving Iowa. The way the field looks right now, Iowa may be even more important than usual. I would rate the contenders as 1. Thune, 2. Pawlenty, 3. Palin, 4. Romney, 5. Gingrich. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Chet Culver (D)

Republican nominated former Governor (1983-1999) Terry Branstad to challenge Culver. The Governor trails by huge margins in every poll and has not topped 42% in a single poll. He has been reduced to running ads apologizing for his mistakes. This one’s over. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Prediction: Branstad (R) 58%, Gov. Culver (D) 41%

Senior Senator – Charles Grassley (R)

There was some buzz at one point that Grassley could be in trouble against Democrat Roxanne Conlin, but I cannot find any basis that would ever have supported that. Grassley is the most popular public figure in Iowa and will have this seat as long as he wants it. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Prediction: Sen. Grassley (R) 62%, Conlin 37%

Junior Senator – Tom Harkin (D)

Harkin is too liberal for Iowa and until 2008, he always had difficult reelection campaigns. But he has a very loyal base, won easily in 2008, and will be very tough to dislodge. If 2014 is a year like this one, Harkin could have problems, but otherwise he can probably hold this seat without much sweat. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 1 – Bruce Braley (D)

Before Braley won this seat in 2006, it had been held by a Republican for three decades. However, unlike most seats held by Republicans for 30 years, however, this Waterloo/Dubuque/Davenport/Northeast Iowa seat naturally leans Democratic. This has allowed him to put up a rather liberal voting record. He has campaigned hard around the district, touting money he has secured for pet projects and touring local flood damage. Republican Ben Lange has taken a different tack, commending Braley for his work on the floods but opposing federal funding to repair a dam breached in the flood. Braley has tried to attack Lange as an extreme conservative for supporting a two tiered income tax and hit him for taking "special interest" money, even though as an incumbent Braley has outraised Lange among PAC's 20 to 1 and has a large overall funding edge.

A Republican poll from early September had Braley up 50-39. He remains in much better position that many of his counterparts. This is the sort of seat that will require an 80 seat Republican tsunami to fall, and I still don't see that happening. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 2 – Dave Loebsack (D)

This Cedar Rapids/Iowa City/Burlington seat has come on the radar as of late. Mariannete Miller-Meeks lost 57-39 to Loebsack in 2008, but is back for another try. She should do much better this time. The climate obviously helps her, as does her ability to match Loebsack's funding. She is running a conventional 2010 Republican campaign, and therein lies the rub.

While it elected liberal Republican Jim Leach until 2006, this is a mostly Democratic district with enough cushion to keep a Democrat in a year like this. An early September Republican poll showed Loebsack up 47-39, indicating he is in command but not yet safe. If we take the 2008 result and say that this year is seven points more Republican than 2008, we have Loebsack winning 50-46, which is about right. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 3 – Leonard Boswell (D)

Boswell perpetually finds himself on target lists in this Des Moines based marginal seat. Boswell is downplaying the Obama agenda (which he has mostly voted for) and his health care vote, touting his role in legislation aimed at saving teacher jobs, promoting physical situation, and preventing suicide among service members. He has also brought Bill Clinton (but not Obama) into this district to campaign for him. Republicans have tried to hit Boswell over the head with donations from Charles Rangel.

Republicans think this is their year with State Senator Brad Zaun. Republicans are touting Zaun, even though his fundraising is probably not what they'd like. Zaun’s bigger problem is shooting himself in the foot with his mouth. His statements opposing ethanol subsidies and federal aid for local flood damage do not help his standing in the district and make him look like an ideologue.

Zaun has a better chance than Lange in the First District. Boswell has gotten to the point where he is making attacks on Zaun's personal finances, which indicates worry on his part. Zaun probably cannot win on his own merit, but if this race is a referendum on Boswell or the Democratic party, he has a very good chance. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 4 – Tom Latham (R)

Latham easily survived two big Democratic waves in this marginal seat and is safe this time against Democrat Bill Maske. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 5 – Steve King (R)

Democrats would love to knock “King Kong Krazy” out of this mostly Republican seat, but since they could not do it in Democratic years, even a respectable candidate like Matt Campbell will not come close in 2010. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House Predictions: 3 Democrats, 2 Republicans…NO CHANGE