State of the Day - Kentucky

Kentucky is a very white state with a large rural and blue collar population that is suspicious of powerful government, much like it was when it entered the Union in 1792. While the tobacco industry is declining, Kentucky still lacks a "twenty-first century style economy" based heavily on tech and service industries. Growth here has been slow and a very high percentage of residents here are native born. Democrats have always been dominant here and still do well in state elections, but on the Presidential level Kentucky has become reliably Republican. The GOP now holds both Senate seats, four of the six Congressional seats, and the state Senate.

Kentucky has a prominent national Senate race this year. Two term Republican Jim Bunning is retiring, and Republicans nominated Rand Paul, son of the Libertarian scion to replace him. Paul is a danger to himself with his mouth, but looks well positioned to hold the seat. Republicans also seek to take the two House seats held by Democrats.

President – 8 Electoral Votes

Kentucky (along with West Virginia, Tennessee, and Arkansas) has fallen totally out of reach for Democrats. Kentucky’s May 22, 2012 primary is highly unlikely to play any role in determining the GOP nominee. If it did that would mean there was a two person race, and if that happened I would pick whichever candidate is not Mitt Romney. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Steve Beshear (D)

Beshear’s victory in 2007 had more to do with the ethical problems of his opponent, Governor Ernie Fletcher, than anything positive Beshear did. After a rocky start, his approval ratings have rebounded to the mid 40's. This puts him right in the danger zone for reelection. The Democratic label will probably not help him here at all next year. Republicans Bill Moffett and State Senate President David Williams have already declared their candidacy. Republicans have two other potentially good candidates in Rep. Ed Whitfield and Secretary of State Trey Grayson. A June PPP poll showed Beshear essentially tied with Grayson, hovering around 40% of the vote. All the ingredients are present for a Republican win, and unless the economy turns around Beshear is in major trouble. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Mitch McConnell (R)

Democrats targeted the Majority Leader in 2008, and while they held him down they could not beat him. Since it would be hard to see a more anti-Republican year than 2008, it’s hard to see how McConnell will go down in 2014. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – Jim Bunning (R)

Bunning’s history of dumb comments, bizarre actions, and extreme positions had put this seat in jeopardy. With a little help from national Republicans, including McConnell, the Baseball Hall of Famer decided to call it quits. The Republican establishment united around Secretary of State Trey Grayson, but he lost the primary badly to libertarian and self-identified Tea Party candidate Rand Paul, son of the Texas Representative Ron Paul. Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway won his primary over Lt. Governor Daniel Mongiardo.

Like his father, Paul is a libertarian ideologue. Like most ideologues, he often fails to understand the point at which rigid ideology produces absurd public policy, leading to statements such as suggesting the Civil Rights Act of 1964 was an unnecessary infringement on freedom. Still, in 2010 in Kentucky, he has a ton of margin for error. Conway ran in the primary as the more liberal candidate, and supports cap and trade legislation as well as Obama’s health care bill. That is a deadly combination here.

Conway's campaign seems to consist entirely of the idea that Rand Paul is a nut. His biggest ad to date accused Paul of mocking Christianity and tying a woman up and forcing her to say that his God was "Aqua Buddha" (and you wonder why people are sick of politics). Paul seems to be stuck in the high 40's, and Conway is definitely gaining on him. October polling has him within 3-5 points. I still like Paul, however. An average Republican candidate would probably beat Conway by at least 60-40. Paul will win by much less which is an indictment of him as a candidate, but a good testament to how bad a time this is to be a Kentucky Democrat. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

Prediction: Paul (R) 52%, Conway (D) 48%

House 1 – Ed Whitfield (R)

This has become a very safe Republican district, and Whitfield has only token opposition. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Brett Guthrie (R)

Democrats ran hard here in 2008, but when a district rejects Democrats in an open seat in 2008, you know it is safe for the Republicans. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – John Yarmuth (D)

Democrats won this Louisville seat from Republican Anne Northup in 2006 and held it against her in 2008. Even though Northup had held it, it’s really quite marginal, going for John Kerry and giving Barack Obama 56%. This gives Yarmuth a better start than most of his endangered sophomore colleagues. He puts up a reasonably liberal voting record but is an occasional rebel, most notably loudly calling for the resignation of New York Rep. Charles Rangel over ethics charges and criticizing Democratic leaderhip for its campaign strategy.

Republicans nominated Todd Lally. He has picked up his fundraising lately and is a somewhat intriguing candidate. He is running as a standard Republican, with an emphasis on social issues. His advertising has used humor and uses his thick accent to paint Yarmuth as a tax and spender. Yarmuth is one of the few Democrats who has actually led in publicly released neutral polling. I think Yarmuth has done everything he can and this somewhere about the 80th most likely seat to flip to the Republicans. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 4 – Geoff Davis (R)

Democrat John Waltz is running a surprisingly vigorous campaign, but this seat has become unreachable for Democrats. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 5 – Harold Rogers (R)

Democrat Jim Holbert has about as much chance of winning as Louisville basketball coach Rick Pitino does of winning Man of the Year from the Family Research Council. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 6 – Ben Chandler (D)

This Lexington/Frankfort based seat is mostly Republican (55% for McCain), which automatically makes it competitive in a year like this. Still, Chandler is a difficult target. He has a good Kentucky name, routinely sports one of the most conservative records among House Democrats, and opposed TARP and the health care bill. He did support the cap and trade bill, which is not a positive in this district and has earned him visible opposition from the local coal industry.

Republicans nominated Andy Barr. He has been a prodigious fundraiser, but has other problems. He was a top aide to disgraced former Governor Ernie Fletcher. Apparently Barr was in charge of “compliance” and open records requests and fell a bit short in his duties. His whole campaign is to try to tie Chandler to national Democrats with misleading comments like "he voted with Nancy Pelosi 94% of the time."

In a year like this, Chandler could certainly drown in a wave. However, Barr is not a good candidate and I think that, combined with Chandler's long history of electoral success, will pull him through. Chandler's two big leads in CN2/Braun Research polls confirm this opinion. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House Predictions: 4 Republicans, 2 Democrats…NO CHANGE