State of the Day - Maine

Maine is historically a prototypically Yankee state but in recent years has shown a contrary streak in politics with a preference for third party candidates. In the past twenty years, it has shifted from agriculture and small manufacturing to tourism and high tech. While the economy on the coast has been humming, the interior of the state has been in steep decline and on the whole Maine has the oldest population in the country. Maine leans a bit to the left of the center but is generally independent and unpredictable. It last voted Republican for President in 1988 and routinely elects Democratic House members, but it elected an independent as Governor twice in the 1990's, loves its two liberal Republican Senators, and the Legislature is very volatile. Locally, the primary issue involves potential development or environmental protection of the nothern forests.

This election year features a wide open contest for the open Governor’s Mansion, which in true Maine fashion has a third party factor. Republicans also are looking to knock off the state's two Democratic Representatives, though that seems unlikely.

President – 4 Electoral Votes

Maine is a good Democratic state, but in a mirror image of 2008, a Republican would have about 50-50 odds of winning it. The way President Obama is going, that’s what we might see in 2012. Maine awards two electoral votes to the statewide winner and one electoral vote to the winner in each Congressional district. The Second District is about five points more Republican than the first district, meaning that the Republican would likely win one electoral vote if he could get within about six points of the Democrat statewide. If the election were today the Republican would almost certainly win the Second District.

Maine does not have a presidential primary. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

Governor – John Baldacci (D)

Baldacci has hit the term limit. Democrats nominated State Senate President Elizabeth “Libby” Mitchell to replace him. Mitchell seems to be suffering from a stink associated with Baldacci's unpopularity. She hasn't polled much over 30% the entire cycle.

The Republicans nominated Watertown Mayor Paul LePage. He is a social conservative who does not seem to fit the state very well. He has also seemed a bit on edge. He has faced repeated questions about his personal finances and angrily stormed out of a press conference when confronted with questions about the state's budget deficit. While he has led in polls the entire cycle, his numbers have steadily eroded to where he now consistently polls in the low 30's. This being Maine, we have two independent candidates. The most prominent is Eliot Cutler, a former aide to President Jimmy Carter and Maine Senator and Secretary of State Edmund Muskie. Naturally, you would think he takes more votes away from Mitchell. Unlike most third party candidates, he seems to be surging in polls as we get closer to the election, and is now pretty reliably in the high teens.

This is a mess. LePage is not a great candidate, but it's pretty obvious the Democrats aren't in good shape. Cutler should be able to take enough votes away from Mitchell to allow LePage to get an unimpressive win. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

Prediction: LePage (R) 37%, Mitchell (D) 32%, Cutler (I) 21%

Senior Senator – Olympia Snowe (R)

Snowe may be the most popular figure in Maine and she does not look beatable in 2012. Her bigger problem would be a Republican primary, but against whom? LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – Susan Collins (R)

Long thought vulnerable by Democrats, she stomped a strong Democratic challenger in a terrible Republican year in 2008. Unlike Snowe, however, she will probably face more strong competition. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – Chellie Pingree (D)

This Southern Maine seat is the more Democratic of the two, though it is not impossible for the GOP to win here. Since Pingree is a freshman in what looks to be a bad Democratic year, she has shown up on some GOP target lists.

Republicans nominated Dean Scontras, a firebrand conservative who has been campaigning with Grover Norquist. That is not the strategy I would recommend in Maine. Behind in several polls, Scontras has turned his attention to the finances of Pingree's fiance. That's the sort of desperation move we've seen more often with Democratic incumbents this cycle. Combined with the Democratic nature of the district and Pingree’s big funding edge, this looks to be a whiff for the GOP. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 2 – Michael Michaud (D)

This northern Maine seat should be a winnable seat for the GOP, and Michaud has won reelection easily. He does have a race this time, thanks in large part to some unpopular high profile votes.

Republican Jason Levesque has the same problems Scontras has, and Michaud’s socially conservative, pro-labor voting record works well here. Michaud has a huge fundraising edge, but national Republicans are blunting that somewhat. Michaud has led by double digits in multiple polls, and he looks well positioned to survive the wave. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House Predictions: 2 Democrats…NO CHANGE