State of the Day - Kansas

Kansas joined the nation in a moment of violence, sparked by the ill-conceived Kansas-Nebraska Act of 1854. After the Civil War, an antislavery majority created a reliably Republican state, where Democrats only competed during agricultural busts. Kansas is less agricultural now, but it is still very Republican. Rural Western Kansas is dying out, but suburban Kansas City is growing rapidly and attracting immigrants. This has helped split the Republican Party and given Kansas a sort of three party politics, with fierce battles between moderate and conservative Republicans. Democrats have been able to win some races when conservatives win the Republican primary but cannot hold moderate Republicans. Democratic Governor (2003-2009) Kathleen Sebelius and Reps. Dennis Moore (1999-) and Nancy Boyda (2007-2009) won their offices in this manner, but Republicans have maintained a total lock on Presidential races and Senate seats.

This year, it appears the Democrats are out of luck. Republican Senator Sam Brownback seems assured to win the open Governor’s Mansion. While Republicans had a nasty primary to replace Brownback, Democrats are in no position to replace him. The most important race in Kansas this year comes in the Third House District, where Republicans should take the seat of the retiring Dennis Moore and kick Democrats out of the state’s Congressional delegation.

President – 6 Electoral Votes

Kansas has not even approached voting for a Democrat for President since 1964, and it will not do so in 2012. The state has no Presidential primary. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Mark Parkinson (D)

Parkinson became Governor in April 2009 when Kathleen Sebelius resigned to become Health and Human Services Secretary. He immediately disclaimed any intention to run for a full term. Republican Senator Sam Brownback got in the race, which pretty much ends the discussion. He is a conservative Republican that can reliably win the moderate wing of the GOP, and that math is pretty airtight in Kansas. Polls show him leading Democratic State Senator Tom Holland by 25-30 points, There is no reason to think this is a race. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Prediction: Brownback (R) 66%, Holland (D) 34%

Senior Senator – Sam Brownback (R)

Brownback is vacating this seat to run for Governor. The election to replace him occurred in the primary, where Reps. Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt waged a nasty battle. Moran won by a margin of 50-45. Defeating Democrat Lisa Johnston will just be a formality for Moran. Three SurveyUSA polls since the primary have shown Moran leading by 40+ points. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Prediction: Moran (R) 71%, Johnston (D) 28%

Junior Senator – Pat Roberts (R)

Democrats felt oddly pumped about their candidate in 2008, but all they had to show for it was a 60-36 defeat. Democrats have not elected a Senator here since 1932, and there is no way they will do that by beating Roberts in 2014. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – Jerry Moran (R)

Moran gave up one of the safest Republican seats in the nation to move up to the Senate. State Senator Tim Huelskamp won a crowded Republican primary and will stomp Democrat Alan Jilka. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Lynn Jenkins (R)

Democrats actually won this seat in 2006 after conservative Republican Rep. Jim Ryun alienated enough moderate Republicans to lose the seat. The more moderate Jenkins defeated Ryun in the 2008 primary and restored order. Democrats could only come up with a token candidate this year. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – Dennis Moore (D)

Moore decided to retire from this marginal Lawrence/Suburban Kansas City seat. This created major problems for Democrats as Moore had seemingly iced this seat. His wife Stephene Moore is running to replace him, however. She is trying to run on a moderate/fiscal conservative record like her husband, but her support of the health care bill (her husband voted for it, as well as the stimulus bill and cap and trade) may be a killer in this district. Additionally, she has has shown her inexperience with several unforced errors and poor public performances. She also had less than $100,000 on hand for the October FEC filing.

Republicans nominated State Rep. Kevin Yoder and the national GOP seems excited about his chances. Yoder seems to have two issues, deficit/taxes and health care. He has much more money than Moore and has performed well. Even in swing districts, Democrats generally need the Republicans to have internal divisions to win races in Kansas. That did not happen this year. Combine that with the political climate and Yoder's superior peformance, and this is one of the ten most likely Democratic seats to switch to the Republicans, and the Republicans will pick up a heck of a lot more than ten seats. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 4 – Todd Tiahrt (R)

Tiahrt gave this safe Wichita based seat up in his unsuccessful bid for the Senate. Republicans nominated Mike Pompeo, who won a four candidate primary behind a barrage of negative ads. Pompeo accused one opponent of not being a Kansas resident, and an independent group “Common Sense Values”, ran an ad against another opponent in which a man goes to get a hunting license so he can “bag a RINO.” Pompeo claimed to not know who put that ad up. The end result of all this got him the win, but his opponents are thus far withholding support. Democrat Raj Goyle has raised a ton of money and is a shockingly good candidate. However, this seat gave John McCain 58% and is simply unwinnable for Democrats in a year like this one. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House Predictions: 4 Republicans…+1 REPUBLICAN.