State of the Day - Louisiana

Louisiana, with its charm, corruption, and horrendous public policy problems, is politically in a netherworld between the Deep South and a Latin American banana republic. The devastation caused by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 may just totally remake this fragile society. Despite the obvious vulnerability of New Orleans, Louisana's leadership and politically culture totally failed to prepare for or react to the storm. The incident destroyed the reputations of President George W. Bush and Democratic Governor Kathleen Babineaux Blanco. In reality, blame goes back generations and through all levels of government. The state was originally a colony of Spain and France (whose Napoleonic Code still forms the basis of law here), and has always relied on natural resources. Governor (1928-1932) and Senator (1932-1935) Huey Long might have been the most unabashedly populist political figure in American history, and his legacy still affects the state to this day. Since then the politics here has centered around Longs or their ilk (Earl and Russell Long, Edwin Edwards) and rarely victorious reformers (David Treen, Buddy Roemer, Bobby Jindal), and the state has fallen behind. Oil fueled a boom in the 1970's and bust during the 1980's, and since then gambling and tourism have played major roles. Population growth has been very slow and the New Orleans area lost population after Katrina. The state has become quite Republican in national elections, though personality is still more important than party on the state and local level. Still, the balance seems to be shifting toward Republicans. National Republicans do better in the Western part of the state, but Bobby Jindal's base vote came in the New Orleans suburbs. Jindal seems to be the first reform Governor to succeed, and this trend could change Louisiana politics.

For 2010, Republicans look in good shape to reelect David Vitter, the first post-Reconstruction GOP Senator here, in 2010. They also look certain to take one open House seat, but look equally likely to give back the New Orleans House seat won under fluke circumstances in 2008. The important figure now is Jindal, who is on his way to being the most successful reformist in Louisiana history. He is a rising Republican star and looks like a future Presidential candidate, though not in 2012.

President – 9 Electoral Votes

Louisiana has generally voted Democratic for President as long as the Democrats nominated somebody that could at least pass for a “good ‘ol boy”. Louisiana is more Republican now, and Democrats don’t look likely to nominate someone like that anytime soon. Louisiana's primary is the Saturday after Super Tuesday, so it may matter if the race becomes prolonged. Mike Huckabee, who won here in 2008, would seem to be the favorite if Bobby Jindal is not in the race. I'd definitely pick a socially conservative candidate, probably Gingrich or Palin, over Romney. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Bobby Jindal (R)

Jindal has high approval ratings and no obvious challenger. This is unlikely to go to a runoff in 2011. Jindal pointedly refused to endorse Senator David Vitter and would probably be in strong shape to challenge him in 2016. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Mary Landrieu (D)

In three elections, Landrieu has either had a miserable opponent or a huge Democratic year. Even so, she has never topped 52%. Her luck will run out at some point, very possibly 2014. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – David Vitter (R)

Vitter got in trouble for what he called “a very serious sin.” (Translation: he used the services of a prostitute). Many outsiders thought this was the end of him, but let’s not forget, this state elected admitted john Edwin Edwards four times. More to the point, national Democrats are not very popular in Louisiana right now. I mean, they're about as popular as a nun on Bourbon Street. Conservative Democratic Rep. Charlie Melancon is more than a respectable candidate, but it won’t matter this year. Vitter has a big cash advantage, polls in the high 50’s, and has huge leads over Melancon in every poll. There is no reason to think this will be close. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Prediction: Sen. Vitter (R) 58%, Melancon (D) 42%

House 1 – Steve Scalise (R)

This was one of the first places in the South to go Republican, and so it remains for Scalise against Democrat Myron Katz. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Joseph Cao (R)

Cao won this seat in 2008 due to a perfect storm (otherwise known as a "Bloomberg"). Yes, he got to run against Bill “Cold Cash” Jefferson, who will be spending 13 years as a detainee of the federal government. Hurricane Katrina dispersed many African-American voters to other districts. Cao also benefited from the abolition of the jungle primary, which otherwise would have put two Democrats in the runoff. Finally, due to Hurricane Gustav and the need for a runoff on the Democratic side, the general election occurred in December. Only with all of these factors in play, and an abysmal turnout, could Cao sneak through.

This is not just a Democratic district. This is NEW ORLEANS! It is 60% African-American. It gave 75% to Barack Obama. Obviously, Cao is very vulnerable. Democratic State Rep. Cedric Richmond won a competitive Democratic primary. This race has been very nasty, but in the end it won't matter. This district is simply too Democratic to elect a Republican under any normal circumstance. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 3 – Charlie Melancon (D)

The very conservative Melancon left this Southeast Louisiana seat to run for the Senate, leaving Democrats holding a soiled bag in a very Republican district. They did end up with a pretty good candidate in Ravi Sangisetty. He has raised $712,000 and is running a campaign focused almost exclusively on local issues, such as protecting the coast from oil and reforming the Army Corps of Engineers. He also wants to cut spending.

The Republican primary was won by political newcomer Jeff Landry. He is reminding everybody that he is A) not a Democrat and B) not an incumbent. There isn't much to say here because this is just too bad a year for Democrats to hold an open seat like this one. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 4 – John Fleming (R)

Democrats somehow came within 350 votes of winning this safe Republican seat in 2008, and probably would have won it had the election taken place in November instead of December. 2010 is not a year that makes districts like this good investment for Democrats, and nobody is investing in Democrat David Melville. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 5 – Rodney Alexander (R)

How on Earth did Alexander win this seat as a Democrat in 2002? Louisiana is changing and the conservative Democrats are dying off pretty quickly. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 6 – Bill Cassidy (R)

Democrats somehow managed to win a special election in this normally solid Republican district in 2008 thanks to the candidacy of serial loser Woody Jenkins, but the GOP won this seat back by a 48-40 margin in November. Democrat Don Cazayoux might have won had African-American State Senator Michael Jackson not received 12% as a third party candidate. The success was fleeting, because Democrats did not answer the bell here in 2010. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 7 – Charles Boustany (R)

In yet another example of the death of Louisiana conservative Democrats, this seat was held by conservative Democrat through in 2004 and nearly retained in that year. It is pretty safely Republican now, and Democrats have not put up an opponent. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House Predictions: 6 Republicans, 1 Democrat…NO CHANGE